Westminster Voting Intention:
RFM: 29% (-1)
LAB: 21% (+3)
CON: 16% (-2)
GRN: 14% (+2)
LDM: 10% (-2)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @opiniumresearch.bsky.social, 4-6 Mar.
Changes w/ 25-27 Feb.
My Seat Model:
SNP: 61 (-3)
LAB: 19 (-3)
RFM: 17 (+17)
CON: 13 (-18)
GRN: 10 (+2)
LDM: 9 (+5)
Changes w/ 2021.
Holyrood Voting Intention:
Constituency:
SNP: 37% (+3)
LAB: 18% (+2)
RFM: 17% (-2)
CON: 12% (-1)
LDM: 9% (=)
GRN: 6% (-2)
Regional:
SNP: 33% (+5)
LAB: 17% (-1)
RFM: 17% (-1)
CON: 13% (=)
LDM: 9% (-2)
GRN: 9% (=)
ALBA: 1% (-2)
Via @survation.bsky.social, 20-25 Feb.
Changes w/ 8-12 Jan.
New Substack. What’s the future for Labour? Or is there one? Has the future halted? open.substack.com/pub/mbatangs...
Reform manifesto: Senedd election is 'referendum' on PM's leadership
Chart showing lifetime average GDP growth for Brits by year of birth. 20-year-old Brits have experienced an average of 1.4% growth, compared with 2.4% for 75-year-olds
Part of the issue is a lack of growth. A recent study showed that cohorts who experience more GDP growth in their lifetimes are more likely to trust the government and have positive perceptions of their living standards. academic.oup.com/qje/advance-... In Britain, such voters are dying out
Chart showing real median salaries by graduate status. Postgrads have declined 17%, grads 12% and non-grads by 3%
Since 2007, real median postgrad salaries have declined by 17% and 12% for undergrads (*before* accounting for student loans!). The narrative of the 2010s was dominated by the status-loss of industrial workers, the 2020s might be the decade of disappointed grads
Polling from More in Common shows that Greens and Reform win a higher share of voters who struggle to make ends meet, while Labour and the Conservatives win those who are most financially comfortable
Reform UK and the Greens are hoovering up financially insecure voters. My piece this week looks at the return of Britain's class politics (with a twist) www.economist.com/britain/2026...
The Constitution Unit. How will the 2026 Senedd election change Welsh politics? 5 March 2026, 1:00pm–2:00pm. Jess Blair (Director of Electoral Reform Society Cymru). Prof Laura McAllister (Professor of Public Policy and Governance of Wales at Cardiff University). Sir Paul Silk (former Clark to the National Assembly of Wales). Chair: Prof Alan Renwick (Deputy Director of the Constitution Unit).
How will the 2026 Senedd election change Welsh politics?
At 1pm join @jessblair.bsky.social, @lauramcallister30.bsky.social and @paulsilk.bsky.social to discuss the Senedd's possible makeup, new voting system and expansion.
Sign up for this free, online event 👉 www.ucl.ac.uk/social-histo....
My thoughts on the poll showing the Greens have overtaken Labour following the Gorton and Denton by-election, whether this could be a "bandwagon effect", and what that means, for The Conversation: theconversation.com/how-to-under...
The Scottish public remain divided on Scottish independence with 51% likely to vote yes in an immediate referendum, and 49% saying they would vote no.
Unlike random error, which has a functional relationship with the % vote share, the history of bias in polling suggests a loose relationship at best. You'd think the absolute bias would be smaller the smaller the vote share, but it ain't necessarily so.
Energy independence is consistently one of the most powerful pro-Net Zero arguments among voters.
They back renewables over fossil fuel as the solution and it's not particularly close.
Bit baffled that Govt is not hammering this more loudly in light of Iran. Pushing at an open door.
My Seat Model:
SNP: 60 (-4)
LAB: 18 (-4)
GRN: 17 (+9)
RFM: 14 (+14)
CON: 11 (-20)
LDM: 9 (+5)
Changes w/ 2021.
I love how Ipsos show the margin of error on their charts. Should be industry standard!
Women were more likely to be undecided: 36% of women didn't know how they'd vote vs 18% of men.
That matters because Reform tends to perform better among men, while the Greens perform better among women. If many of those deciding late were women, that could help explain the late swing to the Greens
New piece from w/ @hannahbunting.bsky.social & @jess-smith.bsky.social on the Gorton & Denton byelection, and what it might tell us about British politics.
We cover turnout, late-deciding voters, gender gaps & the continuing fragmentation of the party system 🧵
theconversation.com/late-decider...
New post by me on how and why support for Labour has dropped since the general election, and how the Green by-election win yesterday increases the chances of a Reform majority at the next GE because tactical coordination failure on the left is now more likely.
electionsetc.com/2026/02/27/t...
Holyrood Voting Intention:
Const:
SNP: 34% (+2)
RFM: 18% (+1)
LAB: 14% (-6)
GRN: 11% (+2)
CON: 10% (=)
LDM: 10% (=)
Reg:
SNP: 28% (-1)
RFM: 19% (+1)
GRN: 16% (+6)
LAB: 14% (-7)
CON: 10% (=)
LDM: 10% (=)
ALBA: 1% (-2)
Via YouGov / Scottish Elections Study, 11-18 Feb.
Changes w/ 13-19 Jun.
New post by me on how and why support for Labour has dropped since the general election, and how the Green by-election win yesterday increases the chances of a Reform majority at the next GE because tactical coordination failure on the left is now more likely.
electionsetc.com/2026/02/27/t...
The @niassembly.bsky.social has produced a briefing paper on public views towards reform of Stormont. It looks at a range of evidence, including my 2023 report 'Perspectives on the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement' co-authored with @alanrenwick.bsky.social at the @conunitucl.bsky.social
Links below
Gorton and Denton could mark the beginning of the end for the Labour Party www.independent.co.uk/voices/gorto...
Lab vote share decline is all the more dramatic for having fallen by 16 points between 2019 and 2024. Governments defending by-elections are normally starting from the high end of their range of vote share but not in this seat.
Firm but fair criticism from @alanrenwick.bsky.social of the "glaring omission" in the Representation of the People Bill.
The independence of the Electoral Commission has been seriously undermined. The government must act to restore it.
Read in full @conunitucl.bsky.social 👇
buff.ly/qhmruE3
Gorton and Denton by-election
Hannah Spencer, Green 41% +27
Matt Goodwin, Reform 29% +15
Angeliki Stogia, Labour 25% -25
Charlotte Cadden, Con 2% -6
Jackie Pearcey, Lib Dem 2% -2
Swing Lab->Green 26.4%
Turnout 48% -0.2
There even an academic paper on By-election exit polls from that time by Clive Payne.
Source: Academia.edu share.google/2czcPYgzvOvC...
While rolling back climate regulations, the Trump administration says this is what the American people want. Yet, YPCCC’s own research shows that a majority of Americans think global warming is happening and that it is making extreme weather worse. climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications...
My Trade Secrets today. The Trump tariff refunds saga is blackly comic. About 20% of tariffs levied on Chinese exporters are paid directly by those exporters. So they get a refund windfall, having largely passed the tariff costs on to US co.s & consumers. I know, right?
as.ft.com/r/30dbb3e0-8...
“Italy … wants to lower wholesale prices by reimbursing power generators for the carbon permits they have to buy, and recover the cost directly from customer bills." "gas-fired plants might well gain market share" ... "It is greensliding”
www.ft.com/content/d4a6...
