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Daniela Scur

@danielascur

Torontonian. Economist. Sometimes professorial, (ex?)airplane dweller, rowing enthusiast, whisky lover. Account is mostly whisky, dogs and some econ. ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น danielascur.com

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25.07.2023
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Latest posts by Daniela Scur @danielascur

Preview
a woman is sitting in front of a sign that says `` god yes ! '' Alt: a woman is sitting in front of a sign that says `` god yes ! ''

^ seconded!!!

04.03.2026 01:22 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Omg I'd watch that immediately

04.03.2026 01:18 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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PhD student Pakasa Bary presented his paper which documents a steepening of the Phillips Curve after the pandemic and develops a macro framework linking this shift to changes in remote working.

03.03.2026 20:17 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Lol spot on

03.03.2026 23:53 ๐Ÿ‘ 4 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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For researchers working with the IPEDS dataset (nces.ed.gov/ipeds/), which can be kind of a bear to work with, especially over time, I've constructed some code to harmonize the data into a single DuckDB database

github.com/paulgp/ipeds...

02.03.2026 22:18 ๐Ÿ‘ 48 ๐Ÿ” 12 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 2

You're just an incredible bundle of talent

01.03.2026 17:48 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I can't wait to not trip over one on every block!

26.02.2026 10:38 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Congrats Michael!!

24.02.2026 01:25 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Why do I have to pretend that I'm going to print something in order to save it as a PDF. Why do I have to engage in a little ruse.

23.02.2026 21:43 ๐Ÿ‘ 19286 ๐Ÿ” 2923 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 344 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
Heavy wet snow on trees

Heavy wet snow on trees

Heavy wet snow on white trees and on the ground

Heavy wet snow on white trees and on the ground

Beautiful heart attack snow in Ithaca today

23.02.2026 14:52 ๐Ÿ‘ 12 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Wish I lived next door!

23.02.2026 02:27 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Should not be watching this game with a sleeping baby on me

22.02.2026 15:05 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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What if you could walk Stanfordโ€™s campus alongside leading minds as they unpack the ideas shaping the economy, business and public policy? Introducing Econ To Go โ€” our new video podcast launching Tues. 2/24. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts!

19.02.2026 20:00 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
More Hours, More Work: Head Start Expansions Boost Maternal Employment

by Chloe Gibbs, Esra Kose, and Maria Rosales-Rueda

Abstract: Womenโ€™s employment remains highly sensitive to childcare constraints, making childcare availability a critical lever for supporting mothersโ€™ labor force attachment. We study the effects of expanded full-day programming in Head Start, using the 2016 federal funding initiative that targeted grantees with low full-day enrollment. Linking administrative program data, geo-coded center locations, and household data on employment, we estimate a difference-in-differences design by comparing mothers of young children in treated and untreated areas. The policy increased full-day enrollment by 19 percent and raised single mothersโ€™ employment (1.9%), hours (2.5%), and earnings (6.5%). Results show that extending program duration meaningfully improves maternal labor market outcomes.

More Hours, More Work: Head Start Expansions Boost Maternal Employment by Chloe Gibbs, Esra Kose, and Maria Rosales-Rueda Abstract: Womenโ€™s employment remains highly sensitive to childcare constraints, making childcare availability a critical lever for supporting mothersโ€™ labor force attachment. We study the effects of expanded full-day programming in Head Start, using the 2016 federal funding initiative that targeted grantees with low full-day enrollment. Linking administrative program data, geo-coded center locations, and household data on employment, we estimate a difference-in-differences design by comparing mothers of young children in treated and untreated areas. The policy increased full-day enrollment by 19 percent and raised single mothersโ€™ employment (1.9%), hours (2.5%), and earnings (6.5%). Results show that extending program duration meaningfully improves maternal labor market outcomes.

๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจ It's new research week for me on the socials! ๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจ

First up, just released today as an NBER working paper:

"More Hours, More Work: Head Start Expansions Boost Maternal Employment" with fantastic coauthors Esra Kose and Maria Rosales-Rueda

www.nber.org/papers/w34831

17.02.2026 01:48 ๐Ÿ‘ 75 ๐Ÿ” 32 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

When in the lifecycle of having kids can I look forward to being able to play again? When??

