OSW - Centre for Eastern Studies

Diplomacy under strain: Turkey’s stance on Iran In a statement issued on 4 March, Turkey’s Ministry of National Defence announced that an Iranian ballistic missile heading towards Turkish airspace had been shot down. It was most likely bound for th...

Diplomacy under strain: Turkey’s stance on Iran
🔵Concerns about the conflict in🇮🇷, firm opposition to🇮🇱policies, and a preference for regional solutions led🇹🇷to distance itself from the war and to press for a return to diplomacy.

More from Karol Wasilewski⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

Sweden and the erosion of the nuclear taboo Since the beginning of January this year, a debate on nuclear deterrence has been under way in Sweden.

Sweden and the erosion of the nuclear taboo

🇸🇪Stockholm is open to strengthening the European dimension of the🇫🇷French and🇬🇧British nuclear umbrella, as well as to engaging in discussions on a broader European nuclear deterrence.

Analysis by @jgotkowska⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

Protests in Serbia: the government and its opponents close ranks Since the beginning of 2026, attempts have intensified to remobilise the Serbian student movement – the driving force behind the mass demonstrations that erupted following the construction disaster at...

🔵Protests in Serbia 🇷🇸: the government and its opponents close ranks
🔵Participants continue to demand accountability for those responsible for the tragedy and are calling for a snap election to be held.

Jan Nowinowski has more ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

US and Israeli strikes on Iran: an attempt to engineer regime change On 28 February, the armed forces of the United States and Israel launched a large-scale campaign of air strikes against Iran, codenamed Operation Epic Fury by the Pentagon and Lion’s Roar by the Israe...

🔵US and Israeli strikes on Iran: an attempt to engineer regime change

🔵The OSW team takes a comprehensive outlook on the current situation in Iran 🇮🇷 From military objectives to economic consequences ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

Sky-high ambitions of the Orbán government: Budapest’s air cargo boom In recent years, Hungary has seen significant growth in air freight. In 2024, Budapest Ferenc Liszt International Airport handled nearly 300,000 tonnes of cargo, recording an annual increase of 50% an...

🔵Sky-high ambitions of the Orbán government: Budapest’s air cargo boom
🔵The growing importance of China in🇭🇺air cargo sector in recent years reflects the close cooperation between the Orbán govt and🇨🇳in transport infrastructure and FDI.

🔵By OSW's Ilona Gizińska ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

Turkey and nuclear weapons: playing a game of strategic ambiguity In media appearances this February, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has suggested that international developments could prompt Turkey to acquire nuclear weapons. Ankara is concerned about the prospect of...

Turkey and nuclear weapons: playing a game of strategic ambiguity

❝Amid the instability in the Middle East, public support in🇹🇷Turkey for developing an indigenous nuclear weapons capability has increased.❞

Analysis by Karol Wasilewski ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

Sometimes it is better not to talk. Pitfalls of potential dialogue between Europe and Russia In recent weeks, discussions have intensified regarding the possible resumption of dialogue – including at the highest political level – between the European Union, its Member States, and the Russian ...

Sometimes it is better not to talk. Pitfalls of potential dialogue between Europe and Russia
🔵A return to dialogue with🇷🇺would strengthen the Putin regime's internal legitimacy & aid the continuation of its aggressive foreign policy.

By Marek Menkiszak⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

Sanctions against Lukashenka. A shift in Ukraine’s policy towards Belarus On 18 February, Ukraine imposed sanctions on Alyaksandr Lukashenka owing to Belarus’s growing involvement in supporting Russia’s war effort and circumventing the sanctions regime.

🔴Sanctions against Lukashenka. A shift in Ukraine’s policy towards Belarus

🔵Despite their symbolic nature, the sanctions against Lukashenka confirm a reorientation of Ukraine’s policy towards Belarus.

🔴Details by OSW's Kacper Sienicki ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

New government in Kosovo: the end of the political crisis On 11 February, at its first session following the December parliamentary elections, the Assembly of Kosovo passed a vote of confidence in the new cabinet, headed by Albin Kurti, leader of the victori...

🔵New government in Kosovo🇽🇰: the end of the political crisis

🔵The government’s main ambition is to achieve EU 🇪🇺 membership, but the slim chances of normalising relations with Serbia make that prospect highly distant.

