07.03.2026 00:07
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Rosie has realised we will be flying to Europe on her birthday, and has demanded that one hour of the return flight be officially recognised as the missing 4.2% of her birthday.
I should say if it was a European bank - Michelle Bowman withdrew all the guidance on reputational risk so I don't know what the current fed supervisor position is on step in
For context, if Blackstone was a bank it would absolutely not be permitted to do this (it's called "step in risk"). Even if it's the office Christmas party fund, you're creating an expectation.
Fair enough to this, but I think if you say it you kind of ought to indicate what the things are which are pointing in the other direction. Because if it's just "last month's jobs report" that's weak
Today is not as good as yesterday, but better than tomorrow
... I think that means they have to come up with something at least six times as extreme as a war in the middle east
(Who am I kidding we are just going to get dozens of Citrini memos, but it's fun to think someone is making the case for ant apocalypse)
It has just struck me that the requirement for the ECB "reverse stress test" is that banks have to create a reasoned and justified geopolitical scenario with 300bp of capital impact. Since I think it's very unlikely that any European bank will see even 50bp of losses from current events...
square and easy to wrap, like Lego
I continue to explore the general theory of fudge factors
backofmind.substack.com/p/the-fudge-...
In which case the lesson we have learnt from the last financial crisis is "don't let a marketing problem swim upstream and become a systemic risk"
People thought MMFs couldn't break the buck because the industry spent so much time and went through so many ridiculous maneuvers trying to avoid it. If they had started out by sticking to the contractual terms from day one we would never have had to come up with an acronym for NBFIs
You are not “limiting withdrawals” if you don’t pay out more than the threshold you established. If retail clients thought they were in a liquid vehicle this is a marketing issue.
Who's this idiot
bsky.app/profile/dsqu...
Really looks like Dorsey was way out of the curve in terms of "unwind previous over expansion and blame it on AI", the SaaS way of never having to admit you got it wrong
Also diversification of human capital. Oil types think oil is really important, macro types think it's one factor among many and nothing like as important as it used to be
I once convinced one of my daughters that Taylor Swift had recorded an album called "Grievances and Minor Slights"
Please please please say "doing enough", spending money is just the wrong way to think about this
Someone comes along every time I do this joke to tell me that it's a different Springer with no connection between the companies but I'm going to keep on doing it
Don't know why, I picked up a copy of the Telegraph in TG Jones today, this was the headline and it costs 300 quid
How will he eat? Does his wife have a well paying job?
There is a minor political project of trying to pretend that the age factor in British politics is something to do with "young people" digital natives and smartphone generations, rather than the facts of "everybody under retirement age".
"home secretary, have you considered that the liberals might concentrate on the crying children in handcuffs and the ethnonationalists might concentrate on the £40,000 handouts rather than vice versa?"
A noticeable share of the top of our decision-makers population developed visible physical aggro tendencies and some wild risk taking tendencies at the same time as they developed bodybuilding physiques, that's a weird coincidence, and I have no further questions
The one who doesn't have the same first name as Paul McCartney!
tbh when I heard that they had arrested someone in Pontypridd I immediately came up with a much more convincing scenario for Chinese intelligence to be interested in than the actual truth
I'm not being prescriptive about that bit
"you can't spend years insulting liberals and pandering to right-wing idiocy then expect progressive voters to support you - please subscribe to the new statesman!"
(and obviously less so in the original question, I contain multitudes