Justin Wolfers

Seems troubling.

More troubling would be the idea that the Administration might have bombed Iran without expecting this.

No-one actually expects gas prices to rapidly return to normal.

Weak jobs numbers => The Fed is more likely to consider rate cuts, sooner.

"The latest employment report just came out... and this is my worried face."

My advice to the Administration: With the U.S. uncomfortably close to a recession -- and already in a jobs recession -- don't do anything rash that could make things worse.

No-one is happy about the jobs report.

Minor aside: If you calculate the extra decimal places, the unemployment rate this month is 4.44%. So it's really just a hair from being reported as 4.5% instead of 4.4%.

Here's the point to remember about the brutal negative revisions in today's job market report: They aren't saying the labor market showed green shoots that withered. It's saying that there never were any green shoots. They were an illusion.

While employment in health care shrank this month, it continues to account for more than all of the jobs created over the past year.

My brow is furrowed as I type and graph this.

This is not good.

The U.S. economy has lost jobs since "Liberation Day."

The economic story just changed dramatically.

Payrolls fell -92k in Feb. Jan growth was revised down by -4k to +126k. And Dec revisions subtracted -64k to -17k.

Unemployment rate up a tick to 4.4%.

Recession questions are back on the menu

Trump, Markets, And “TACO”: Why The Usual Warning Signal May Fail In Iran, Warns Justin Wolfers What happens when the U.S. starts a war—and the biggest economic pain lands somewhere else? Financial markets are a real-time forecasting machine: billions of dollars placed on bets about the…

Here's what worries me. The U.S. is less oil-dependent than our peers, and so Wall Street has responded far less to the war in Iran than financial markets abroad. When the country calling the shots feels only a small share of the pain, that's a dangerous asymmetry.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfTL...

An Asymmetry That Matters: An American War That Hurts Our Allies More, Explains Justin Wolfers What happens when the U.S. starts a war—and the biggest economic pain lands somewhere else? Financial markets are a real-time forecasting machine: billions of dollars placed on bets about the…

There's an economic asymmetry around the war in Iran that really worries me.

Lemme explain. www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfTL...

I just can't tell what's a throwaway line, what's a joke, and what's a policy announcement these days.

Is the President serious about an embargo on Spain?

What You Need To Know About the Economic Fallout From War with Iran -- from Justin Wolfers Could the Iran strikes trigger another 1970s-style stagflation—or is that the wrong mental model? In the first 48 hours after President Trump launched Operation Epic Fury and bombed Iran, the best…

Here's my talking head -- armed with charts, macro models and financial market movements -- trying to help you make sense of the possible economic fallout from the war with Iran.
youtu.be/deeGtvlUtaI

What You Need To Know About the Economic Fallout From War with Iran -- from Justin Wolfers Could the Iran strikes trigger another 1970s-style stagflation—or is that the wrong mental model? In the first 48 hours after President Trump launched Operation Epic Fury and bombed Iran, the best…

Here's my talking head -- armed with charts, macro models and financial market movements -- trying to help you make sense of the possible economic fallout from the war with Iran.
youtu.be/deeGtvlUtaI

The American Economy: How Unchecked Executive Power Affects the Market| Principles First Summit 2026 Policy experts examine how executive authority impacts markets, economic stability, and institutional trust at the Principles First Summit 2026.

I took part in a panel at the recent Principles First summit, and was overjoyed to share the stage with Jessica Riedl and Francis Fukuyama, and the whole thing is available online, if you want to watch.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=iiUJ...

We need better economics education. #teachecon

Here's the optimist's case: There's a lot the President can do to address affordability.

A “serious and responsible discussion” would start with the data, name the trade-offs, and propose fixes. Magical thinking isn’t a program; it’s an alibi.

"If you compare the United States to every other industrialized country and you rank them from the very best to the very worst, the American stock market comes 21st out of 23."

"Are Americans better off now than they were a year ago?"

If you were worried the Supreme Court tariff decision undermined the Administration's "deals", let me put your mind at rest.

Those "deals" were more reality TV than trade policy: Press conferences, bullet points, and praise, but little substance.

The tell: None were ever signed

"When the dollar falls in value... it takes more of our dollars to buy stuff from abroad." That’s the basic math of a weaker currency: imports cost more, and so do the everyday items with imported parts. The upside is that our exports are a better buy for foreign buyers.

Interviewer: "What's your take on how he's framing the economy?"
Me: "It's that he's lying."

On immigration: "I often am asked to speak as an economist. And what we should never lose sight of is that each of us is a moral being. And you, as I, have to decide how we feel about this form of rhetoric."

Justin Wolfers: The Real (Economic) State Of The Union What happens when political speeches collide with economic data? This clip pulls together the real economic State of the Union using the key statistics that hit your wallet: inflation, jobs, economic…

I tuned in to the State of the Union, and saw nothing but a firehose of lies.

If the President won't tell you the state of the economy, I will: Here's an honest assessment of the (economic) state of the union. No reality TV gimmicks, just nerdy numbers.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=DeKA...

Straight from the racism section of the speech to new ideas for minimizing democracy.