🔵By OSW's Michał Kucharski ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

Moldova: a convergence fund instead of a reintegration plan On 11 February, Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration, Valeriu Chiveri, announced the creation of a so-called convergence fund, which will be financed from resources provided by internation...

🔵Moldova: a convergence fund instead of a reintegration plan

➡️The convergence fund is not a comprehensive plan for the reintegration of 🇲🇩 Instead it's intended to deflect accusations that the government is doing little to reunify the country.

🔵By OSW's Kamil Całus ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

Russia has been fighting in Ukraine for four years now. Is it winning the🇷🇺Russia-Ukraine🇺🇦war?

📊We take a look at the facts and figures so you can make up your own mind.⤵️

Russia has been fighting in Ukraine for four years now. Is it winning the🇷🇺Russia-Ukraine🇺🇦war?

📊We take a look at the facts and figures so you can make up your own mind.⤵️

Russia has been fighting in Ukraine for four years now. Is it winning the🇷🇺Russia-Ukraine🇺🇦war?

📊We take a look at the facts and figures so you can make up your own mind.⤵️

Russia has been fighting in Ukraine for four years now. Is it winning the🇷🇺Russia-Ukraine🇺🇦war?

📊We take a look at the facts and figures so you can make up your own mind.⤵️

Russia has been fighting in Ukraine for four years now. Is it winning the🇷🇺Russia-Ukraine🇺🇦war?

📊We take a look at the facts and figures so you can make up your own mind.⤵️

Tashiev’s dismissal: a political earthquake in Kyrgyzstan On 10 February, the President of Kyrgyzstan, Sadyr Japarov, issued a decree removing Kamchybek Tashiev – de facto the second most powerful figure in the state – from his post as head of the State Comm...

🇰🇬Tashiev’s dismissal: a political earthquake in Kyrgyzstan

🔵Attempts by Tashiev to regain power appear unlikely. The process of removing his supporters from state positions was carried out with remarkable speed.

Daria Zielińska explains⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

OSW Monitor. Hungary election, no. 1 The parliamentary election scheduled for 12 April in Hungary is set to take place within a wholly new configuration of the political landscape. Fidesz, led by Viktor Orbán and the clear victor in the ...

➡️Up to April 12th, we’ll be following the political situation in Hungary🇭🇺 ahead of the elections.

We look at ⤵️
🔴the latest analysis of the polls
⚪️a deep dive into the Fidesz and Tisza parties
🟢an overview of the main events leading up to the election
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

The party needs an enemy: China and the conservatives’ victory in Japan The scale of the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) victory in Japan’s snap election to the House of Representatives (the lower house of parliament) was unprecedented in post-war Japanese history and to...

The party needs an enemy: China🇨🇳 and the conservatives’ victory in Japan🇯🇵

China’s pressure tactics against Prime Minister Takaichi have proved counterproductive, prompting some commentators to speculate that 🇨🇳 may adjust its course.

By OSW's Michał Bogusz ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

A greater US presence in the Caucasus. Vice President Vance in Armenia and Azerbaijan On 9–10 February, US Vice President J.D. Vance visited Armenia and Azerbaijan. In Yerevan, he signed an agreement with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on cooperation in the field of nuclear energy, ena...

A greater🇺🇸US presence in the Caucasus. Vice President Vance in🇦🇲Armenia and🇦🇿Azerbaijan

🔵It does not appear likely that a formal peace treaty will be signed soon. Nevertheless, peace has, in practice, already taken hold.

Wojciech Górecki has the details⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

Russia - the last bastion of conservative values? YouTube video by Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)

Russia - the last bastion of conservative values?

🔵We check if🇷🇺Russia is as conservative as it claims. We look at data on abortion, drug abuse, divorce and church attendance in Russia.

❓Is Russia more traditional than the "morally corrupt West"?🇺🇸🇪🇺🇬🇧
www.youtube.com/watch?v=EOeb...

Turkey and the EU: renewed efforts in a complex web of disputes On 6 February 2026, the EU Commissioner for Enlargement, Marta Kos, arrived in Ankara, where she met the Minister of Treasury and Finance, Mehmet Şimşek, and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hakan Fid...

🔵Turkey🇹🇷 and the EU🇪🇺: renewed efforts in a complex web of disputes

🔵The EU Commissioner’s visit may be regarded as a continuation of the gradual process of rebuilding political relations with Turkey.