16.02.2026 14:38 ๐Ÿ‘ 4 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Dictionary account y'all. ๐Ÿ”ฅ

15.02.2026 00:20 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

if you're an older person who finds words like mogg and maxxing annoying, just starting using them. people over the age of 30 have the superpower to end trends by simply adopting them

14.02.2026 01:50 ๐Ÿ‘ 24860 ๐Ÿ” 2903 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1062 ๐Ÿ“Œ 493
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I've built a new tool!

You can upload your pre-analysis plan or registered report, pre-submission to a registry or journal, and it will screen it for completeness, clarity, and consistency. 1/ ๐Ÿงต

13.02.2026 20:21 ๐Ÿ‘ 31 ๐Ÿ” 14 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 3 ๐Ÿ“Œ 2

Those days are precious!

14.02.2026 10:52 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
It must be very hard to publish null results
Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

It must be very hard to publish null results Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.

11.02.2026 17:00 ๐Ÿ‘ 641 ๐Ÿ” 223 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 30 ๐Ÿ“Œ 51
Preview
Postdoctoral Fellow in Economics of Education in Medford, for Tufts University Exciting opportunity in Medford, for Tufts University as a Postdoctoral Fellow in Economics of...

Postdoc posting: Economics of education at Tufts with my colleague Elizabeth Setren.

main.hercjobs.org/jobs/2203818...

11.02.2026 21:20 ๐Ÿ‘ 14 ๐Ÿ” 15 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 2

The PTSD of those lessons is so real (and so valuable).

12.02.2026 01:28 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

if you played sonic the hedgehog and put down the controller, sonic would look at you and tap his foot impatiently. this was proof that sega genesis cartridges had souls. the decision was made to make the storage cases a lot larger than the cartridges so they would have room to move around in there

11.02.2026 15:58 ๐Ÿ‘ 7504 ๐Ÿ” 1455 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 67 ๐Ÿ“Œ 43
A pull down dish rack over a sink. Absolute genius. Except you do have to wash your dishes with your bare hands. Well maybe not bare, you can wear gloves. But you do have to wash your own dishes.

A pull down dish rack over a sink. Absolute genius. Except you do have to wash your dishes with your bare hands. Well maybe not bare, you can wear gloves. But you do have to wash your own dishes.

A cabinet closed with the dish rack inside. Dishes hidden away! Hopefully washed.

A cabinet closed with the dish rack inside. Dishes hidden away! Hopefully washed.

When I lived in Europe my house had dish rack cabinets, where you just place your dishes into the cabinet over the sink and they drip/dry and then you just pull them out again. Dishwashers are less of a thing though so the washing still needs to be done. Can't win them all.

11.02.2026 00:51 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Beautiful!!!!

10.02.2026 01:57 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
New study reveals a "smartphone penalty" that distorts survey results Professor Carly Urban at the University of Montana says respondents who use smartphones in online surveys are more likely to answer questions incorrectly compared to those who answer surveys on comput...

When we use smartphones to respond to surveys, compared to a laptop or tablet, we're more likely to answer incorrectly, or say we don't know. Economist @carlyurban.bsky.social is calling this "the smartphone penalty" in a new working paper.

www.marketplace.org/episode/2026...

09.02.2026 15:37 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 3 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
guthib.com with a big note saying "You spelled it wrong."

guthib.com with a big note saying "You spelled it wrong."

Just learned about the most delightful domain name typo holding page for guthib dot com

(catching up on old 99% Invisibles)

07.02.2026 18:51 ๐Ÿ‘ 32 ๐Ÿ” 4 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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My manuscript "The Economics of Noncompete Clauses" is now out in the Journal of Economic Perspectives.

Few topics have garnered more debate and policy attention over the last few years. This article brings us up to speed on the debate and the current answers.

pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...

04.02.2026 17:18 ๐Ÿ‘ 43 ๐Ÿ” 13 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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@chflachsland.bsky.social and I are looking for an RA -- please share widely!

03.02.2026 19:23 ๐Ÿ‘ 6 ๐Ÿ” 5 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

Come be my colleague @dukesanford.bsky.social!

I'm chairing this search for the inaugural Rosen Family Professor of the Practice--an experienced scholar-practitioner--and am happy to field questions via the email in the job post.

More details in the posting below ๐Ÿ‘‡๐Ÿ‘‡๐Ÿ‘‡

02.02.2026 23:11 ๐Ÿ‘ 17 ๐Ÿ” 17 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1