07.03.2026 04:26
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Human lives are cheap; oil futures are not.
dawg
for those who expressed a desire to touch the stove in november 2024, is it hot enough for you yet?
vision quasi absolue de la liberté d'expression
il s'agit plutôt d'un véritable culte pour le premier amendement de la constitution (liberté d'expression, de la presse, et de religion), repensé et renforcé de façon significative au milieu du 20e par une série d'arrêts de la cours suprème (sous l'égide du juge Earl Warren) -- d'où cette ...
after all those years lecturing France and other European countries about how laws criminalizing hate-speech and Holocaust-denial were violations of freedom of speech, (some) Americans are by dint of unhappy necessity coming around
our man is ON IT
you see, the friend of my enemy who is therefore my enemy and is also the enemy of my (former?) friends but is also my friend is my frenemy
Energy (con't). As former Secretary of Defense James Mattis was fond of pointing out, "the enemy gets a vote". The war in Iran ending is not a one-party decision like tariff de-escalation was. While Iran may de-escalate significantly and allow Hormuz flows to resume following any as-yet imagined American de-escalation, there is no guaranteeing that outcome. That's especially true given how much of Iran's military leadership has been killed over the past week, opening serious questions about command and control at the individual unit level. Without that command and control, it's conceivable that even with an agreement in place, Hormuz may not be safe to transit. There is also the question of whether Israel defers to American de-escalation. Their military is just as active as the US is in the region at present, including operations in Lebanon. While we don't think it's correct to assume the IDF will continue hitting Iranian targets regardless of what the American decision on de-escalation is, their cooperation is not guaranteed. We think high confidence in how the other two major parties respond to any American de-escalation is completely unreasonable, even assuming high confidence that the President will ramp down American strikes in response to high oil prices. And that itself would be a material assumption. To be clear, there are a wide range of outcomes where the current spike in prices reverses relatively quickly without taking crude over $100/barrel, but each day of continued bombing pushes them further out the distribution of likely outcomes. As for efforts to ameliorate price impacts, including reporting yesterday that the US Treasury was considering selling crude futures as a way to prevent further price gains, they would do little to address the spot market shortage that the war against Iran will create. And as long as the spot market is short barrels, no amount of futures selling can deliver more barrels into the market. Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases…
Quite. From my pre-market note this morning.
what is the case for thinking that the duration of the conflict will be up to Trump?
So in the same day we got negative data points/price action on:
-jobs
-oil
-private credit
-AI capex intentions
NEW: Mamdani's City Hall is discussing charging fees for currently free on-street parking — a policy change that would not only create a new revenue stream but also seize a once-in-a-generation opportunity to improve the streetscape. buff.ly/9C0Iq34
that that between say, British Columbia and the Canadian federal government
I've heard the same in Toronto -- but I have concluded from these brief exchanges that a lot of Canadians think it would be like swapping out NAFTA for EU membership, and don't understand that it would entail a relationship with Europe as juridically, politically and economically substantive as ...
one can only imagine how a referendum on EU membership would play out in Alberta ...
the real challenge won't be Brussels, it will be selling this to Canadians, who will have to wrestle w/profound changes to their labor, regulatory, financial, & market landscapes
from doctors to banks & transit to maple syrup cartels, a lot of vested interests won't be v happy with EU membership
Slovakia & Slovenia too
Canada's fiscal, financial and regulatory houses are in decent order, entry into the eurozone would be swift (simultaneous?)
Brexit will I think serve as a cautionary tale against special arrangements, and Brussels would I suspect insist on it
my latest book, out now with Knopf
Donald J Trump: The Unlikely Making of a Champion of Degrowth and Renewable Energy
A chart showing WTI Crude at $90.76 a barrel, up 9.75 or 12.04% as of March 6, 2026.
$WTI West Texas Intermediary is now at $90.76 a barrel.
how bad can it be, it only fuels half the world's population
I didn't mean to contest your original post - my apologies if it read that way!
my concern was that, just as Noem's obscene corruption and self-promotion sometimes risks overshadowing the human costs of ICE and concentration camps, so too with Göring's art heists obscuring his role in the Shoah
✊⚖️ "I Am Somebody!" 🌟 🕊️
Rev. Jesse Jackson, 1972 Sesame Street
I would submit that everything pales when laid alongside Göring's letter to Reinhard Heydrich instructing him to take every measure to forward "the final solution"
nuremberg.law.harvard.edu/documents/54...
A one month chart of oil prices
Oil prices are going parabolic. This is insane.
Great news - 1600 academic workers won their first collective bargaining contract at the University of Kansas @afthighered.bsky.social @aaup.org www.aft.org/press-releas...
say what you will about Karoline Leavitt, she just found him an off ramp
“When I use a word... it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.”
— Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking Glass
in the current moment i find myself cycling between moments of intense Marxism and Burkeanism, and then between anarchism and Isaiah-Berlinism -- sometimes all in the same 60-second sequence