➡️ OSW's Adam Michalski has the details ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

Excessive dependence? The growing role of US LNG and oil in the EU market Since 2022, the EU has undergone a rapid transformation of its natural gas and crude oil import mix. Faced with Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, now in its fourth year, and the Russian-Europea...

🔵Excessive dependence? The growing role of US LNG and oil in the EU market
🗨️The nature of the bloc’s dependence on US LNG remains markedly different from the dependence European countries have experienced with regard to Russian gas.

🔘By @agataloskot.bsky.social ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

The economies of the Baltic states: recession, stagnation and acceleration The economies of the Baltic states have in recent years experienced a series of shocks, triggered by the global pandemic and the outbreak of the full-scale war in Ukraine. Nearly four years of turbule...

🔵The economies of the Baltic states: recession, stagnation and acceleration

Bartosz Chmielewski has the details on which of the three Baltic countries 🇱🇹🇱🇻🇪🇪 has been outrunning its neighbours in economic growth over the past decade ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

Germany: new law on the protection of critical infrastructure On 29 January, with the votes of the CDU/CSU–SPD coalition and the opposition AfD, the Bundestag adopted a framework law on the protection of critical infrastructure (the KRITIS umbrella law), impleme...

Germany 🇩🇪: new law on the protection of critical infrastructure

➡️The adopted regulations form part of a broader set of measures undertaken by Germany to strengthen protection against hybrid threats.
➡️
Michał Kędzierski & Kamil Frymark have the details ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

Ukrainian attacks on the CPC oil pipeline: outlook for Kazakhstan’s oil sector Kazakhstan’s oil sector is facing a serious crisis due to reduced throughput of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), caused by Ukrainian drone attacks in November 2025 and January of this year. The ...

🔵Ukrainian attacks on the CPC oil pipeline: outlook for Kazakhstan’s oil sector

As much as 80% of 🇰🇿 oil exports flow through the CPC. As a result of the Ukrainian attacks, Kazakhstan has incurred multi-million dollar losses.

🔵By @Daria Zielińska⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

Chinese connected cars: are they a security threat? YouTube video by Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)

📽️Our latest video looks at connected cars from China through the lens of the EU's cybersecurity.

🔵What do we know about the data these smartphones on wheels collect? And do they pose a security threat?

🔴We answer these and other questions ⤵️
youtu.be/HmKRCUc9AVU

An uncertain future for Rosatom’s nuclear technology exports Despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Rosatom, unlike many other Russian energy companies, has not faced significant Western sanctions. This has enabled it to continue operating in the key are...

🔵An uncertain future for Rosatom’s nuclear technology exports

🔵Despite Russia’s 🇷🇺 invasion of Ukraine 🇺🇦 in 2022, Rosatom, unlike many other Russian energy companies, has not faced significant Western sanctions.

➡️More insight by OSW's Filip Rudnik ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

Czech defence conglomerate CSG becomes the most valuable company in Central Europe On 23 January, the Czech-based defence conglomerate Czechoslovak Group (CSG) made an exceptionally successful debut on the Euronext Amsterdam stock exchange. The company’s market value surged by 30% t...

Czech defence conglomerate CSG becomes the most valuable company in Central Europe

🇨🇿CSG has benefited from rising defence spending among NATO’s member states and from the supply of weapons and military equipment to🇺🇦Ukraine.

Krzysztof Dębiec has more⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

MOL moves towards acquiring Russian stakes in Serbia’s NIS On 19 January, the Hungarian oil and gas company MOL announced that it had signed a binding heads of agreement with the Russian petrochemical company Gazprom Neft to purchase a 56.2% stake in Serbia’s...

Hungary's🇭🇺MOL moves towards acquiring Russian stakes in 🇷🇸Serbia’s NIS

🛢️The completion of the transaction would mark the first case of Russian🇷🇺oil assets in Europe being sold under pressure from US sanctions.

Analysis by Jan Nowinowski⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

Central Asia integration - a new powerhouse? YouTube video by Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)

Central Asia - Can this region surrounded by powerful neighbours, such as🇷🇺Russia and🇨🇳China, integrate to become a new powerhouse?
🇰🇿🇰🇬🇹🇯🇹🇲🇺🇿
What does the future hold for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan?⤵️
youtu.be/MgoKdT_f5Fw