Conor Sen

The degens trading $USO bid it up until the 8pm close:

I write for my ~50 favorite internet friends, and if they like it, it’s probably something that other people interested in the subject or my writing will appreciate.

Vols mega-bid into the close but stocks barely budging.

I still don't love the valuations in residential construction stocks, but I no longer hate them.

I remember hearing from a few people in late April, "I don't know how or why but stocks are going to rally" and I think that mentality took over.

Bonds should be bid, imo.

So in the same day we got negative data points/price action on:
-jobs
-oil
-private credit
-AI capex intentions

This is a big deal

*ORACLE AND OPENAI END PLANS TO EXPAND TEXAS DATA CENTER SITE
*ORACLE-OPENAI TALKS TO LEASE STARGATE EXPANSION SITE BROKE DOWN
*META IN DISCUSSION WITH DEVELOPER CRUSOE TO LEASE EXPANDED SITE

Let’s see where we are in a week once people have absorbed the move in gasoline prices.

what's going on guys

*BLACKROCK’S $26 BILLION PRIVATE CREDIT FUND LIMITS WITHDRAWALS

Time for the reflexive dip-buying attempt.

Maybe @peark.es already pointed it out, but while the jobs report was obviously not good, initial jobless claims don't show any kind of deterioration that would suggest -90k/month is the state of the labor market.

Still feels like stocks are more afraid of missing the TACO than of losing money.

With the GFC, Covid, SVB, and Liberation Day, throwing money at the problem or putting out a statement was enough to put out the fires. But energy is molecules and the Fed can’t print molecules.

Needs to be a Kalshi market on this.

Strait of Hormuz is gonna open back up ASAP.

*TRUMP WANTS IRAN'S 'UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER', RULES OUT DEAL

What a mess.

We just haven't gotten the correlations go to 1 mechanical break yet.

It would be a pretty great time for an EV company with good values to launch a mid-sized SUV, wonder if any company has thought about that for say next week.

If the oil prices on the screens are right, stocks aren't cheap enough, but if somehow oil markets did get fixed in 2-3 weeks it doesn't seem like there would be that much upside in stocks either. Just feels like no man's land.

Energy markets to equity traders:

Retail gasoline prices up another 7c/gallon yesterday:

Glad I’m not an oil trader.

You can't fill up your gas tank with a short futures position.

You think about what a science fiction report on AI did to software stocks, and here we have an actual energy crisis and people are largely shrugging at it.

Bloklahoma is still fun to type out/say.

Gasoline futures are up 60c/gallon on the week and a name like $SBUX is flat.

I'm genuinely stunned at how little consumer discretionary/energy-intensive stocks are down on the week.

NOEM OUT

It doesn't seem like he has the ability to do a unilateral TACO here.