Mike Brady

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer:

“What I was not prepared to do on Saturday was for the UK to join a war unless I was satisfied there was a lawful basis and a viable, thought-through plan. That remains my position."

Has the US Congress even asked Trump what his plan is yet? Or endorsed his war?

Wouldn’t it be ironic if Richard Tice MP, the Reform UK deputy leader who lives the expat lifestyle in Dubai when not running down the UK, decided to flee the risks of Middle East instability and seek refuge back home.

LibDem vote was 1399 in 2024 when Labour was way in front. It’s just not “winning here”.

LibDem vote was 653 in the by-election, so potentially 746 might have voted Green to keep Reform out.

But even without those votes, Reform would have lost, even if the Green/Labour vote split 50/50.

The art of the deal. Trump says he will negotiate with Iranian leaders after killing most of those involved in the last round of negotiations. While calling for the population to rise up and overthrow the regime. ⬇️

So, will he back the revamped regime (as in Venezuela) or kill the new negotiators?

Trump ties Iran strikes to claims that Tehran interfered in U.S. elections President Donald Trump suggested Saturday that his military strike against Iran may have been driven in part by claims that the country interfered in the last two U.S. presidential elections.

The Iranian regime is abhorrent, but this is logic on a Trumpian scale:

Iran allegedly (i.e., probably didn’t) tried to influence who would be US President ⬇️ …

so Trump thinks he is justified to kill its leaders and cause a civil war to install a leader he prefers.

I guess that’s asymmetry.

Wag the dog, Donald.

Wag the dog, Donald.

One lesson to draw from the Gorton and Denton by-election is that if the Greens and Labour attract a broad enough range of voters between them, Reform will always be second or third. Even when the Tory vote collapses.

Replace one of them by LibDems or Plaid Cymru as appropriate.

Take two.

People are missing the point of the maths of the Gorton and Denton by-election, including @zackpolanski.bsky.social

Tactical voting is necessary if splitting the anti-Reform vote between Greens and Labour would allow Reform through.

In this case, there was no such risk - Reform was so unpopular.

Tell me the nonsense you think I am clinging to.

Woosh!

Exactly.

To make it clearer, move any number of Green votes to Labour or Labour votes to the Greens and Reform still lose.

Woosh!

The point being missed.

Tactical voting had nothing to do with the result in Gorton and Denton.

The maths…

Here is a very encouraging message from Gorton and Denton.

How true will this be of other constituencies?

This is the real good news from Gorton and Denton. ⬇️

In how many other constituencies will this be true?

Sorry, Zach. Do the maths.

That is mathematically impossible.

Here’s the great news from Gorton and Denton that no-one seems to be talking about. ⬇️

In how many constituencies might this be true?

The good news from the Gorton and Denton by-election.

In how many constituencies might this be true?

Then the country is doomed: Reform leads the opinion polls.

The least educated back Farage. Maybe it’s better to educate them, so they understand he is a charlatan and will make their lives worse, while actually delivering to make them better.

It is too simplistic to say that people are Reform-curious because they are racist.

The pitches are:

Your life is a struggle because of…

…uncontrolled migration (Reform)

…billionaires (Greens)

…14 years of Tory rule (Labour)

Who puts the best case and most convincing solutions wins.

Write off the concerns of 29% of the population and Farage may end up with 52% believing his distortions of reality again.

The Reform vote was 29%.

That’s an awful lot of people to detest and write off.

Farage is a charlatan who helped convince 52% to vote Leave against their own best interests.

My view is listening, addressing the real issues and shooting down the myths is better than giving them up to Farage.

Agreed the left should not be courting the votes of right-wing racists.

But Reform-curious are also voters who think the country isn’t working and Farage has the answers.

Starmer isn’t writing them off, but aims to fix the country so populism loses steam.

I see people suggesting the by-election result should convince Labour to shift leftwards to reduce losses to the Greens.

Surely better that Reform-curious voters have two options: populist left or centre-left technocrats.

And debate which of those two options will deliver most effectively.

I see people suggesting the by-election result should convince Labour to shift leftwards to reduce losses to the Greens.

Surely better that Reform-curious voters have two options: populist left or centre-left technocrats.

And debate which of those two options will deliver most effectively.

I see people suggesting the by-election result should convince Labour to shift leftwards to reduce losses to the Greens.

Surely better that Reform-curious voters have two options: populist left or centre-left technocrats.

And debate which of those two options will deliver most effectively.