Analysis by @jbdacey.bsky.social, Ellie Geranmayeh, @hlovatt.bsky.social, @cinziabianco.bsky.social, Majda Ruge, @asliaydintasbas.bsky.social, @jkobzova.bsky.social & @ajwsmall.bsky.social 👇️ ecfr.eu/article/a-wa...
Not to comment on the substance of the plan but "reverse enlargement" sounds a bit weird. I mean, technically, the reversal of enlargement is...shrinking...or...reducing? Ahem
www.politico.eu/article/5-st...
Please have a look - sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words.
Alert: champagne popping in the Kremlin
This is not so say that Kyiv is winning — it’s to say that much more can be done for Russia to feel the pain and costs of Putin’s longest war. 4 years since his 3 day “operation” began, Putin is still far from reaching his goals.
🎧 New Week, New episode!
@markhleonard.bsky.social is joined by @jkobzova.bsky.social, Julien Barnes-Dacey, Jana Kobzová, Andrew Small and Alex Vines to discuss what challenges Europe should focus on in 2026. What dynamic political shifts might we see this year?
https://bit.ly/4jALdcw
One would think that by now, my points are kind of obvious and yet here we are: 10 points the Europeans need to take into account when asking for a seat at the table on #Ukraine:
ecfr.eu/article/no-c...
Donald Trump’s 28-point plan to end the fighting in Ukraine would be a dream outcome for the Kremlin. Here is how Europeans can ensure it does not become their continent’s nightmare (by @jkobzova.bsky.social)
ecfr.eu/article/what...
Donald Trump’s 28-point plan to end the fighting in Ukraine would be a dream outcome for the Kremlin. @jkobzova.bsky.social outlines how Europeans can ensure it does not become their continent’s nightmare
⬇️
ecfr.eu/article/what...
Jim O’Brien does most of the eloquent speaking-I just added why the plan won’t work in the current form & why it’s dangerous for #Europe’s own security.
Btw:for Moscow, the phrase “all ambiguities of the last 30 yrs” in point #2 is the new version of “root causes”, i.e.same demands as in Dec 2021.
In this week's podcast, @jyshapiro.bsky.social, @jkobzova.bsky.social and Jim O’Brien analyze the implications of these developments, including the potential impact on global energy strategies and the conflict’s trajectory.
https://ecfr.eu/podcasts/episode/ukraine-russia-and-trumps-sanctions-gamble/
Note to those who are already celebrating yet another Trump’s u-turn: on #Ukraine the key message here is that the #U.S. will do this only if and when the Europeans impose the tariffs first.
Continued my annual tradition of writing for @ecfr.eu on Russia’s local elections. The Kremlin uses these votes to test what may happen in the real campaigns
In 2025 we saw the growing role of war veterans—now entering regional parliaments and expected to fill the Duma in 2026
ecfr.eu/article/fro...
Still one of the best analyses of what #Russia’s recent local elections mean for the west, by @kominmo.bsky.social for @ecfr.eu
As the polling stations in #Moldova close, here's a reminder from my @ecfr.eu colleagues @gvalodskaite.bsky.social and Leo Litra on what's at stake at this election:
ecfr.eu/article/love...
#UNGA80 🧵
1/ Today, the UN Security Council meets to discuss the situation in Ukraine. In our latest podcast episode, Mark Leonard and
@jkobzova.bsky.social focused on the key developments in Russia’s war on Ukraine during the summer.
ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...
In the war in #Ukraine, “dog days” doesn’t equal “inactivity”. As #UNGA starts in full swing, here’s a recap of what’s been happening in & around Ukraine over the summer and what that means for Europe and the U.S. (spoiler alert: increasing transatlantic rift).
Bonne chance Marie!!!
Still in shock. I remember Andriy back from the EuroMaidan days, as the “kommandant” of Maidan. RIP
also, I think that this week, it's quite appropriate to repost this post-mortem on #Minsk agreements written by my brilliant ex-colleague from @ecfr.eu @dumoulinme.bsky.social who has direct experience from those talks.
ecfr.eu/article/ukra...
Per @financialtimes.com, a European diplomat described #Russia’s insistence on involving #China “a WTF moment”.
Frankly, I had such moment when I heard that Witkoff really believed that Moscow would agree to “Art 5-like security guarantees” for #Ukraine 🤷🏽♀️
www.ft.com/content/3851...
One thing we didn’t hear from the Europeans though is the threat of more pressure on Russia if there’s no ceasefire or a deal. They explicitly mentioned such option in their post-Alaska statement on Saturday — yet no one mentioned it during the press mtg w/ Trump.
US-Ukraine-European leaders' mtg is still ongoing, so any outcomes TBC. But Kyiv & EU already sent a clear message to both Trump & Russia: #Ukraine is not alone and Europe is serious about own responsibility for how the war ends & how security in #Europe is ensured.
Indeed but the spin Putin was projecting was that he’s treated as a leader of a superpower. Plus on nuclear, Russia kind of still is a super power. That’s not a moral judgement, just a comment on its nuclear arsenal.
6/ Finally, for Russia, maybe the main goal is what I mentioned before: neutralize the US as much as possible from Ukraine, militarily and diplomatically. And in that, Putin may be slowly succeeding I am afraid. Let's see what Zelenskyy's Monday meeting w/ Trump brings.
5/ Still, Kyiv is ready for a ceasefire - if coupled with continued military aid (ie a security guarantee against another RU attack) and no de iure concessions. Why would Putin go for such deal now isn't clear: after 3.5 yrs of full-scale war, he doesn't even control all of Ukraine's Donbas.
4/ The key for the Europeans now is to prove him wrong by continuing mil.aid to #Ukraine & increasing pressure on Russia (using frozen assets, limiting sanctions' circumvention, etc.). This might later force a rethink in the Kremlin - Trump's red carpet and flatteries alone won't suffice.
3/ which are: limitations on #Ukraine's sovereignty and on #NATO presence in Eastern Europe. Kyiv and rest of #Europe won't agree to that. Putin thinks that if he can't get these goals diplomatically, he's got enough bandwidth to achieve them on the battlefield.
2/ The US & RU may have reached an understanding of an outline of a deal and put the responsibility on #Ukraine and #Europe. Zelenskyy to travel to DC on Monday. Putin's talk of 'root causes' of the war & the need to 'rebalance' European security means he's given no ground of his core demands
post-Alaska follow-up on yday's thread: #Putin visibly content w/ red-carpet treatment & no immediate threat of #US sanctions. Trump delighted by the optics of a mtg of two superpowers. Contrast w/ how he treated Zelenskyy in the Oval Office could hardly be higher /1
