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Sam Lair

@slair

Research Associate at CNS | Fellow at FPRI | MIIS NPTS '24 | RTs/views my own etc. Also @sam_lair on Twitter

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06.08.2023
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Latest posts by Sam Lair @slair

More damage at Garmdareh

Lots of support buildings hit, with some big explosions. More scorch marks indicative of TEL plinking.

Thanks to our friends @planet.com for the images.

06.03.2026 23:58 ๐Ÿ‘ 6 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 2

More damage to Shiraz west

Two tunnel entrances attacked, covers destroyed.
Additional support buildings destroyed as well.

Thanks to our friends @planet.com for the images.

06.03.2026 23:21 ๐Ÿ‘ 5 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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Lar missile base struck

Ejecta from targeted tunnel entrances visible. Many support buildings damaged or destroyed. Scorch marks in the roads are further evidence the TEL plinking campaign continues

Thanks to our friends @planet for the imagery!

06.03.2026 22:29 ๐Ÿ‘ 4 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Worth noting that according to that DEFA article citing a biography of Tehrani Moghaddam, the silo project was conducted by the commander of the IRGC-AF Engineering Department, Ali Hajizadeh

06.03.2026 21:58 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Other aboveground infrastructure for mobile launchers at the base was hit as well. Checkout buildings and more tunnel entrances targeted.

This base got a lot of bunker buster attention.

06.03.2026 21:52 ๐Ÿ‘ 7 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Wondering why Iran didn't build more silos? There are many reasons, but one is silos are much more technically complex than people often believe. Here is an Iranian article discussing the difficulties they had in making their first silos: dnws.ir/003CCU

06.03.2026 21:52 ๐Ÿ‘ 8 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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First, Jam is one of the few Iranian missile bases with silos. The tunnel entrances to those silos have been destroyed, thought the portals themselves are still open. Doesn't preclude them being damaged, I just can't see it.

More craters on roads too. More TEL plinking?

06.03.2026 21:52 ๐Ÿ‘ 6 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Our friends @planet.com got an excellent image of the missile base at Jam

Lots of damage across the site, but a few things are worth looking at closer

06.03.2026 21:52 ๐Ÿ‘ 8 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

We are watching in real time the destruction of Iranian ballistic missile capabilities. Two things can be true at the same time. This remains an incredibly challenging thing for pilots to do. It is also being done incredibly well.

06.03.2026 20:52 ๐Ÿ‘ 10 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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The explosions tell only part of the story. The real contest in this war is unfolding in missile factories, command rooms, and underground tunnels. (Members Only)

Listen here: warontherocks.com/pr...

06.03.2026 21:00 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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A before photo of the site with the possible S-300 launcher:

06.03.2026 19:12 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

One of the Iranian air defense sites where I spotted S-300 launchers before the war was hit hard.

Emplacements for radars and SAM launchers were struck, and many support buildings destroyed.

Thanks to our friends at Planet Labs for the imagery.

06.03.2026 19:12 ๐Ÿ‘ 13 ๐Ÿ” 4 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Before photo of the air defense site:

06.03.2026 18:44 ๐Ÿ‘ 4 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Shortly before the war I looked at Iranian air defenses & found some weird bedfellows at the former S-300 site in Isfahan: A SA-5 & an Iranian domestic SAM launcher.

I joked about not wanting to find out how well this jank-AD integration would be. Well, we did find out. The answer: not well at all.

06.03.2026 18:44 ๐Ÿ‘ 14 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Yazd missile base hit

Tunnel entrances targeted. Support buildings destroyed. Craters along the road suggest efforts at TEL plinking, but its hard to say whether they were successful.

Thanks as always to our friends at Planet Labs

06.03.2026 18:17 ๐Ÿ‘ 10 ๐Ÿ” 3 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

Khorgu was hit again. This time it looks like the tunnel entrances were targeted.

Unclear whether ground-penetrating munitions were used, but the site is certainly more damaged now. Evidence of TEL plinking as well from scorch marks.

Thanks to our friends at Planet Labs for the images

06.03.2026 18:10 ๐Ÿ‘ 14 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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This site produces solid propellant motors and performs final assembly for many Iranian solid propellant missiles. The IDF has also claimed the site produces missile guidance and electronics.

06.03.2026 18:07 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Better images of the Shahid Bakeri solid propellant plant show extensive damage.

Thanks to our friends at Planet Labs for the imagery.

06.03.2026 18:07 ๐Ÿ‘ 17 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

More damage at Khojir

The new solid propellant production line to the east was extensively damaged. Buildings housing planetary mixers and casting buildings were destroyed. A large number of uncertain function buildings hit too

Thanks to our friends at Planet Labs for the imagery

06.03.2026 18:06 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

More TEL plinking at Isfahan north

At least two more launchers caught out. One spilled propellant along a field, and the other left a large scorch mark on an interior road in the base.

Thanks to our friends at Planet Labs for the imagery.

06.03.2026 17:59 ๐Ÿ‘ 21 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Missile base at Bid Kaneh hit

Tunnel entrances appeared to have been hit with bunker busters. Support and checkout buildings destroyed as well. Scattered craters suggest some TEL plinking happening too.

Thanks to our friends at Planet Labs for the imagery.

06.03.2026 17:56 ๐Ÿ‘ 7 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Again, only one Arrow-3 launch over the night of March 5, this time from Tel Aviv.

Brings the total Arrow-3s recorded since the war started to 16. That is still below the number used during the first night of the 12-Day War alone

06.03.2026 05:46 ๐Ÿ‘ 62 ๐Ÿ” 10 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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Full video here

06.03.2026 05:45 ๐Ÿ‘ 7 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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More remarkable shots of the Iranian cluster munitions warhead courtesy of Zaid M. Al-Abbadi

06.03.2026 05:45 ๐Ÿ‘ 14 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 2
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FPRI Experts React | Understanding the Third Gulf War - Foreign Policy Research Institute The third Gulf War began with an assassination on February 28, 2026, in broad daylight in central Iran. The war has engulfed the region in conflict, extending

Experts from the @fpri.bsky.social analyze the latest military developments from the Third Gulf War

@slair.bsky.social @dexeve.bsky.social @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social @salisbot.bsky.social & Guy Plopsky

www.fpri.org/article/2026...

05.03.2026 22:06 ๐Ÿ‘ 7 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 2
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Full video here, thanks to the phenomenal Zaid M. Al-Abbadi

04.03.2026 16:27 ๐Ÿ‘ 4 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

A large aperture solid-state phased array radar was not built to crush resistance movements relying on guerilla tactics and poor equipment

04.03.2026 05:45 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Shahid Cheragi is where those fuel tanks seen at Iranian liquid propellant bases are filled. Here is a photo from before the 12-Day War of the site.

04.03.2026 00:27 ๐Ÿ‘ 7 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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The Khojir complex run by Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group was hit

Shahid Cheragi industries, which makes nitric acid, oxidizer for Iranian liquid fueled missiles was struck, along with the older solid propellant motor production facility.

Thanks again to our friends @planet.com

04.03.2026 00:27 ๐Ÿ‘ 20 ๐Ÿ” 7 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 2
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Tabriz south missile base struck

Recently built radome and support buildings destroyed, and tunnel entrances damaged. Lots of craters along the roads as well.

Thanks to our friends @planet.com for the images

03.03.2026 23:58 ๐Ÿ‘ 10 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0