Phillips P. OBrien | Substack
Professor of Strategic Studies, @univofstandrew. Writing about grand strategy, war, history, Romanesque and Baroque buildings I love, Sicily, and pretty much anything else that takes my fancy.
@rikiwilchins.bsky.social Last couple days:
1) Trinsults Zelensky & WH says it was a mistake to help Ukraine.
2) US begs Ukraine for help w/ Iranian drones.
3) Ukraine starts helping US.
4) WashPo Reports come Putin is giving Iran targeting info
5) The WH says that is fine.
06.03.2026 23:44
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South Korea approves creating a trans rights foundation
South Korea has approved the creation of a foundation fighting to protect transgender people from discrimination.
@rikiwilchins.bsky.social 2026 Mar 6 PinkNews
A court has ruled the repeated delays on approval to launch for a new non-profit that will protect trans South Koreans from transphobia--caused by a conservative member on an oversight board--was illegal and the organization can go ahead as planned.
06.03.2026 14:05
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This trans teacher has no choice but to leave Florida: 'I can't defend myself'
Saoirse Stone says state policies have turned her daily life in an Orlando high school classroom into a series of quiet humiliations.
@rikiwilchins.bsky.social 2026 Mar 6
The insanity of what it's like being a trans teacher under FL Don't Say Gay/Trans law where you can't use your correct name or pronouns with students or otherwise indicate that you're female at school.
06.03.2026 14:00
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Texas Republican Ends Re-Election Bid After Affair
The announcement came as House GOP leaders asked the lawmaker to quit his campaign after he admitted to an affair.
@rikiwilchins.bsky.social I confess I am mystified by this. We have Pres who has admittedly committed multiple sexual assaults and was even convicted of it AND is in the Epstein files. but a Member who slept with an adult staffer (admittedly one who later killed herself) has to resign?
06.03.2026 13:56
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All the polls on the U.S. war in Iran so far
According to a simple average of new high-quality surveys, 38% of Americans approve and 49% disapprove of U.S. military action in Iran. When ignoring "don't know" respondents, 56% disapprove
Interesting: "No president in modern polling history has launched a major military operation with the public against him. After September 11, Gallup found 90% of Americans approved of military action. The 1991 Gulf War hit 79-80% approval. And 76% supported the 2003 invasion of
Iraq."
06.03.2026 13:43
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Both Bush I and Trump I called on Kurds to rise up against Iran. Then left them to their bloody end when Iran's huge army counter-attacked. I doubt Kurds will got for anything big again. However it's a good guess this shows there will be no boots on the ground in this war from US/Israel.
06.03.2026 12:02
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Our Story Thus Far: Obama negotiates a treaty with Iran to not enrich nuclear material. They stop doing so. Trump cancels it, bec. it's Obama's. Iran starts enriching nuclear material again. Trump declares, "Iran is enriching nuclear material again--we must go to war to stop it" Did I miss anything?
06.03.2026 11:59
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A Political Earthquake Rattles the North Carolina Legislature
@rikiwilchins.bsky.social Another political earthquake in NC legislature as 3 Dems who vote with GOP all lost their primaries by as much as 48% and 5 Rep swept from their seats.
05.03.2026 23:35
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Actually I think it's a snapshot of who they think is the Rep base is that is pro-war -- MAGA hard cases. The same folks who the WWF event planned for the White House lawn appeals to. Sadly, it's also why I can't discuss politics with my family :-{
05.03.2026 23:26
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It would have totally made sense to me if this sentence ended with "interspersed with clips from the Keystone Cops films."
05.03.2026 16:16
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@rikiwilchins.bsky.social
Do they even _know_ how nuts this is?
"The White House is trying to shift the negative vibes with montage videos of successful U.S. strikes on Iranian targets set to a thumping musical soundtrack, >>> interspersed with footage from the video game 'Call of Duty.'"<<<
05.03.2026 13:54
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Indiana school pays ousted teacher $650K in transgender policy dispute
A Brownsburg teacher claimed he was forced out after refusing to comply with a policy requiring staff to use a transgender student's preferred name.
@rikiwilchins.bsky.social 2026 Mar 5
IN school district settles for $650k after 8 yrs w/ teacher who refused to use trans students names/pronouns, claiming it violated his religious beliefs. School had repeatedly won in fed court until a district court flipped after recent Supreme Ct decisions.
05.03.2026 10:31
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Not Satire: Iran War is βDivine Planβ and βArmageddonβ, say some US commanders. Really.
When I first heard this yesterday, it sounded like an over the top, βtoo crazy to be trueβ social-media rumor that collapses the moment you tug on it.
Beyond description.
