Michael C. Davies

Also, if I can find a good enough job post-PhD, I was thinking about doing a 25 yr retrospective book.

*awkward cough.

We did write it. No one cared.

For the record, one of the few ways to get Iran to sign a surrender agreement would be for the US to accept territorial continuity under all circumstances.

Further proof Trump et al are the worst at this

This means it’s smaller companies that design and innovate systems, get patents, etc., but larger government concerns build them. Think the NASA arsenal system during Apollo and before.

But at the same time, a lot could be fixed by making fundamental changes. I’d like to see options about nationalising Lockheed Martin and the Defence side of Boeing. The idea being they, and other primes, can be run as government builders with some independence; no stock issuances, saving money.

Also, the stated aim in the Gulf War was never to liberate Kuwait, it was to return peace and security to the region. In all documents, liberation of Kuwait is treated as a military goal only.

In that agreement, signed by Saddam in person, on intl. TV, would have been a formal acceptance of Kuwait’s sovereignty, promise of reparations, all RGs go into POW camps, agree to end all WMD, war crimes trials, etc.

Formal televised embarrassment is how Saddam falls.

I genuinely never understand why people think the only options after the ‘91 was the dumb way it did end or marching on Baghdad.

The best way to have ended it was to cut off the Iraqi escape, turn those left into POWs as bargaining chip, and then hold formal surrender negotiations and ceremony

It’s fine having the top level be political. That’s how it should work. But much needs to be professionalised. J6 proved that intrinsically.

And in doing so, the US needs things like graduate programs so there is a constantly flow of new young people in. Relying on former mil with clearances hurts.

I think we need to return to more professionals than career. If politicians want more dynamic and effective bureaucracies, they have to build them. Hacks constantly moving through makes everything harder.

But awe just a lot more places need to be open. We need State to be 4x its current.

The problem is when everyone’s personal wealth is based on the stock price of the contractors you’re deciding who gets to Build what

It’s not bad that you need spaces for people to hang out in between government positions. I personally believe that academia is better for them as it forces them to stay in the real world. Or Services Academies. Private sector after a high position can be seen as a corruption of Nat Sec.

As always the real solution is a new Nat Sec Act.

There should be no need for Think Tanks. Depts, agencies, and HQs should have built into systems.

All these people should be in govt anyway in some capacity, and, above all else, they need to stay in their specialist areas, not branch out.

Welcome to the Revolution.

Yup. That’s precisely what CNAS was supposed to be. CSIS was nominally leaning left, but still heavily establishment, but went insane for money.

Also, when has a warship underway ever been ‘unarmed’?

When I say 2m, I mean 2m on the ground at any one time. With rotations over time, losses, and whatnot, you'd need to train, over a 5+ yr heavy occupation, at least 3 times. Meaning 5-6m in uniform, most of whom acting as local security and occupation admin, with border force.

Cost: $15T

Likewise, because of this large number, you'd have to have everyone doing 3+ yr tours. The existing AVF combat arms would have to be withdrawn fast to repair for other contingencies. Meaning that full 2m would be recruits. To train this number would require at least 2+ years to get ready.

It would be nearly 2m. You have to factor in large-scale POW camps for Iranian military and IRGC. And considering how large Iran is geographically and population wise, you need heavy occupation in the rural areas, which means spread out VSO-type bases. Meaning massive logistical lines.

What did Saddam surrender to? There was a military-to-military handshake ceasefire at Safwan, which then turned into a formal Iraqi acceptance of UNSCR 687, and the war was considered over.

The Iraqis didn't surrender to anyone. Everyone just went home.

Good timing. If Books Could Kill did an episode on it today.

www.iheart.com/podcast/867-...

But this is also a larger point. There is little to argue over who 'won/lost' WW1 because there was a formal treaty that everyone signed. Everyone agreed, however willingly, what the outcome was.

Its the same reason those same outcomes were negated by the Nazis in the same spaces.

Yes, because the treaty remained in effect for over 10 years, its acceptable to call WW1 a win for the Associated Powers. But it was also so unsustainable, it collapsed under its own weight of ineffectiveness and contradictions. That doesn't negate the win, but does diminish it.

Once I submit in the next little while and pass my viva, immediately after my theory will get published. You'll understand then that, yes, those are defeats.

More than that, those outcomes were path dependent because they're the best the US can do. Strategic failure is the core of US nat sec system

Kosovo can claim as true win, but the linkages between how that outcome occurred and US mil actions is weak to nonexistent; not enough people died in Grenada to be a war; many interventions where imposed govt is unsustainable, leading to overthrow in short time—all should be coded as failures.

We put Noriega away, and drug activity in Panama increased—drugs win; Gulf war was epic mil win, followed by a ceasefire not implemented properly, not properly enforced by UN Res.—stalemate; we didn’t install the Iraqi Gov, Iran and Kurds did, guarded by their militias.

Iraq was unequivocally a defeat. We also didn’t win the Gulf War, the War on Drugs, Panama, and innumerable others.
Most can only be considered political stalemates. An epic military win does not equal strategic victory.

As in allow Americans to do it themselves? Never say never.

But also, can just resell it back to the MAGA cultists as souvenirs.

Precisely. The visuals alone would be so pleasing and cathartic.