@maxbergmann.bsky.social and I spoke with Eric Ciaramella of @carnegieendowment.org for his thoughts on how Europe can best arm Ukraine as it continues to hold-off Russian forces. Eric argues for a pragmatic approach that focuses European efforts on where they can be most impactful.
"By announcing the first quantitative increase in France’s nuclear warhead count since 1992 and unveiling the doctrine of 'forward deterrence,' Paris is signaling a watershed moment in continental security," writes @erep.csis.org expert Astrid Chevreuil.
Read more: https://bit.ly/4laEAOI
How long will this war last? A clue in our story: "U.S. Central Command ... is asking the Pentagon to send more military intelligence officers to its headquarters in Tampa, Fla., to support operations against Iran for at least 100 days but likely through September." www.politico.com/news/2026/03...
TFW you want to save your family’s lives but also buy a Rolex
This comment says it all. Sanchez is the canary… European politics turning hard in an anti-Trump/American direction. Being a jerk to everyone may work for a bit but it makes everyone hate you
Interesting to me is the idea of supporting drone interceptor production.
As @maxbergmann.bsky.social pointed out, the EU's Ammunition production program (ASAP) was, after a slow start, highly successful. That idea came from Kallas when she was still Estonian PM.
A programm similar to ASAP for drone inceptors on a larger scale and in cooperation with Ukraine could be a really important instrument - for European defence, the European defence industry and for strategy autonomy.
EU foreign policy is a mess because the Lisbon Treaty is a mess. Hence EU “high rep” title not EU “foreign minister.” Member states want the EU to be strong and speak with one voice but hesitate to make the trade: control (sovereignty) for strength. And the end result is they get neither.
Great and informative thread. Reports of the EU's demise are greatly exaggerated. It's a tanker, not a speedboat, but once it turns, it benefits from a lot of mass.
Spanish foreign minister Albares refutes Leavitt claims that Madrid now backs US / Israeli attacks on Iran
"She may be the White House press secretary, but I’m the foreign minister of Spain and I’m telling her that our position hasn’t changed at all.”
“Some experts say that the economy’s actual growth may be half of what official statistics indicate. Rhodium Group, a New York-based research firm specializing in China, estimated that the Chinese economy grew less than 3 percent last year.”
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/b...
After months of wrangling and an epic list of delays, the Commission has finally released its Industrial Accelerator Act.
This could turn into one of the EU’s most consequential industrial policy files in years - and the proposal is honestly not a bad place to start.
Some quick thoughts:
Air defence interceptors are fast becoming the scarcest defence asset on the planet.
Europe has 4 years to ramp up production of SAMP/T or Patriots (in Europe). We didn’t am that’s a huge problem - fo Ukraine and ourselves.
Now we need an urgent crash programme to do so. And we can. ↘️
This crisis calls out for EU action. What is needed is massive joint funding to put in huge orders to catalyze a massive expansion of production. Additionally, the EU could help push aside permitting/regulatory hurdles. This could be the ASAP (155 ammo) initiative on steroids. 6/
What should Europe and Ukraine do? They need a crash course to rapidly expand their own supply, particularly SAMP-T, Europe's Patriot alternative, as well as pursue a break glass effort to innovate and bring the cost curve down. Also seek to expand production of Patriot interceptors in Europe. 5/
European states should therefore be watching NATO's PURL initiative like a hawk. This initiative involves Europeans buying US weapons(aid) that are vital for Ukraine). They need to monitor carefully to see if deliveries are being made or are constantly being delayed/pushed back. 4/
Who gets priority? My guess... after reading this great @adamentous.bsky.social piece... is it won't be Ukraine. Gulf states have a ton of pull. And the Trump admin has already tried to deprioritize Ukraine. /3
www.csis.org/podcasts/rus...
this means there will be huge demand for very little supply. That means deciding the Trump admin will decide who gets precious interceptors. The US will restock itself first. And then whatever is left will get political. Gulf states, Israel and Ukraine will all seek urgent deliveries. 2/
The war in Iran is likely to cause a huge global shortage of air defense with dire implications for Ukraine. The Gulf states, US, Israel are using an enormous amount of Patriot interceptors. We can produce about 600/yr. They are using that up in 1-2 days. So... 1/
www.economist.com/middle-east-...
Hungary's veto on the €90 billion loan to Ukraine proves the European Union needs less unanimity, says Rob Jetten, the new Dutch prime minister.
"We cannot explain to our constituents that Europe is sometimes way too slow," Jetten said on his first trip to Brussels since taking office.
You can tariff their wine and their cheese. But, let me tell you something. If you embargo their jamon...
From what I can tell, the State Dept is behind on travel alerts for US citizens, ordered departures of non-emergency embassy personnel & other key safety moves when, you know, you go to war. Some sources say this is a result of sidelining career diplomats & not having a real policy process.
Couldn’t think of a better way to turn Democrats against NATO.
NEW 🚨 How will the Iran conflict hit European energy markets? And how should we react? In this piece, I argue that EU policymakers should plan for a potentially prolonged standoff in the Middle East, while doubling down – not backtracking – on the energy transition.
www.bruegel.org/first-glance...
With rising American demands for more equitable defense spending, the Northwood Declaration signals a stronger European pillar of deterrence that complements, not replaces, U.S. extended deterrence.
More from @erep.csis.org: https://bit.ly/4cTh1rH
Europe can't just spend more on Ukraine. It needs to spend smarter. Astrid Chevreuil, @ottosvendsen.bsky.social + @maxbergmann.bsky.social outline four priorities for building a force capable of deterring future Russian aggression.
Full piece below.
www.csis.org/analysis/how...
In a new episode of The Eurofile, @erep.csis.org experts Max and Donatienne are joined by Jude Blanchette, Distinguished Tang Chair in China Research and Director of the RAND China Research Center, to discuss the state of play in Europe’s China policy.
Listen here: https://bit.ly/4sfeoF7
Anthropic says that mass surveillance and fully autonomous weapons remain the two sticking points with DoD. In turn, DoD says it has no intention of doing either, but appears to refuse to accept restrictions on use. www.anthropic.com/news/stateme...
Europe agreed to an army once upon a time.
I think this is sad but may also indicate a more clear-eyed view of China. It ain't worth talking to them about human rights because they ain't changin. The "change through trade" vision and pressing on human rights went hand in hand. So if you drop the former no need to do the latter.
