Marylou Athanase

The need for multi‐method extreme event attribution Over the past 20 years, extreme event attribution has developed rapidly, providing a wide range of methods to attribute weather events – from unconditioned probabilistic to strongly conditioned story...

☀️🌧️ Extreme weather events are increasing 🌀🌤
Our new paper discusses the range of extreme weather attribution methods available and how we should be combining them to improve confidence in our attribution statements

with co-authors: @marylouathanase.bsky.social & Shirin Ermis
doi.org/10.1002/wea....

And the data displayed was prepared by our colleagues @amaljohn.bsky.social and @sbeyer.net — many thanks!

If you want to learn more about Storylines of Marine Heatwaves, my #OOSC presentation starts today at 16h30 🌊

To celebrate the kick-off of #UNOC3 and #OOSC in Nice, we share a striking, mesmerising perspective on Mediterranean Marine Heatwaves —and their clear amplification by climate change.

From @awi.de storyline simulations, visual by @jawijan.bsky.social

So it begins.

Day 1 (of 2) of traveling to #OOSC & #UNOC3 in Nice by train, all the way from Northern Germany 🚝
Looking forward to meet some of you there!

Storylines reveal contrasting thermodynamic effects of climate change on 2020/21 East Asian cold extremes - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science npj Climate and Atmospheric Science - Storylines reveal contrasting thermodynamic effects of climate change on 2020/21 East Asian cold extremes

A little belated post to share the latest article by Wenqin Zhuo together with our @awi.de team of "storyliners"!

This time investigating cold extremes. Read in @natureportfolio.nature.com:

doi.org/10.1038/s416...

The Arctic Beaufort Gyre in CMIP6 Models: Present and Future CMIP6 models generally simulate a too strong, large, and northward-extending Beaufort Gyre (BG) during the historical period Among the least unrealistic models, most simulations project a decline...

And of course, direct link to the paper:
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

The Uncertain Fate of the Beaufort Gyre - Eos Climate models produce widely varying predictions for what will happen to this influential ocean current, but most models predict it will weaken or stop.

Our paper on the Arctic Beaufort Gyre in CMIP6 is featured in a spotlight article 🌊

*And* it is now #9 largest score on @altmetric.com of all @jgroceans.bsky.social articles... What a week

Read on @eos.org:
eos.org/research-spo...

W/ @raphaelkoehler.bsky.social and @clnhz.bsky.social

⬆️New research by @marylouathanase.bsky.social & @raphaelkoehler.bsky.social of @awi.de, @clnhz.bsky.social, + colleagues in @jgroceans.bsky.social.

The Uncertain Fate of the Beaufort Gyre - Eos Climate models produce widely varying predictions for what will happen to this influential ocean current, but most models predict it will weaken or stop.

Climate models offer little clarity on how climate change will affect the Beaufort Gyre, an influential current in the Arctic Ocean. Most predict the current will weaken or even stop, but the timing and impacts of this fate remain uncertain. eos.org/research-spo...

La fonte de la banquise change la couleur des océans Arctique et Antarctique En l’absence d’une couche de glace à la surface de l’océan, la lumière qui pénètre les eaux n’est plus la même, ce qui influence le type d’algue et de plancton s’y développant. Une étude publiée dans ...

C’est l’un des nombreux bouleversements entraînés par la disparition de la banquise : elle change la couleur des océans Arctique et Antarctique. De quoi entraîner des conséquences « considérables » pour certains organismes marins comme les algues et le phytoplancton www.lemonde.fr/planete/arti...

Starting at 12:45 at #EGU25

Bring your lunch!

Coming up soon at #EGU25, come along to chat about event attribution at lunchtime in room 2.43

Une nouvelle étude intéressante et qui va au-delà des effets d'annonce.
Le nombre de papier devient conséquent sur le rôle de la variabilité interne.
J’ai pu l’expliquer sur @franceculture.fr merci à @alexandremorales.bsky.social

www.radiofrance.fr/francecultur...

I will be presenting our results at #EGU25 in a poster on Wednesday. 🌀 So if you'd like to chat about the Arctic Beaufort Gyre in CMIP6 models, find me there!

The poster: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/EGU25-...

The paper: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

Leaflet of the EGU25 splinter meeting. Title: Networking session: comparing methods for extreme event attribution. Illustrations: plots from various attribution methods. Time and location: Friday 02.05, 12h45-13h45, room 2.43.

If you are attending #EGU25 and interested in the attribution of #climate extremes: consider joining our networking session on Friday noon!

We will exchange on existing methods, their strengths, and how to compare them:
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio...

W/ @vikkithompson.bsky.social

Poster, text: Networking Session: Comparing methods for extreme event attribution. Conveners: Vikki Thompson, Shirin Ermis, and Marylou Athanase. EGU General Assembly 2025. Friday 12.45-13.45 in room 2.43. Three images of extreme event attribution techniques. QR code links to https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/session/55165

Are you interested in extreme event attribution and attending #EGU25? Come along to our networking session to discuss the strengths and challenges of different methods.

meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio...

