In case people are salivating over the idiotic tariff formula for research papers, @jakejares.bsky.social and I took advantage of another simplistic formula for the 2018 farm bailout: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
I wonder if in the future universities should raise these funds as insurance when the interest rate environment is much better. Stanford got a steal on bond issuances (like 1%-2% or something) a few years ago. I bet these are probably 6-7% or something?
Only about 35% of UAW members work in the auto industry. Only about 25% work for the two US auto manufacturers (GM and Ford).
Can you send me an email?
We are hiring a pre-doc at Stanford to work on (among other things) a project called Public Pulse, which will provide reports on public opinion in the US, and potentially fill the void of things like 538. Please share with your undergrads. iriss.stanford.edu/predoc/2025-...
It is quite a shame. Most of Tesla is owned by schoolteachers, janitors, nurses, government employees, etc. Further, given the poor performance of GM/Ford/Lucid/Rivian (and the disinterest of Toyota), this was a good bet for an electric car future (particularly since current gvnt won't invest)
Although it is true that if the Dems did not have knife-edge wins in Georgia, Nevada, and Michigan, this would look a lot worse. I agree that if you just look at the presidential vote share, it does have an R bias, but maybe that is just a Trump thing.
Yeah, this is too long for social media, but there are LOTS of flaws with that blog post. The Senate's malapportionment has massive demographic biases, but the partisan biases are probably not as big as people make them out to be, mainly due to recent pop declines in blue states.
If you look at the last 3 Senate elections that produce the current body (2020, 2022, 2024), it looks like GOP has slight majority of votes, so 53-47 doesn't seem that out of line with a seats-vote curve. Very complex because of general equil, uncontested seats, etc.
My favorite discontinued products are: (1) Jello 1-2-3; (2) Nestle Alpine White chocolate bar. I would pay a lot of money for those.
If this is actually true, it is insane. It means that the value of X/Twitter has not dropped one penny since Musk bought it in 2022. It means that market is signaling the monetary value of Musk's relationship to the most powerful person on Earth. techcrunch.com/2025/02/19/x...
Well, the costs also fell, and I think the revenue fall has to do with its moderation policies, not its headcount. Meta stock price skyrocketed after the layoffs and they didn't see advertisers leave. Basically, Elon overpaid for a bad business, but it was bad before Elon bought it.
It's pretty amazing that this is a fairly extreme Cabinet and there will be only one failure (Gaetz). In comparison, Obama (2008) had three failures of moderate normies: Tom Daschle, Bill Richardson, Judd Gregg
Great paper. Seems in line with this other paper on the "subversion dilemma": aletheia-platform.netlify.app/publication/...
This is one of the most electorally skilled politicians in the D Party. Interesting messaging that I think would resonate well outside of Bluesky. People don't care about USAID, impoundment, etc. But Americans wanted a strong leader, who now seems weak because he doesn't have his team under control.
They are drawing the wrong lessons from X/Twitter. The story of Twitter (which Meta and SV generally copied) is that you can fire 90% of the low interest rate workforce and the product basically works. That doesn't apply to fed gvnt.
GOP presidents take different (legal) actions to control the executive branch, not because they have stronger will, but because they face a more acute problem of control. The agency loss for a GOP president is larger than for Dem presidents, and the difference is growing.
In the 1990s, three African American women won Album of the Year: Natalie Cole, Whitney Houston, and Lauryn Hill. This is the first since 1999.
"I hereby pardon Elon Musk for all and any crimes that could have been committed from 2005 to the present" (Dec. 2028)
I am asking a literal question of what it means to "cut off federal tax payments." I'm sure there are ways for "states to react" but I have no clue what "cut off federal tax payments" means.
I have no clue what that means. The state of California doesn't send a check or tax payment to the federal government. Wealthy CA taxpayers individually contribute to federal tax receipts. Are you suggesting that Newsom convince residents to risk prison and not pay their federal taxes?
I wrote this paper a few years ago on how direct flight availability affects Congressional careers. Potentially relevant today in that Congress has a authority over DCA airport, and it's fairly well known they push for lots of flights in and out of it. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
I actually think Ds don't have structural problems (but maybe I'm in minority). Counterfactual question: If Trump was killed, who would have won the election? I think the Dem candidate (may have been Biden), because Trump is just such a unique rock star in that party.
You might also be interested in reading the work of Andrew Noymer. He is a Covid hawk and very pro lockdown. He believes in lab leak, and thinks that Fauci purposely started calling for the end of lockdowns once the "gain of function" emails were released.
You could also reverse your question on the flipside. Why were the Covid hawks so insistent that Covid did not come from a lab? Somehow criticizing a research program funded by white scientists is "racist" but saying that it came from a market is "not racist"?
This is just a conjecture, but I think the main issue is that it called into question the labeling of things as "misinformation" (also see Hunter Biden laptop). Basically, you have a set of elite, powerful institutions that label things as "false" but then it looks really bad when they're not false.
I think the main issue is that it called into question the labeling of things as "misinformation" (also see Hunter Biden laptop).
It will be interesting if: (1) who will refer to it as the "Gulf of America"; (2) who will say there are 28 amendments to the Constitution (Wikipedia currently holding out). You have way more questions for bright line watch than survey space!
Sorry meant, "outside of academia/media"
I don't think it just the tech billionaires. I am really interested in your thoughts on this, since most center-left people outside of academia/tech aren't buying Trump as a threat to democracy. When I ask them, they say "People of color moved against us. We need to listen."
