Michal Onderco's Avatar

Michal Onderco

@profonderco

Professor of International Relations at Erasmus University Rotterdam, affiliated with Charles University in Prague. VU Amsterdam, EUI, CISAC, WIAS-alum. Nuclear weapons | foreign policy | CEE

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16.10.2023
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Latest posts by Michal Onderco @profonderco

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Trump might start a war with Iran. Can anyone stop him? Trump might start a war with Iran. Can anyone stop him? Congress, public opinion, and administration insiders aren’t reliable constraints on Trump’s foreign policy decisions.

Quick reactions after learning that no, nobody could stop him. 1/ goodauthority.org/news/trump-m... 1/

28.02.2026 11:54 👍 643 🔁 240 💬 16 📌 48

If you have time to read only one thing on today’s strikes, make it @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social ‘s analysis in @thebulletin.org .

28.02.2026 10:26 👍 15 🔁 4 💬 0 📌 0

The "debate" in the run-up to this makes Iraq 2003 look like the Athenian polis.

28.02.2026 07:54 👍 417 🔁 75 💬 4 📌 0
Matti Pesu, Katja Creutz and Michal Onderco on stage.

Matti Pesu, Katja Creutz and Michal Onderco on stage.

This week at a FIIA seminar, @profonderco.bsky.social,
@pesumatti.bsky.social and Katja Creutz discussed the complexity of democratic foreign policy-making on nuclear security in the twenty-first century.

Watch the recording ⤵️
fiia.fi/en/tapahtumat/europes-nuclear-umbrella

26.02.2026 07:59 👍 6 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0

This was a great event, and i’m very thankful to Andrej Findor for organizing it!

19.02.2026 11:45 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Mijn eerste keer op nederlandse live radio, en dan bij @ovt-vpro.bsky.social !

15.02.2026 12:43 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

What nuclear options does Europe have with less US; or without?

Our study is now published 👇 , a fantastic teamwork of the European Nuclear Study Group, co-chaired by @tobiasbunde.bsky.social James Davis & myself.

12.02.2026 11:53 👍 102 🔁 26 💬 1 📌 0
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Representation matters: Technocracy, populism, and attitudes towards international organisations | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core Representation matters: Technocracy, populism, and attitudes towards international organisations - Volume 65 Issue 1

65.1🦋

Attitudes toward international organisations? 🌍

Exploring #Technocratic & #Populist attitudes, Reinout van der Veer & @profonderco.bsky.social use survey data across five European 🏤 countries to explain how people view #InternationalOrganisations

12.02.2026 09:49 👍 4 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0
Europe's Nuclear Deterrence Options table.

Europe's Nuclear Deterrence Options table.

Interesting attempt to summarize Europe's deterrence options/dilemmas on page 56 of the @munsecconf.bsky.social European deterrence report. securityconference.org/en/publicati...

11.02.2026 18:05 👍 62 🔁 14 💬 2 📌 1
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Thanks to everyone for joining the launch of Europe’s Nuclear Umbrella yesterday in The Hague. Thanks especially to the discussants Michaele de Goeij, @lindedesma.bsky.social and Sico van der Meer.

11.02.2026 11:33 👍 4 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Priblížil sa svet k jadrovej vojne? Posledná atómová dohoda medzi USA a Ruskom vypršala Systém dohôd obmedzujúcich počty a nasadenie jadrových zbraní medzi Spojenými štátmi a Ruskom sa rozpadol.

A few words (in Slovak) about #NewSTART by @profonderco.bsky.social for @pravdask.bsky.social. spravy.pravda.sk/svet/clanok/...

05.02.2026 07:18 👍 3 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

Final update: The translator sent a very kind email to explain the context around all this. If even a single Iranian can draw strength from the book, I'm glad it was published in Farsi. It's an honour and I hope you will succeed

04.02.2026 13:26 👍 14 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0
We verdiepen de Europese defensiesamenwerking. We zetten in op gezamenlijke 
aanschaf in gebruikerspoules van strategische capaciteiten die voor individuele landen 
te kostbaar zijn. Nederland loopt voorop in het realiseren van een Europese pijler 
binnen de NAVO. Ook staan we constructief tegenover het versterken van een 
Europese nucleaire afschrikking. We treden toe tot het verdrag van Aken

We verdiepen de Europese defensiesamenwerking. We zetten in op gezamenlijke aanschaf in gebruikerspoules van strategische capaciteiten die voor individuele landen te kostbaar zijn. Nederland loopt voorop in het realiseren van een Europese pijler binnen de NAVO. Ook staan we constructief tegenover het versterken van een Europese nucleaire afschrikking. We treden toe tot het verdrag van Aken

Netherlands will be "constructive" towards the "strenghtening of a European nuclear deterrent"

They will join the Treaty of Achen (Franco-German defence cooperation treaty)

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aachen_...

30.01.2026 17:37 👍 7 🔁 3 💬 1 📌 0

As someone who sat on the Sartori Prize cmte last yr, I have to say that RISP consistently delivers clever high-quality papers with good data and relevant questions. Hard to find another “national” journal in Europe with such good quality. This paper fits the pattern.