@marylouathanase.bsky.social

Multi-year simulations at kilometre scale with the Integrated Forecasting System coupled to FESOM2.5 and NEMOv3.4 Abstract. We report on the first multi-year kilometre-scale global coupled simulations using ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) coupled to both the NEMO and FESOM ocean–sea ice models, as par...

Our article is out in @eurogeosciences.bsky.social's GMD journal, on global multi-year kilometre-scale modelling with @ecmwf.bsky.social’s IFS coupled to FESOM2.5 (finer than 5km).

See the paper here: doi.org/10.5194/gmd-...

This is what we found: (🧵1/n)

Research article: The Arctic Beaufort Gyre in CMIP6 Models: Present and Future

🆕 from PolarRES' @raphaelkoehler.bsky.social & colleagues on the future of the Beaufort Gyre, a major Arctic Ocean current.

By accumulating/releasing freshwater, it shapes ocean properties.

But most CMIP6 models project it will weaken or vanish, disrupting ocean circulation.

🔗: bit.ly/4cdZo3m

The Arctic Beaufort Gyre in CMIP6 Models: Present and Future CMIP6 models generally simulate a too strong, large, and northward-extending Beaufort Gyre (BG) during the historical period Among the least unrealistic models, most simulations project a decline...

New study led by @marylouathanase.bsky.social and @raphaelkoehler.bsky.social.
As #SeaIce thins, the Beaufort Gyre releases its feshwater out of the #Arctic.
We don't predict the "Day After Tomorrow" but I'm curious about potential impacts on the #AMOC
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

Marylou Athanase (@marylou_athanase@mas.to) 0 Posts, 4 Following, 6 Followers · Polar and Climate Scientist, 🇨🇵 national living in 🇩🇪

Fantastic to see this by @marylou_athanase @raphaelkoehler.bsky.social @clnhz.bsky.social et al out - an @PolarRES inspired project started at our very first bootcamp with @clicwcrp.bsky.social #NORP way back in 2022 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2024JC021873

This study was jointly led with my @awi.de colleague Raphael Köhler, with @clnhz.bsky.social at the University of Gothenburg, and others.

The Arctic Beaufort Gyre in CMIP6 Models: Present and Future CMIP6 models generally simulate a too strong, large, and northward-extending Beaufort Gyre (BG) during the historical period Among the least unrealistic models, most simulations project a decline...

Our new study is out:

The Arctic Beaufort Gyre is projected to weaken or vanish in most CMIP6 models under future climate change.

The gyre would thus stop storing freshwater in its centre, with possibly large impacts on the Arctic and beyond.

Read: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

Poster, text: Networking Session: Comparing methods for extreme event attribution. Conveners: Vikki Thompson, Shirin Ermis, and Marylou Athanase. EGU General Assembly 2025. Friday 12.45-13.45 in room 2.43. Three images of extreme event attribution techniques. QR code links to https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/session/55165

Planning your #EGU25 travel? If you're interested in extreme event attribution, make sure to stay until Friday to come along to our networking session to discuss the value of multiple methods. @marylouathanase.bsky.social

NOAA firings hit the birthplace of weather and climate forecasting Dismissed researchers were improving severe weather predictions

This is really sad news. NOAA GFDL is one of the world's leading climate modeling centers, home to exceptional scientists. If anyone directly affected needs support, I’m happy to help. www.science.org/content/arti...

Maine Sea Grant funding terminated as Trump administration makes cuts to NOAA The move to discontinue the $4.5 million grant program leaves 20 employees and the Sea Grant’s programming in limbo.

This is absolutely devastating.

"The University of Maine System, which oversees Maine Sea Grant, said it was notified Friday night that NOAA was terminating a four-year agreement for funding, leaving 20 employees and the Sea Grant’s programming in limbo." www.pressherald.com/2025/03/01/m...

NOAA firings hit the birthplace of weather and climate forecasting Dismissed researchers were improving severe weather predictions

Hi - I'd like to share this story of what is happening at NOAA GFDL, where some of my colleagues and I worked until the mass firings at NOAA last week.

"...the birthplace of weather and climate forecasting"

Climate change and terrigenous inputs decrease the efficiency of the future Arctic Ocean’s biological carbon pump - Nature Climate Change Changes in the Arctic could impact the oceanic carbon sequestration of the region. Here the authors consider regional biogeochemistry, including coastal erosion and river inputs, to show a 40% reducti...

Massive piece of work by Laurent Oziel and many #AWI colleagues, conducted within the #COMFORT project:

Laurent conducted future 🌊 Arctic Ocean high-resolution simulations that account for climate change AND carbon & nutrient inputs from rivers & coastal erosion.

⬇️

doi.org/10.1038/s415...

#EGU25 Call for Abstracts open:

Are you working on understanding high-risk climate extremes and their impacts? Then join our session!

🔵 High-impact climate extremes: from physical understanding and storylines to impacts and solutions

🎯Session: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio...
🧪

Arctic tundra becoming source of carbon dioxide emissions 2024 Arctic Report Card tracks rapid, complex Arctic change

www.noaa.gov/news-release...