alex

These Minneapolis neighborhoods aren't D+40. They were D+70 in 2024. Now they're probably D+80.

This is a terrible take. It's the same set of accusations made by libertarian doomers for the last 15 years. They believed them so strongly because they didn't understand what this means. It's the same estimation made for years.

What's worse even is that that dollar price implies 15% or so yield. Performing CCCs are at 10% and have rallied a few hundred basis points since these loans were underwritten, but these can't even get sold near par!

@employamerica.bsky.social is a great resource for macro and micro issues facing the economy, make sure to support them before the end of the year!

Good morning!

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Is this sovereign or NFC corporate?

We got a new Christmas tree, and I think there's a good chance its technology is more advanced than the first shuttle to the moon.

Increasing audits of UHNW taxpayers with new well paid IRS auditors will raise way more revenue.

Hot take: if your bite size is only $16mm of savings per efficiency project for the federal government, it's not really worth trying.

That doesn't seem like the right interpretation to me. Looking over 3m to avoid hurricane/strike noise, 55+ epop is down by ~half the decline in prime age epop. 16-24 epop is up in the same period.

This is a really good way to put it.

I wouldn't call it freezing cold but the labor market looks "concerningly cool"

The prime-age employment rate fell for the second straight month by a sizable chunk. Down to 80.4% in November from 80.9% in October

Saw something similar in 2023Q4 but reasons to be cautious rn

How Robert Lighthizer Got Shut Out of Trump’s Cabinet Donald Trump’s former trade chief was hoping to run Treasury or the Commerce Department, but his prospects faded as other candidates emerged.

Robert Lighthizer seemed like a shoo-in for a senior role in the Trump administration.

But he is expected to go home empty-handed after he expressed reluctance to engage in the behind-the-scenes jockeying that helped his competitors land crucial cabinet postings www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Alright who's copping the @employamerica.bsky.social shearling denim jacket @skandaamarnath.bsky.social

South Korea's Yoon Declares Martial Law in Emergency Address By Soo-Hyang Choi 12/03/2024 08:47:12 [BN] (Bloomberg) -- South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law on Tuesday in an emergency national address televised live. Yoon said the decision was made to protect freedom and constitutional order, as he accused the opposition of trying to paralyze the administration with impeachment moves. To contact the reporter on this story: Soo-Hyang Choi in Seoul at schoi437@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story:

Seems bad!

We did it, we made Thanksgiving woke.

Reminder: when ECB policymakers now refer to “the more dynamic regions of the euro area” they are talking about Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece.

www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/da...

The 10y yield is below where it was the day before the election

Amazing, thanks! The emergence of Reno as an offsetting factor to new build rather than moving in the same direction seems new and interesting, clearly tied to the golden handcuff 2.5% mortgage phenomenon.

btw at the same time Fed hawkishness is moderating

This makes the TCJA extension extremely messy. I mean everything could be messy, debt ceiling and CRs too. I wonder if that makes Trump madder and do more tariffs, hammer nail etc.

Where do you pull the renovation spending data? Nonresi renovations also would be interesting given cross currents of office bldg owners underwater vs conversions.

This is reasonable enough but it also feels like it's the easier thing to imagine after the first term, which was full of chaos and "serious not literally." Full tariffs, or and increasing set of demands to undo them, seems underpriced still.

This is nothing more than accounting identity but it is the easiest way to make people in markets or the incoming administration mad

Let's not forget about the OG Medicare frauster

The nominal wage gains sound rad

Predictions are hard, especially about the future

A chart of mortgage rates over the last year, with current at just over 7%

One massive headwind for growth is mortgage rates. Not as high as in April, but housing affordability has been getting even worse just as wage growth continues to fall. Add uncertainty over the last four years of easing eligibility from Agencies, it's tough to see housing helping growth anytime soon