23.01.2026 10:46 👍 4 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 1
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Are nuclear issues at the heart of the Russia-Iran relationship? Interview with Nicole Grajewsi

As some of you already know, I recently moved to Paris for a tenure-track Assistant Professor position at @ceri-sciencespo.bsky.social @sciencespo.bsky.social. Here is a recent interview I did on my research agenda and background. www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/en/news...

22.01.2026 13:07 👍 57 🔁 5 💬 1 📌 0
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Book Launch: Europe’s Nuclear Umbrella On Tuesday 10 February 2026, Dr. Michal Onderco will present his latest book “Europe’s Nuclear Umbrella”, recently published by Cambridge University Press.

If you’re in The Hague: join the official book launch on 10 February 2026.
I’ll be discussing the book with Sico van der Meer, Michaele de Goeij, and Linde Desmaele.

More info: www.eur.nl/en/essb/even...

08.01.2026 12:35 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

To the best of my knowledge, this is the first comparative study of contestation around nuclear sharing across all five host countries.
It draws on original data on public opinion, political parties, and civil society, and is written with non-specialists in mind.

08.01.2026 12:35 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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Europe's Nuclear Umbrella | Cambridge University Press & Assessment

Today Europe’s Nuclear Umbrella is officially out.
The book examines how nuclear sharing is contested across Europe, and why governments stick with these policies even when they’re deeply unpopular.
www.cambridge.org/nl/universit...

08.01.2026 12:35 👍 8 🔁 6 💬 1 📌 1

Never had the pleasure of meeting David Malone, but we corresponded and he had an incredibly generous mind. May his soul rest in peace!

03.12.2025 05:50 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Getting beyond nuclear deterrence: a research agenda For eight decades, the practice of nuclear deterrence has been treated as common sense in many influential policy-making and scholarly circles. This remains the case although most states neither po...

The Nonproliferation Review published the first of 2 special issues from the Harvard–MacArthur Beyond Nuclear Deterrence Working Group.

#OpenAccess intro by the 3 working group co-chairs & special issue editors, Hassan Elbahtimy, @professorrdg.bsky.social, & me: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

02.12.2025 19:44 👍 3 🔁 4 💬 0 📌 0
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Who Cares: Why the Israeli–Palestinian Conflict Matters (More) to Some EU Member States What drives the salience of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict amongst EU member states? This article employs domestic foreign policy theories to explain the factors underlying variation in salience, e...

Why do some EU members “care” more about the 🇮🇱-🇵🇸 conflict than others?

Together with @valeriovignoli.bsky.social and @irena-kalhousova.bsky.social , we argue this is due to domestic polarization, demography and trade patterns.

Read more in #openaccess onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

02.12.2025 06:10 👍 7 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

Happy to give a book talk: Europe: flexible | US: late March | E Asia: mid-spring. If your class or group is interested in nuclear weapons, democracy, or alliances, let’s talk!

26.11.2025 19:26 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Europe's Nuclear Umbrella | Cambridge University Press & Assessment

🎉 Excited to share that “Europe’s Nuclear Umbrella” @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org will be out in physical form before Christmas. It tells the story of how Europeans contest nuclear weapons - and how policymakers react. Pairs perfectly with hot and cold beverages. ☕

www.cambridge.org/9781009698672

26.11.2025 19:26 👍 4 🔁 1 💬 2 📌 0

The BBC report screenshot in your first post is also not about Eindhoven

23.11.2025 08:05 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Optreden tegen drones boven vliegbasis Volkel Defensie is vrijdagavond tot actie overgegaan toen tussen 19.00 en 21.00 uur meerdere drones werden gezien boven vliegbasis Volkel. De drones zijn waargenomen door bewakingspersoneel. Luchtmachtperson...

Also the official press release of @minvandefensie.bsky.social www.defensie.nl/actueel/nieu...

23.11.2025 07:54 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 1
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Luchtmacht heeft wapens ingezet tegen 5 tot 10 drones boven vliegbasis Volkel De drones werden gezien door bewakingspersoneel, waarna luchtmachtpersoneel vanaf de grond wapens inzette om ze neer te halen.

Yesterday’s article about Volkel nos.nl/l/2591497

23.11.2025 07:53 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 2 📌 0

“Personeel van de Koninklijke Luchtmacht heeft gisteravond vanaf de grond geprobeerd om drones neer te halen die boven vliegbasis Volkel werden gezien. Dat gebeurde met wapens, meldt het ministerie van Defensie in een persbericht.” First para of the NOS

23.11.2025 07:48 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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Luchtmacht heeft wapens ingezet tegen 5 tot 10 drones boven vliegbasis Volkel De drones werden gezien door bewakingspersoneel, waarna luchtmachtpersoneel vanaf de grond wapens inzette om ze neer te halen.

“Wapens ingezet” nos.nl/l/2591497

23.11.2025 07:42 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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Organizing nuclear policies in Europe: of bricoleur plurality, architect absence, and spoiler disruption - International Politics A major question in organizing European security is how Europe should deal with nuclear weapons. Historically, extended nuclear deterrence and later multilateral nonproliferation and bilateral arms co...

Our paper with Ulrich Kühn @ifshhamburg.bsky.social on organizing nuclear policies in Europe has now an issue! Who are the architects, and who are the bricoleurs? Read in #openaccess at Intl Politics link.springer.com/article/10.1...

21.11.2025 14:53 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

DL on Wednesday!

10.11.2025 08:11 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0