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Tim Bale

@timbale

Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London & author of The Conservative Party after Brexit: Turmoil and Transformation (now out in paperback). The bits and pieces I do for websites and newspapers turn up eventually at https://proftimbale.com

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Latest posts by Tim Bale @timbale

How did they get copyright clearance from all the studios? If they did, that’s almost more worrying than if they didn’t and went ahead anyway.

06.03.2026 18:52 👍 72 🔁 28 💬 13 📌 0

They didn't. Ben Stiller has told them to remove the bit featuring him.

06.03.2026 20:17 👍 17 🔁 4 💬 1 📌 0

“people familiar with the latter”

06.03.2026 20:09 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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I couldn't resist buying the Spectator for these two columns. Pure comedy gold. View it as a public service.

06.03.2026 12:25 👍 95 🔁 21 💬 35 📌 15

How did they get copyright clearance from all the studios? If they did, that’s almost more worrying than if they didn’t and went ahead anyway.

06.03.2026 18:52 👍 72 🔁 28 💬 13 📌 0

May well be enough but depends on how closely their sample resembles the whole.

06.03.2026 16:55 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
Chart showing 84% of Conservative members think Badenoch should lead the party into the next election.

Chart showing 84% of Conservative members think Badenoch should lead the party into the next election.

This (from ConHome's reader-member survey) is really remarkable when you think about it: a triumph of vibes over rationality? The Tory Party' has at best stood still and at worst gone backwards compared to where it was when she took over - and it still languishes at under 20% in most polls. And yet:

06.03.2026 16:46 👍 16 🔁 5 💬 5 📌 0

Why Publishers Slap "& How To Fix It" On Every Non-Fiction Title... & How To Fix It (RRP £49.99)

06.03.2026 16:23 👍 15 🔁 4 💬 2 📌 0

This is definitely worth a read. The electoral implications of two deprivations: "In the parts of the country where you can get a good job, you can’t get a good house; in the parts of the country where you can get a good house, you can’t get a good job."

06.03.2026 11:22 👍 10 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 0
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What the polls say about Trump's war against Iran And why a Talarico-Paxton matchup in Texas might just be a tossup

This was good on how the war is actually very unpopular and there's been some very bad polling questions hiding that www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-the-p...

06.03.2026 11:25 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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The Two Deprivations Are poorer constituencies going green of turquoise?

The Two Deprivations
open.substack.com/pub/parables...

06.03.2026 09:14 👍 34 🔁 12 💬 2 📌 3

I've yet to meet a single supporter of grammar schools who imagines their own kids going to a secondary modern - and it's the first question I ask. What if they fail the 11-plus? "Oh, if that happened, we'd go down the fee-paying route."

06.03.2026 08:53 👍 27 🔁 6 💬 4 📌 0
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Labour resists shift on student migration despite Green pressure Calls to loosen restrictions on international students in wake of shock defeat to left-wing party in by-election may go unheard without leadership change, say experts

By @helenpacker.bsky.social in the @timeshighered.bsky.social

06.03.2026 09:09 👍 9 🔁 4 💬 2 📌 1

Cool. The policy that made my dad feel second-rate for the rest of his life, regardless of his achievements. In the name of the ordinary people.

06.03.2026 07:18 👍 83 🔁 21 💬 5 📌 1

Quite often I feel compelled to explain why law matters even if it isn't functioning in a present scenario: this does a handy job of articulating why it's still always important to keep it as an aspirational moral framework.

06.03.2026 07:23 👍 14 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0

These headlines should always read “New secondary moderns set to return”, since that’s where most kids will go under that system.

06.03.2026 07:26 👍 186 🔁 56 💬 11 📌 0

'The Good Old Days' strike again.

open.substack.com/pub/rolandmc...

06.03.2026 06:46 👍 44 🔁 8 💬 2 📌 1
Graph showing decline in healthy life expectancy in the UK.

