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Joni Askola

@joniaskola

Finnish PhD candidate and geopolitical analyst. Trying to help Ukraine with the 69th Sniffing Brigade https://buymeacoffee.com/joni_askola

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Latest posts by Joni Askola @joniaskola

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Just like Witkoff coached Putin’s team

07.03.2026 14:15 πŸ‘ 19 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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If Europe is not careful, we are going to end up exactly like the US.

A system where a tiny group of tech oligarchs buy elections and dictate policy is not a functioning democracy.

We cannot let extreme wealth concentration destroy our political system

07.03.2026 14:03 πŸ‘ 32 πŸ” 10 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 0
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The Russian economy was under severe strain until this new war started.

Seeing an ally like Iran dismantled hurts Russia long term, but Putin only cares about today.

Skyrocketing oil prices are giving him the financial lifeline he desperately needs right now

07.03.2026 14:00 πŸ‘ 13 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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I truly hope Trump has a master plan for this war in Iran.

Right now, the main winner is Putin.

Skyrocketing oil prices are a massive gift to Moscow and exactly what the Russian war machine needed to survive

07.03.2026 13:38 πŸ‘ 36 πŸ” 12 πŸ’¬ 7 πŸ“Œ 2
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12/12 Ultimately, Khamenei being gone is a win for humanity.

But we have to hope this war does not drag on and keep oil prices high for a long time.

That scenario directly benefits Russia the most, and Russia remains an actual enemy of global stability and humanity

07.03.2026 13:29 πŸ‘ 18 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0
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11/12 For Ukraine and Europe, this is also a mixed bag.

US interceptors are being diverted, and high oil prices are funding the Russian war machine.

Upsides include that an evil regime is weakened, and Trump might temporarily focus less on pressuring Kyiv

07.03.2026 13:29 πŸ‘ 18 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1
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10/12 Russia loses a partner, but they do not need Iran much right now.

What Moscow desperately needed was cash for its economy, and the spike in global oil prices comes at the perfect time.

The longer this lasts, the less the loss of an ally hurts Putin long-term

07.03.2026 13:29 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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9/12 China faces a mixed bag.

They lose a key partner and look weak for failing to help.

But a distracted and overstretched US opens up major opportunities elsewhere.

Also, this aggressive US war makes it harder for the West to credibly condemn Chinese imperialism

07.03.2026 13:29 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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8/12 For Iran's proxies across the region, this is obviously horrible news.

They will continue to grow weaker in the short and medium term as their primary sources of funding and weapons are systematically dismantled

07.03.2026 13:29 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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7/12 Saudi Arabia likely views this like Israel does.

Iran is a primary enemy.

Complete regime change is ideal, but a weakened Iran is also a great outcome.

A prolonged war would impact their economy, but overall this situation suits the Saudis perfectly

07.03.2026 13:29 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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6/12 This is a nightmare for the Iranian regime.

But if they somehow survive the strikes, the aftermath will be interesting.

The true victims are the Iranian people.

War is always terrible, and Trump is not known for building actual democracies in countries the US attacks

07.03.2026 13:29 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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5/12 The US benefits but faces the massive risk of overstretch.

Getting bogged down in the Middle East leaves areas like the Pacific vulnerable to China.

For Trump, high oil prices and a long war are terrible for the midterms, making this a highly risky gamble

07.03.2026 13:29 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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4/12 Israel benefits in almost every scenario.

If the regime falls, Israel eliminates a powerful regional enemy.

If it survives, Iran is still severely weakened.

Israel has no ambitions far from home, so it does not have to worry about being overstretched globally

07.03.2026 13:29 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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3/12 Military success does not guarantee strategic victory.

The US could defeat Iran militarily and still fail to achieve regime change.

It is too early to predict the final outcome, but we can already identify the likely winners and losers

07.03.2026 13:29 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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2/12 The US and Israel launched this war a week ago, though the US refuses to even call it a war.

Militarily, it is a success so far.

Khamenei and key leaders are dead with minimal allied losses.

The only partial US failure has been protecting its regional bases

07.03.2026 13:29 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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1/12 Exactly one week into the war in Iran, the initial shock of massive strikes and chaos is beginning to settle.

Now, it is time to take a step back and ask the most important question:

Depending on how this plays out, who truly benefits, and who doesn't?

07.03.2026 13:29 πŸ‘ 23 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0
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This will not sit well with the families of deceased American soldiers

07.03.2026 11:06 πŸ‘ 75 πŸ” 23 πŸ’¬ 8 πŸ“Œ 1
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Today’s white supremacist lie post by Musk

07.03.2026 10:59 πŸ‘ 61 πŸ” 16 πŸ’¬ 11 πŸ“Œ 4
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Important people

07.03.2026 10:52 πŸ‘ 33 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
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It might take longer, but it is not an impossible scenario

07.03.2026 10:50 πŸ‘ 45 πŸ” 8 πŸ’¬ 9 πŸ“Œ 0
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A sense of urgency that was never shown for Ukraine, even though it faces a far more existential threat and a greater need for assistance

07.03.2026 10:44 πŸ‘ 64 πŸ” 22 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 1
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It is crucial for Ukraine and the EU to exercise patience and avoid falling into Orban’s escalation traps ahead of the election.

His propaganda should not be given any oxygen.

Any necessary measures can be taken after the elections

07.03.2026 10:38 πŸ‘ 64 πŸ” 14 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
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It was sadly never about democracy for Trump

07.03.2026 10:33 πŸ‘ 91 πŸ” 21 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
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A third US aircraft carrier heading to the Middle East means the Iran war is not going to be a quick victory for Trump.

The US is going all in.

Sadly, the strain on American military resources provides China and other adversaries of the West with opportunities

07.03.2026 10:26 πŸ‘ 64 πŸ” 21 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 1
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The war in Iran exposes a massive Western double standard.

Ukraine has faced Russian missiles and Iranian shaheds for years without adequate air defense or help striking inside Russia.

Yet when it comes to Iran, the West is willing to unleash total war overnight

07.03.2026 10:08 πŸ‘ 93 πŸ” 25 πŸ’¬ 8 πŸ“Œ 1
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Throughout Trump’s two terms, he has remained consistently loyal and supportive of only a select few, including Russia, Israel, and initiatives that benefited his family financially while he was in office

07.03.2026 09:27 πŸ‘ 57 πŸ” 12 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Well done Sweden

07.03.2026 09:25 πŸ‘ 109 πŸ” 21 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
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DEI under Trump

07.03.2026 09:24 πŸ‘ 54 πŸ” 14 πŸ’¬ 7 πŸ“Œ 0
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PΓ©ter Magyar is an opportunist, and quite a large part of Hungarian voters are traitorous idiots, but his winning would still benefit the world.

OrbΓ‘n has centralized way too much power, and he does far more harm than Magyar ever could

07.03.2026 08:39 πŸ‘ 63 πŸ” 10 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 0
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I wouldn’t be surprised if Vance ran with Gabbard as his VP in 2028.

That would be the most traitorous duo in the history of the United States

07.03.2026 08:36 πŸ‘ 57 πŸ” 12 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 1