I don't see SEAS5's current prediction as a blocked pattern, it's only indicating that the mean sea-level pressure may be in the upper tercile of climatology over central-northern Europe, which isn't dependent on blocking highs occurring there.
Also, the MJO activity isn't looking very strong. If it was, we'd probably see the lower stratospheric forcing outweighed with an abrupt switch to anomalously weak zonal winds there.
That being said, not all runs keep the MJO weak, so it bears keeping an eye on just in case.
The muted response with absence of much if any high pressure development around Greenland may be due to the stratosphere, where it appears a 'disconnect' will continue between anomalously strong zonal wind in the lower reaches & anomalously weak zonal wind higher up.
Most forecast model runs predict that the MJO will continue through phase 8 by around 10 days from now, but are only suggesting a partial response of the N. hemisphere pattern.
This makes for a less cold forecast for the eastern US in modelling versus composites.
As the MJO propagates eastward, the hemispheric pattern also shifts eastward during this coming week.
A subtle effect for N. America, but more pronounced for western Europe as the mainly dry, calm setup of recent days gives way to a highly changeable one with some wind & rain.
Recent & near-term northern hemisphere weather patterns look to be highly steered by MJO activity in phases 6-7 (i.e. over the tropical Pacific), judging by how well historical composites match with analysis & forecast modelling.
Zero sunshine for 3 days has wiped out the large surplus March 2026 had accrued by 5th here.
Though outweighed by mild nights, cool days have been enough to bring the mean temperature anomaly to-date closer to average, though still well above as of 8th.
At least it's not rained much!
Through 7th March 2026 is the 5th warmest in the Hadley mean Central England Temperature dataset.
After very mild conditions briefly return early next week, forecast models suggest generally near or below average temperatures. Could early March be the warmest spell of the month?
Had an unpleasant reminder this afternoon how quickly a reckless driver could severely change or end lives.
If I fully trusted driver signals, I'd be in a bad way or gone.
Had the cars collided, I might have been struck by either, or debris.
All because someone was impatient.
Spontaneous examination:
- Normalised global AAM generally follows the RONI but with occasional exceptions
- AAM often increases for a time before the onset of an El Niño event (RONI at least 0.5)
- Mid-2020 to late 2024, AAM was unusually 'choppy' & out of sync with the RONI
The model is unreliable sure, but "never" is going too far.
Despite being well out for the southeast corner, it had the right general theme for summer 2025 in Europe at this point last year.
It is however only a hint, with no clear signal for rainfall.
The temperature signal is however intriguing, as for a change it doesn't suggest an anomalously hot summer in Iberia. I imagine the very wet 2nd half to winter there is playing a role (but isn't the sole reason).
In ECMWF's latest seasonal modelling (SEAS5) for summer 2026, a marked 'cold pool' in the North Atlantic really stands out.
I've seen research tentatively linking that with an increased propensity for high pressure to the east of it, & SEAS5 hints at such a response.
Looks like cool (or relatively so for some) conditions could reach all but the far southeast of England tomorrow.
With a reduced push of warmth from the southeast against that cool air, there might not be much rain along the boundary zone, mostly just grey weather.
If you like spatial contrasts then this afternoon is one to admire, a wide area of England reaching near 17°C in dust-hazed sunshine while the eastern half of Ireland shivers at 4-5°C with persistent rain.
The 1991-2020 average number of days between is 153.
The 5 shortest:
2025, 106
2026, 110
1991, 121
2019, 123
1997, 129
The 5 longest:
1975, 214
2013, 205
1954, 200
1970, 194
1962, 191
Not an important statistic but interesting to those of a certain mindset 😄
On Tuesday, 2026 produced the 3rd earliest 16°C or higher on record in my local area.
The earlier two are 2019 (25th Feb) & 1977 (2nd Mar).
What's more, this follows the 2nd latest 16°C or higher last year, which is 110 days prior. The time between is 2nd shortest on record.
...so despite the limited forecast model interest, I'm keeping an open mind on the possibility of high pressure locating further north relative to Europe in the second half of the month, bringing a risk of some late chilly/cold spells of weather affecting parts of the continent.
There are also only tentative hints of that in the ECMWF ensemble.
To my eye the main reason looks to be forcing from the tropics favouring a deep trough in the vicinity of Greenland, a pattern which can be difficult to break down.
OTOH models are prone to over-persistence...
The long-anticipated major sudden stratospheric warming event has now begun.
Yesterday's 12z GFS suggested the troposphere *might* become receptive to its impacts in 2nd half March, favouring blocking patterns at the mid-high latitudes, but the model isn't consistent on that.
When you see a rare colour variant without even realising at the time…
They look to be brown belted Galloway cows, chilling in the corner of a patch of heathland/gorse. Not at all bothered about my sudden appearance from around the bend.
Two areas of loitering fog &/or stratiform cloud have made for an unusual temperature pattern across England this afternoon.
A warmer slice running from NW Wales to Surrey, sandwiched by relatively cool conditions (but only a little below average for early March).
Overall, 2026 is a standout for temperatures during the period 20th February to 3rd March here.
Judging by the forecast, it will remain so through at least the end of this week, even if Friday turns out relatively cool (it might 'only' reach around 10°C... near-average!).
From 26th Feb onward, it's been shattering the record for the highest mean daily minimum temperature to-date here.
Since 20th February, 2026 has been doing battle with 2019 for the title of "warmest mean daily maximum temperature" here in NE Dorset.
Likely a similar story for much of SW & CS England.
Correction, a median not a mean 😅
Checking on how the UK named storms season compares to others since routine naming began in 2018.
A slightly above average season to-date by this measure, with the caveat that a mean of 7 years is not much of a basis to go by.
I wonder what 2013-14 would have looked like!
I was struck by how chilly it felt early this morning here, with the lowest temperature reading since 17th February.
It was 2.7°C, very near the 1991-2020 average for early March. Says a lot really.
Two types of fog exist within England this morning: Radiation fog across many eastern areas, & sea fog along much of the southern & south-eastern coast.
As for next week, I'm afraid there are signs of more unsettled weather returning as Atlantic lows make inroads from the west, with generally cooler temperatures.
Uncertain just how quickly & aggressively that occurs. Risk of a windstorm around Friday 13th... unlucky for some?