Graph showing decline in healthy life expectancy in the UK.

Crikey. Read this (www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...) for more detail

06.03.2026 07:09 👍 42 🔁 16 💬 9 📌 5

My kid is at one, there is no meritocracy to get in; it’s either ambitious second/third generation immigrants kids, or middle class parents prepared to spend £3/4k on tutors, as it’s a ton cheaper then going privates

06.03.2026 06:59 👍 15 🔁 5 💬 4 📌 0
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The US and Israel are waging war on an Iran they think they know. The reality is very different | Ali Vaez Is the Islamic Republic a messianic theocracy or a brittle dictatorship? It’s neither – as those attacking it are finding out, says Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group

"Even many Iranians who oppose the regime and wanted foreign military intervention to topple it are reluctant to see the state collapse entirely, fearing the chaos that might follow. There is a difference between wanting the system to change and wanting the country to break."

06.03.2026 07:02 👍 49 🔁 17 💬 2 📌 1

This feels timely, especially after listening to the latest 'Not Another One', where @steverichards.bsky.social was gamely defending the idea of international law against people who should know better

06.03.2026 06:41 👍 13 🔁 4 💬 0 📌 0
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ICO writes to Meta over 'concerning' AI smart glasses report Videos, including of glasses-wearers using the toilet or having sex, are sometimes reviewed by a Kenya-based subcontractor.

Last year when I was checking into a hotel, the desk person was wearing Meta glasses. I kindly asked them to take them off. They were annoyed. I said, “I do not consent to you looking at my credit card and ID with Meta glasses on.” My instincts were correct: www.bbc.com/news/article...

05.03.2026 15:27 👍 5930 🔁 2381 💬 90 📌 182
Graph showing how support for the war varies with partisanship.

Graph showing how support for the war varies with partisanship.

"Before he was elected, he promised that the US would not get involved in any more wars in the middle east. It appears that most Republicans and nearly all the Maga supporters are quite willing to go along with the U-turn and agree with anything he does." Source: theconversation.com/what-america...

06.03.2026 06:43 👍 27 🔁 8 💬 3 📌 1

This just keeps on coming back around forever doesn't it (and then we have to point out all the issues with grammars yet again) - selecting by "ability" often means selecting by wealth, and outcomes are worse for the kids outside of grammars - we should care about them too.

05.03.2026 19:53 👍 72 🔁 20 💬 7 📌 1
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In defence of hand-wringers and pearl-clutchers To surrender the fight for international law is to accept worse outcomes and more civilian deaths

Three cheers for @robertshrimsley.bsky.social. Am reading and listening to too many self-styled fans of liberal democracy saying, in effect, 'let's park international law for the moment and talk about....'

06.03.2026 06:32 👍 116 🔁 36 💬 2 📌 4

And so the zombie policy re-emerges for yet another sequel…

05.03.2026 18:48 👍 32 🔁 9 💬 3 📌 0

Alt headline: Secondary Moderns set to return if Farage elected

05.03.2026 18:16 👍 39 🔁 7 💬 4 📌 0
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New grammar schools set to return if Farage becomes PM The creation of new selective schools was outlawed by New Labour in 1998

Crushingly predictable. Utterly unjustified by decades of research. A shibboleth in place of a policy.

05.03.2026 18:14 👍 282 🔁 65 💬 23 📌 33
No matter the issue, Trump has lost support since he took over.

No matter the issue, Trump has lost support since he took over.

Trump's (dis)approval ratings - prior to Iran (c/o @economist.com: www.economist.com/interactive/...)

05.03.2026 17:32 👍 4 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

What I will never understand is....Twitter was *never* a good gauge of public opinion! I genuinely cannot understand the people who have clearly been using it as a measure of something other than 'internal leadership contests' (where it was genuinely useful' or 'ways to discover cool links'.

05.03.2026 17:19 👍 490 🔁 101 💬 26 📌 4