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The @thetimes MRP results for Wales. Just four seats would change hands, three from Labour to Reform and one from Labour to the Conservatives.
Labour holding on in most seats, and the Conservatives unable to regain key marginals, with Reform taking a significant chunk of votes across the nation
Just catching up with this @thisislisapower.bsky.social Great pic. Lovely words. www.thetimes.com/static/lgbtq...
Deryn project Labour just 25 seats. That’s fewer than current number of Labour MSs, despite Senedd expansion ⬇️
The Seat Projector shows the projected seats at a local level, based on the current twinned constituencies out for consultation.
All the same issues for people who feel left behind, and all the same media, but with a PR electoral system. Plus the Welsh Conservatives are not seen as serious opposition, and Welsh Labour has punched itself in the face.
For a party that has averaged 37% in the polls over the last decade, this is somewhat suboptimal for Welsh Labour.
That YouGov poll when you put it through my seat projector for the Senedd Elections.
Labour 25
Reform 25
Plaid Cymru 24
Conservatives 19
Lib Dems 2
Green 1
The first time the projected Lab numbers have been so low that the Lab/PC coalition would need the Lib Dems or Green for a stable majority.
The other option is to stick to the right and see if they can chip away and get some of their core vote back from Reform. But to what end?
The latter is a strategy designed for opposition. After 25 years of opposition
If they want any chance of doing the latter, which is *somewhat of a long shot as a basis for a stable government*, they would need a leader better able to reach across the Siambr to Plaid Cymru and work in a non-Labour minority, or a majority with Reform.
Which way is the Senedd Conservative Group going to go? Do they have an alternative candidate in place who would have the confidence of members? Only two majority groupings possible after the next election in 2026. Either Labour/Plaid Cymru, or Plaid Cymru/Conservatives/Reform.
Pelvis III
Pelvis III https://www.wikiart.org/en/georgia-o-keeffe/pelvis-iii
Superbly put together but Iesu Grist the PTSD. What a bloody job.
Just testing....
Daw eto haul ar fryn
And our Seat Projector for the Senedd Elections in 2026 suggests the following outcome based on Survation's Senedd voter intention numbers.
Labour 29
Plaid Cymru 23
Reform 22
Conservatives 19
Lib Dems 2
Green 1
It's either Lab/PC, or a non-Lab gov which relies on PC, the Cons AND Reform.
We've mapped Survation's latest Welsh Westminster poll. Headline Voter intention figures in the poll:
Labour 33%
Reform 21%
Conservative 18%
Plaid Cymru 13%
Liberal Democrats 9%
Green 5%
