@fluidsguru
Following the new energy revolution. Navigating the Climate Change apocalypse. Helping to forecast future weather events. Probably an anarchist. Still dealing with long COVID. Also at mastodon : @fluids_guru@kolektiva.social
Syria’s Kurds are warning their Iranian counterparts not to align with the US, saying Washington will eventually betray them and citing their own experience in the last few months as proof.
Threading some stuff about oil & oil markets, just basic but hope it helps:
1/ oil markets are what you call “finely balanced”. Supply is usually very very close to demand/consumption. Demand is hard to shift *quickly* in response to supply hiccups.
So even small supply changes = big price effects
NSW bimodal regional train being tested. By Jenper via Wikipedia CC BY-SA 4.0 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_South_Wales_R_set#/media/File:R2-Clarendon-18May25-Edited.jpg
V/Line VLocity diesel trains at Southern Cross Station
With oil prices skyrocketing, NSW must be glad its new bimodal (diesel and electric) long distance trains are getting closer to entering service. Meanwhile V/Line is still running a last century design that is 100% reliant on global oil supplies.🛢️📈
BREAKING A strike targeting Bahrain's sprawling Al Ma'ameer oil facility has caused a fire at the complex along with material damage, state media reports.
Bahrain's state-owned energy company Bapco declares force majeure after waves of Iranian strikes targeted the country's energy installations
If Chinese EVs were allowed to be sold on U.S. markets, Americans would save a ton of money - and oil companies and U.S. car companies would get wrecked.
electrek.co/2026/03/05/b...
An edited version of the XKCD comic #2347 titled "Dependencies" It shows a large stack of irregularly sized blocked stacked on one another. They are labelled "The Global Economy" In the lower right there is a single small block that is clearly supporting the entire tower above it. It is labelled "A Very Narrow Strip Of Water Between Iran And Gulf States"
With apologies to XKCD (xkcd.com/2347/)
The Chinese Century of Winning By Doing (hardly) Nothing
Local independent service station is already out of fuel, all kinds. Guess independents are the first to be denied deliveries. Proprietor tells me she's looking at potentially 30-50 days before next fuel.
This is why states rolling back climate laws to save a few pennies in short term are so misguided. We all end up paying for unmitigated climate change one way or another. A case in point: monopoly utilities recovering storm costs from captive ratepayers:
insideclimatenews.org/news/2602202...
New regulations are fun.
This reminds me of that line I saw someone say once (which rang true) that something that makes Trump uniquely able to connect with low-information voters is that he is a low-information voter.
Oil up 20% today to over $110 a barrel. Asia is going to be squeezed for oil. An analysis from 2025 re: oil traffic through the Straight of Hormuz
www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...
11/ BREAKING: SUNDAY 6pm ET. Markets open. Brent and WTI crude jumps more than 20% to above $110 a barrel!
Markets last week - Short War.
Markets this week - Oh no no no no.
Where could it go? How does it end? Thread @thepolycrisis.bsky.social buttondown.com/polycrisisdi...
bsky.app/profile/70sb...
This is the largest oil supply shock in history in mb/d
The enemy gets a vote. Iran is now delivering pain to Trump via multiple paths
(1) Gulf Kings
(2) Financial meltdown
(3) AI tech oligarchs
(4) Fuel, fertilizer, food disruptions
Read our Polycrisis Dispatch:
buttondown.com/polycrisisdi...
Australia’s school system is becoming more socially segregated. Private school enrolments have grown rapidly over the past two decades, while most public schools remain underfunded — weakening one of the country’s strongest institutions for social cohesion. satpa.pe/yX06DOs
Beijing calls for Iran's sovereignty to be respected and demands 'immediate stop to military operations' in Middle East.
Multiple news outlets are reporting a US attack on an Iranian #desalination plant.
If verified, this violates international law protecting #water systems during wars, and it sets a dangerous precedent, given intense dependence of Gulf countries on desalination.
timesofoman.com/article/1691...
You’ll hear a lot more of this in the decades ahead #ClimateAdaptation
Well they build the cars - so the circle of blame inside McLaren is very small
The Gulf states & Israel depend on water desalination to live. If Israel & US break the taboo of bombing vulnerable desal infrastructure, they risk catastrophic harm.
Percent of drinking water from desal:
Israel: 80%
Kuwait: 90%
Saudi Arabia: 70%
Oman: 86%
UAW: 42%
www.ndtv.com/world-news/i...
It would be interesting to compare the numbers behind the Australian Open and the Grand Prix. The Open has the advantage of running over two weeks, as opposed to one weekend.
I won’t be attending again until the crowds drop off - as IMO it’s not worth the cost.
Yes the Liberty licensing fees are exhorbitant.
But to suggest F1 fudges the crowd numbers and not many people turn up is a flat out lie.
Now with Drive to Survive + the Piastri effect, crowds are enormous. Possibly bigger than ever. I went last year on Friday and couldn’t see a thing. All my favourite vantage points were chockers - new grandstands have risen again from the ashes of the dead 2010s.
As someone who has attended most GPs since 1996 - this analysis is flawed. During the late 2010s the event was pretty much a flop. Crowds were way down. It was very easy to find fantastic vantage points.
So according to the WSJ a US Senator conspired with another country to manipulate the US into starting a war, am I getting this right
Trump has killed Iran's supreme leader and is demanding 'unconditional surrender.' But history tells us that US-led regime change efforts abroad almost never bring positive results.
Read here: zeteo.com/p/seven-us-r...
This is a far bigger fuel, fertilizer, food crisis for Asia and Europe than it is for the US.
US dependence on Persian Gulf oil has almost never been lower
A thread by @sstapczynski.bsky.social on how Asia is alreaddy within days facing a destabilizing.
x.com/SStapczynski...
