Unemployment ticked back upwards to 4.4% in February.
06.03.2026 13:55
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Unemployment ticked back upwards to 4.4% in February.
The US shed 92K jobs from its payrolls in February, significantly undershooting expectations.
One of Trump’s favorite lies has been that he’s sent gas prices below $2/gallon. That was never true, but it’s even less believable now that his attack on Iran has sent prices skyrocketing.
The breakeven rate, which captures the market’s inflation expectations, rose on the news of Trump’s Iran attack.
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Donald Trump’s Iran strike conflicts with his aspirations for ultra-low interest rates. Markets have raised their rate expectations for the next couple years.
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In the last 5 years, America has become a net exporter of petroleum. That emboldened Trump’s risky actions in the Middle East.
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Oil prices surged upon Trump’s attack on Iran, and Americans are already seeing the effects at the gas pump.
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Most of the oil exported from the Middle East travels through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump’s new war stands to grind that traffic to a halt.
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Following Trump’s attack, Iran has essentially shut down traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about a fifth of global oil production.
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Trump continues to claim that other countries pay tariffs. A recent study found that nearly all of his tariffs are being paid by Americans.
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Trump said that tariffs may replace the income tax. That’s ridiculous.
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Trump promised that new factories and jobs would pour into the US, but spending on manufacturing-related construction actually decreased last year (after booming under Biden).
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Trump painted a picture of an American economy flush with jobs. In reality, he brought job growth to a halt.
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Trump claimed that he inherited record inflation and then sent it plummeting. He started his term with modestly elevated inflation and, by some metrics, actually raised it.
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Trump claimed that he inherited a stagnant economy and turned it into a roaring one. In reality, he oversaw a decrease in GDP growth.
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Consumer confidence rebounded in February, but still remains below end-of-2025 levels.
I joined Henry Blodget on his latest Solutions podcast to discuss my recent op-ed for @nytopinion.nytimes.com on Trump’s missteps in competing with China.
open.spotify.com/episode/63Zv...
Underwater on virtually every major issue, Trump will have a tough time convincing America that the State of the Union is strong tomorrow night.
cc: @washingtonpost.com
At his State of the Union tomorrow, Trump is sure to brag that his economy is booming. But Americans know that jobs are hard to find these days — under Trump’s watch, the number of unemployed job seekers surpassed the number of openings.
I joined Charlie Rose to discuss how Trump’s tariffs – many of which were just struck down by the Supreme Court – are not doing anything to protect America from Chinese competition.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8YW...
I joined Charlie Rose on Friday to talk about the wide-ranging significance of the landmark Supreme Court decision striking down Trump’s IEEPA tariffs.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziUi...
By striking down Trump's IEEPA tariffs today, the Supreme Court nearly halved the effective tariff rate, down to 9.1% from 16.9%.
But rates are still far above pre-2025 levels.
PCE inflation rose to 2.9% in December, exceeding expectations.
GDP growth dropped to 1.4% in the last quarter of 2025, bringing growth for the year to 2.2%.
Entitlements and interest are eating the federal budget, while defense and other discretionary spending are set to drop (as a share of GDP).
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Federal debt held by the public is forecasted to reach 156% by 2050. And unfortunately, projections have historically undershot reality.
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If you hear the Trump administration bragging about decreased deficits in 2025, don’t be fooled: the temporary decrease will be offset by future years of elevated deficits thanks to their expensive tax bill.
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Despite the GOP’s efforts to slash the budget, deficits are set to increase in 2026, mostly due to their One Big Beautiful Bill.
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Trump sought deep cuts to the EPA, HUD, CDC, NIH, and more. Congress by and large left spending levels unchanged.
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American immigrants are upwardly mobile. While first-generation immigrants earn less than the average American, their children go on to earn more.
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