#employment #payroll #canada #provinces
I have released the payroll employment charts. Thinks are slowing.
www.jacobsonconsulting.com/jci_site/ind...
My substack notes are available as well.
pauljacobson.substack.com/p/payroll-em...
#merchandise #exports #imports #canada - My substack points to a lot of detailed charts. We have a lot of moving parts including the exchange rate and prices. Our economy is evolving. IMHO this is more than a hissy fit.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
#canada #cpi My substack perspective on the CPI release for January 2026 shows highlights supply factors and regional markets. The story is more than just gas prices.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
Norloff (uot) outlines ho we the tech boys are succeeding in destroying the access to information we need.
Democracy Dies in Broad Daylight by Carla Norrlöf @projectsyndicate.bsky.social prosyn.org/yQoOm0Y?refe...
#employment hashtag#canada hashtag#provinces - The regional labour markets are driven by their sectoral mix. The result is very different trends. My substack will give you my ideas.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
Trump Has Killed American Deterrence by Stephen Holmes @projectsyndicate.bsky.social prosyn.org/U9dDNQW?refe...
I have combined my quick thoughts on GDP and payroll employment into one post. The SEPH employment provides a regional perspective on GDP. We have a complex economy. pauljacobson.substack.com/p/gdp-2025-1...
My latest substack covers merchandise trade by commodity and country through 2025-11.
pauljacobson.substack.com/p/merchandis...
Great concept and drawing
This chart shows how the distribution of price changes across 184 unique (unweighted) CPI product categories has evolved since 2021. The inflation surge is evident between late 2021 and Jan 2024, as is a smaller over-correction relative to the 2% target until the spring of 2025. #cdnecon
#productivty #2025-q3
Uncertainty headwinds and tariff silliness have had their mark. Output has been driving the short-term changes in productivity rather than labour inputs.
Labour Productivity and Cost 2025-q3
pauljacobson.substack.com
Look at the clothing bar in chart 2. Provincial differences are significant (p107) suggesting that local market factors are critical.
CPI 2025-10 -
#cpi #canada #provinces #2025-10 – The y/y price change in 2025-10 is slightly lower, strongly influenced by the y/y change in gasoline. The Daily’s opening chart shows that without gasoline changes, the plot of y/y changes is really not doing much.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
AI is not used. All charts and ideas are by Paul Jacobson.
#lfs #canada #provinces #2025-10 –
We have growth but in aggregate, services are the story with a big emphasis on retail/wholesale and transportation. At the Canada level, construction employment continues to slide. Here is a substack
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
A very useful study. The weaker economies hadvthr most to gain and generally did.
www.euronews.com/business/202...
#gdp #canada #2025-07 – It is an uptick, folks, driven by goods, but the uptick just offsets the downdraft from the preceding 2 months. Substack summary:
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
In the food aggregates chart, you will see a one-off inclusion of coffee prices. I added this because coffee is important in our household. Supply effects have dominated. As with most consumer prices, demand management (IMHO) is not an issue since we do not produce many commodities that we consume.
The Daily notes:
“Gasoline prices fell to a lesser extent year over year in August (-12.7%) than in July (-16.1%), leading to faster growth in headline inflation. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.4% in August, after increasing 2.5% in each of the previous three months.”
#cpi hashtag#canada hashtag#provinces #2025-08 – Gasoline volatility really bounces the aggregate
The substack contains more detail.
CPI 2025-08 - Volatility, Gas prices and supply effects
pauljacobson.substack.com
LFS Employment 2025-08 #lfs #employment #canada #provinces the weakness continues
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
Perspective (starting point) matters. Headline y/y CPI change was 1.9% compared to 1.7% in May. Price change in monthly terms is relatively soft. The monthly chart is not bounced by the carbon tax in June but look at April.
CPI Inflation - Bounces due to energy open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
Ontario's college crisis needs immediate action and funding to protect education. Cartoon in the Friday Hamilton Spectator: www.thespec.com/opinion/doug...
LFS Employment 2025-06 #canada hashtag#employment hashtag#provinces #202506 - The Daily reports employment gains for core-aged males (+62,000; +0.8%) and females (+29,000; +0.4%)in the reference week of June 15-21 2025. A small gain after flat is not exciting.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
Industry GDP through 2025-04 #gdp #canada -With data through 2025-04, our perspective is conditioned by 90 days of Trumpian TACO turmoil. Aggregate GDP dropped by 0.1%. The initial charts shows it could have been worse without public and finance sector growth.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
Payroll Employment and Vacancies - 2025-04 #canada #provinces. A flat aggregate hides a lot of action. See the substack.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
#canada #provinces #inflation - Inflation is stable but the details matter both by category and regioin.
CPI Inflation 2025-05 1.7% open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
Canada is a small open economy. Trade is important both for exports and imports. Personal consumption includes goods of varying characteristics and services.
CONSUMPTION SHARES FOR 2023 OF IMPORTS, MARGINS AND TAXES open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
The dreadful Bill 17 | in the Friday Hamilton Spectator #onpoli www.thespec.com/opinion/edit...
LFS - May 2025 - Flat (more or less)
A flat national employment aggregate masks a lot of provincial variation.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
