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Arman Kafai

@armankafai

Trying to be the first MLS Cap Guy Current: πŸš™ Data Analyst Prev: ⚽️ Data w/ FC Dallas β˜„οΈUT Dallas β€˜19/20 BS/MS Economics https://footyanalyticmusings.substack.com/

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Latest posts by Arman Kafai @armankafai

Preview
2026 Primary Window GAM Release A glimpse into the (potential) futures of MLS teams

MLS released its latest GAM numbers again today, and we’re really seeing some interesting situations. Some teams are all in and there’s a new leader at the top of the GAM leaderboard.

06.03.2026 15:04 πŸ‘ 33 πŸ” 8 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 4

HernΓ‘n just depends on whether the club he’s at is paying his salary in full. I think he’s gone for the rest of the year and if he is and they’re paying it in full, SJ has a free another free DP spot. It was weird because the same was listed with Talles Magno at NYCFC; they had 3 DPs but were 2+4

06.03.2026 18:46 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

A lot of the times, the payments just haven’t been sent yet. You can’t just get the GAM without getting the actual money. It happened last year with DC and the Ku-DiPietro cashfer. Wasn’t reflected until later.

06.03.2026 18:39 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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2026 NWSL Previews: Denver Summit, Boston Legacy β€” American Soccer Analysis Our 2026 NWSL Season Previews have started and today we hit Denver and Boston. If you want to support this coverage of the league, you can head to our Patreon . For $5 a month you can get access ...

It’s preview tiiiiiime

@catabush.com tells us not to ignore the elephant in the room in Denver and @kierdoyle.bsky.social talks about Boston Internationals. Our friends at @xowngoals.com dropped audio previews for both teams today as well!

www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2026/3/...

06.03.2026 17:16 πŸ‘ 24 πŸ” 20 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 8
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Discretionary GAM.

06.03.2026 17:07 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

My understanding is that they are included. However, keep in mind that smart teams will use that dGAM first because of its limitations and expiration compared to just normal GAM

06.03.2026 16:52 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
2026 Primary Window GAM Release A glimpse into the (potential) futures of MLS teams

MLS released its latest GAM numbers again today, and we’re really seeing some interesting situations. Some teams are all in and there’s a new leader at the top of the GAM leaderboard.

06.03.2026 15:04 πŸ‘ 33 πŸ” 8 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 4
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A little late on the victory lap but last year I wrote about how Pep Biel's deal was similar (to a degree) to Rodrigo De Paul's Miami deal.

Well...

06.03.2026 04:38 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

probably the third string keeper!

05.03.2026 16:31 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Even worse!

05.03.2026 16:32 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Using an international spot on a backup keeper is surprising. You can do so much with international spot, including selling it (temporary too!) for some extra GAM. Not really sure about this

05.03.2026 16:30 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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How Does Luca Bombino Keep Getting Away With It? A really interesting usage for a really interesting player

Getting a little more niche with it this week. A good read for fans of San Diego, MLS, and weird soccer

substack.com/@scnate3/not...

04.03.2026 15:25 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
πŸŽ™οΈ Is New York for real? Inter Miami's win was ___. MLS Week ✌🏼 reactions | The Hex Ep. 61 full pod
πŸŽ™οΈ Is New York for real? Inter Miami's win was ___. MLS Week ✌🏼 reactions | The Hex Ep. 61 full pod YouTube video by The Hex Soccer Podcast

Yooo the latest Hex is out with @armankafai.bsky.social & @jonarnoldfc.bsky.social

If you haven't listened our format is kind of PTI style with six topics (hex!) each week 7-8 min per topic (we try) and I think you'll love it.

Is RBNY going to stay in the top 4?

www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3YP...

04.03.2026 15:44 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

And I just wanted to say I have no affiliation with this app at all. I just saw it out there lol

04.03.2026 01:46 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Can also go through and rate games you watched previously. Just put together a small review of Red Bull-Revs

03.03.2026 20:11 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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It’s Brazilian and MLS has so little votes on its stuff. Would be interesting to see what the consensus game of the week is after the fact if we can get some volume on there. I joined with my user being @Kafdaddy but check it out and see what you think:

apps.apple.com/us/app/futez...

03.03.2026 20:05 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

There’s an app called Futez on the AppStore that’s aiming to be the Letterboxed of soccer. It’s a little buggy but it allows you to rate a match from 1-10 based on atmosphere, the game, and referring plus allowing you to rate players. I’m proposing us MLS folks take it over and start rating matches

03.03.2026 20:05 πŸ‘ 17 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1

Yeah maybe I shouldn’t do this anymore after saying an ass off was my #1

01.03.2026 03:42 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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Obviously Miami Orando is a rivalry match. They don’t like each other. They both looked rough in Week 1. Both would love a bounce back result over the other. Throw tactics out the window, let’s have fun with it in Florida.

27.02.2026 16:54 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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LAFC dominated Miami last week and looked really comfortable throughout the match. Interested how they fair against a team who also wants to dominate the ball like Miami did. Houston surprised me; want to see what another week of Bogusz will bring.

27.02.2026 16:54 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Nashville/FCD is the battle of two of the best strikers in MLS. Surridge vs Musa. BJ Callaghan has brought a fun style of soccer to Nashville. Eric Quill has brought a wild ass brand to Dallas. Has the makings of a higher scoring game.

27.02.2026 16:54 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Every week, gonna post my 3 games I’m watching for the weekend. I did this as a blog last year but it really got caught up in other things, so sticking with a skeet instead! This is in no order ⚽️⚽️⚽️

1. Nashville SC @ FC Dallas
2. LAFC @ Houston
3. Miami @ Orlando

27.02.2026 16:54 πŸ‘ 11 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
Preview
a cartoon of grinch says `` i have a plan '' . ALT: a cartoon of grinch says `` i have a plan '' .
27.02.2026 16:08 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Club Roster Profiles_Feb 2026.pdf | Powered by Box

Today, MLS released club roster profiles for each of the 30 MLS clubs as of February 26.
mlssoccer.box.com/s/8rlpwuftsh...

27.02.2026 16:02 πŸ‘ 23 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 11

MLS released the latest edition of the roster profiles today. We’ll be doing the full analysis on FAM once we receive the GAM numbers to fully contextualize the moves and decisions made next week

27.02.2026 16:01 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

This is exactly it. Great call out Long

27.02.2026 04:05 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Yup. It isn’t used often because most of the time if your salary is near there… you’re already a supplemental player. But there’s edge cases

27.02.2026 03:18 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Could potentially be a supplemental player as well. Teams can buy down players to the supplemental roster and Ramirez’s budget charge is pretty close to that number. The Galaxy will be on the hook for the rest of his budget charge, which they are either buying out or eating (my guess is buyout)

27.02.2026 02:44 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

In the case of Cubas, his AABC was around $2M on his current deal. His transfer fee is doing the bulk of the work on that (his base salary is $1.15M). Give him an extension around that amount and you're looking at an average that falls below the Max TAM line of $1.803M.

26.02.2026 02:48 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

The Andres Cubas extension is one of the funnier nuances in MLS. Basically, if you offer an extension that isn't a full DP level to a full DP, the league can decide to average out the budget charges between the two deals.

26.02.2026 02:48 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1