Another wildcard, I know for a fact, there are politicos in the UK, with no party allegiance currently, working on a UK styled MAGA Project 2025 style document, my understanding of it is Ireland dosent feature much in it, as I keep saying, times are a changing.
So a I referred to or would coin as post-national, on the first day you started talking, local and international, but not national.
As mentioned, an ECHR vote in UK most likely, at earliest, will be 2029. My prediction is, Ireland (not NI), will see civil unrest before then, making the paramilitary groups look like amateurs, and certainly tiny in comparison to whats coming - civil disobedience over immigration (put nicely).
Trump and MAGA are setting a precedent and a roadmap on how to 'deal' with treaty and agreements against national interest, something I'd strongly argue we have yet to see how that ripples across populist and nationalist worldwide going forward.
I think you arent taking a lot of things into account, not certainties, but strong possibilities going forward. Firstly as said, I'm working on the presumption the first opportunity Brits have a chance to vote on leaving the ECHR will be 2029 (UK GE)...
Actually, I said that is preferred way, I've repeatedly said be careful what you wish for, and politics not least in the US is different. I'm old enough to have personally experienced IRA threats on mainland Britain. We now have a new generation coming through, and a different demographic...
Aw, is that you's blame the resurgence of loyalist paramilitary activity on.... So what about in the years before Brexit. It never went away, obviously not to the scale of the so called 'Troubles', and with ups and downs. Both Ireland and NI people made clear these group do not represent themselves.
I get the distinct impression from you, when I say "when/if the UK votes to leave the ECHR" you think I believe the next day the UK leaves the ECHR. Last night, I even twice explicitly stated pretty well the (but not as nicely as you) exactly what you stated voluntarily in the screenshot above.
Actually that is what I was in part referring to in part the Vienna convention. I love how keep saying you have been clear on this, yet just one example below were you explain how it would happen.
A very similar type argument was made by the EU and remainers during the Brexit campaign, when it was argued there could be a negotiated outcome, which they denied until the end.
Then low and behold, and without doubt with time and some 'pain' we managed to do it.
I'd also point out, whilst NI is a very important context when discussing the possible UK withdrawal from the ECHR, it is far from the only issue we will have deal with when it happens. The ECHR is inter-tangled in much UK legislation. Which is fine.
Or alternatively, just like Brexit (again) there is a possibility NI could have a negotiated unique position within the UK, that in this case allows the provisions of the ECHR within.
As I've said several times prior, whilst the GFA was signed (relatively) not so long ago, we live in a wildly different time, (geo)politically.
Also, whilst separate to this discussion, at best the UK voting to leave the ECHR wont be on the cards till 2029. Meanwhile the wildcard, from an Irish perspective will be immigration, which may raise issues over ECHR and EU membership, in itself.
Although, just like Brexit (again) there is a possibility NI could have a negotiated unique position within the UK, that allows the provisions of the ECHR within.
I'd totally agree with that statement.
Unless you want to geeky about it or think I am a Nazi, the definition of nationalism is pretty well defined in the context we are speaking about. Heres a Wikipedia link to it - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationa...
Obviously, neither of us can predict the future, but I'd strongly argue the writing is on the wall when it comes to the UK & the ECHR. No-where did I argue it wouldn't require diplomacy, possibly/probably some pain, or most likely be protracted, but in my view it is pretty inevitable now for the UK.
Well on the latter point, that was often raised with the Brexit fear mongering, and never happened.
No its not, as mentioned, I don't either - re-TikTok. A link is all that was required to back up your assertion.
You are being disingenuous, a vote to leave the ECHR does not mean we walkaway from the GFA or safeguards, it means, in this case, any provisions that include the ECHR would have to be rewritten, to protect them. There are well laid out procedures for this at various levels.
Which is why, a negotiated outcome, keeping those safeguards would have to be made. Sure, I mentioned, be careful what you wish for, its a different world, but that was on your insistence there are no alternatives, which clearly is incorrect.
Your insistence (at least, at first) the UK cant leave the ECHR is disingenuous. You insist EU members are sovereign, and seem keen to espouse that whenever you can, but at the same time seem to be selective on international law when it comes to a future UK choosing to leave the ECHR.
If you want call it destabilisation, thats certainly one characterisation, but there was no return to terrorism because of it, political, and some economic pain, sure, but it (unfortunately) was part of the democratic choice of the UK to leave the EU.
But the UK still left the EU, a negotiated outcome was found to accommodate the unique circumstances of NI & Ireland. I've said several times, vote by the UK to leave the ECHR (whether via referendum or election manifesto) is just the start, what then follows would be much like Brexit negotiations.
Last comment, promise, just to be clear, my definition of nationalism and being a nationalist, dosen't involve victimhood unlike some places...
Look, as you didnt even deny you were a school leaver, have told me prior to "Google it" and even pretended not to have TikTok to view an embarrassing video (I dont either, but managed to find it and share it! The web is a wonderful thing!). So, I'm going call it a night.
I hope you are right and Ireland refuses to negotiate, Ireland will be in for a rude awakening, not least from your EU "brothers and sisters".
Ireland can agree or disagree, but the UK would not be in breach if we voted to leave. When we do, we would then negotiate our withdrawal, pretty standard international stuff.
Well actually, in fairness yesterday (last night) I do think I argued the EU wasent sovereign, from an individual members view. But I certainly wouldn't argue against what you believe personally, more power to you, just the differences in what we believe.