A US commander quoting Revelation in a combat-readiness brief,, telling troops the Iran war was βpart of Godβs divine planβ to usher in Armageddon and the return of Jesus β and βPresident Trump has been anointed by Jesusβ to light the signal fire. It read like satire: it wasn't.
04.03.2026 21:26
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USA Rugby creates βopenβ division after Trump administration pressure to exclude transgender women
A new eligibility update bans trans women from womenβs teams.
@rikiwilchins.bsky.social 2026 Mar 4
USA Rugby bowing to admin. pressure, announces it will ban transgender women from competing in its womenβs division, upending trans-friendly eligibility policies in place since 2022.
04.03.2026 14:17
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American support for abolishing ICE hits record 50% in new poll
It's the 1st time in YouGov's polling history that support for abolishing ICE has reached 50%.
@rikiwilchins.bsky.social
in YouGov poll 50% of Americans now back abolishing ICE, compared with just 39% who want to keep. That top number includes 52% of independents.
04.03.2026 09:54
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It is the motto of this administration
03.03.2026 23:44
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@rikiwilchins.bsky.social T, apparently miffed by reports that DOJ had backed off on suing big law firms, has reinstituted the lawsuits even tho they're losing in court every time.
03.03.2026 20:59
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"Trump Says Strikes Have Left Leadership Vacuum in Iran"
"Iran Says 2024 Election Left Leadership Vacuum in U.S."
03.03.2026 18:16
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@rikiwilchins.bsky.social
Well, _that_ didn't last long. Rubio+Johnson explained Iran war as being bec. Israel was abt to strike so Iran would strike us. Now T claims it was self-defense: Iran was trying to kill HIM.
So much for nuclear weapons, freeing Iranian ppl, and 2020 election interference
03.03.2026 17:57
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That's ridiculous! For me it was the mumps π
03.03.2026 16:43
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Parents Tried to Shield Their Children From Vaccines. Instead They Got Measles.
@rikiwilchins.bsky.social
More vaccine insanity. Spartanburg County, SC is ground zero for the largest US measles outbreak since 2000. One school has a vaccination rate of just 21%.
03.03.2026 14:16
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@rikiwilchins.bsky.social
So in T's continuing floundering for a war rationale he's now saying this was a pre-emptive defensive strike bec. of an imminent attack by Iran.
This is **exactly** the rationale W used to justify going after Hussein and WMDs by invading Iraq in 2003.
03.03.2026 13:50
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@rikiwilchins.bsky.social [Polling cont]
This polling shows that attempts by Dems like Newsom to pander to right on trans issues is less important than framing the in ways that speak to views people support. Also to previous polling that Dems aren't seen as too liberal but too weak.
[4/4]
03.03.2026 13:46
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@rikiwilchins.bsky.social [Polling cont]
People also hold completely contradictory beliefs.
13% said parents should be able to give GAC to kids BUT minors should not be able to get GAC.
10% wanted birth-sex bathroom laws BUT supported trans ppl using bathrooms matching gender identity.
[3/4]
03.03.2026 13:39
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@rikiwilchins.bsky.social [Polling cont]
Should laws require bathrooms matching birth sex?
Net 30% support
Should trans ppl be able to use bathrooms matching their gender identity?
Net 11% support.
A swing of 19%.
[2/4]
03.03.2026 13:34
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Many Americans hold contradictory opinions on the same policies
Our new poll finds question wording can swing opinion by 20+ points on immigration, the budget, and transgender rights. That's a problem for people who use polls to tell politicians what voters want.
@rikiwilchins.bsky.social 2026 Mar 3 StrengthInNumbers
New polling on strong βframing effectβ of trans issues.
Should minors be able to get GAC?
Opposed 57-28% net -29%
Should minors be be able to get doctor-recommended GAC after diagnosis.
Supported 44-28%, net +16%
That's a 45% swing.
03.03.2026 13:33
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Yeah. It means CA can't pass a law that keeps school districts from forcing the outing of trans kids. How many will do so is another question. So is if this will now be extended through the same logic to gay kids.
03.03.2026 13:22
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A Rare White Flag From DOJ, as Bondi Drops Gov't Appeal in the βPunish Big Lawβ Cases
The Trump administration has abandoned its appellate defense of the executive orders that targeted major law firmsβan unusually explicit retreat in one of the administrationβs most overt βretribution-...
@rikiwilchins.bsky.social In a rare retreat, Trump/DOJ give up their war on major law firms threatened with loss of govt contracts, security clearances and access to fed bldgs based on their work on election challenges. 9 struck deals, but others fought back, winning early and often in courts.
03.03.2026 11:18
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@rikiwilchins.bsky.social [CA schools con't]
To clarify, the Supreme Court decision does NOT mandate parental notification, but it does allow conservative CA school districts to now pass their own "Parental Notification" policies and voids the law that prevented them.
03.03.2026 11:09
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