Anton Falco

Hamilton's February 2026 Climatology vs Observed: Below Average Temperatures, Some Frigid Nights & A Break From Snowfall Comparing weather normals vs daily readings from Hamilton airport (YHM) and brief reports on weather related events across the world.

Hamilton (YHM) February Summary:
-Below average high & low temperatures.
-Some frigid nights.
-Below average monthly snowfall & rainfall.

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Hamilton's January 2026 Climatology vs Observed: Frigid Temperatures & Tons Of Lake Effect Snow For The Greater Toronto Area Comparing weather normals vs daily readings from Hamilton airport (YHM) and brief reports on weather related events across the world.

Hamilton (YHM) January Summary:
-Below average high & low temperatures
-Below average monthly snowfall.
-Major Toronto lake effect snow event

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Analysis Of Toronto's Lake Effect Snow Event Of January 25th. Upwards Of 60cm Downtown Before we get into the analysis, if you want a more in depth breakdown on the meteorology of how lake effect snow forms, follow this link. It will give you the expected parameter breakdowns and condit...

I discuss the Lake Effect snow event of January 25th that impacted the west side of Lake Ontario: Toronto, Oakville and Burlington.

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Synoptic snow is largely coming to end across S ON. Scarborough/Toronto are mercifully out of the ripper band as the wind shift will send it further south. Oakville is in the heaviest part now, but Burlington, Hamilton and areas east of there may get some of it before tomorrow.

Arctic Air Intrusion & Major Winter Storm For Southern US & Northeast: January 23-25th Snow and freezing rain across much of the US and Canada.

I discuss the arctic air mass intrusion and impact of the winter storm across the US and Southern Ontario.

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YHM's Yearly Weather Summary:
-Above average yearly highs and lows (lower than 2024)
-Major lake effect snow in snow belts
-Well below average precipitation totals (good storms)
-Near climo Great Lakes ice coverage
-Alberta visit & 4 Screech Owlets

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Hamilton's December 2025 Climatology vs Observed: Colder & Snowier Than Average. Ice Storm Recap, Lake Effect Snow & California Tule Fog Comparing weather normals vs daily readings from Hamilton airport (YHM) and brief reports on weather related events across the world.

Hamilton (YHM) December Summary:
-Below average high & low temperatures
-Well above average monthly snowfall.
-Notable ice storm in surround areas (me)
-Major Lake effect snow banding off Lake Huron several times this month (same as November)

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One question I wrote about yesterday was the quantity of freezing rain for the GTA/Hamilton area before the change to rain. East of Hamilton, we’re already seeing several mm of accretion (some was from Boxing Day). The longer this lasts, the more problematic the winds may be.

The title concerns the December 28th through the 30th storm, not January. My mistake.

Strong Synoptic Storm With Widespread Impacts Expected: January 28th Through The 30th Across Ontario Parts of the Great Lakes will see freezing rain, heavy rain, strong winds and perhaps even snow with the arctic air trailing the low

I discuss the upcoming strong synoptic storm that will present a myriad of risks: strong winds, freezing rain risk, heavy rain, flash freeze, lake effect snow, arctic air intrusion & the timing of it all.

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Incoming Arctic Air Mass For The US Northern Plains & The Northeast Headed Into January Cold to warm, then back to cold for the Great Lakes

I discuss the arctic air mass intrusion and Alberta Clippers expected to run through the Great Lakes into early January.

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It does and it’ll likely stay this way for a few weeks. The pattern from most models within the next few weeks has continued northwest flow of arctic air sent our way. Being in the warm sector of a strong low may serve to warm things up for a few days (relative to ongoing), but that’s unknown

Hamilton's November Climatology vs Observed: Below Average Temperatures & 10th Highest November Snow Total Since 1959 Comparing weather normals vs daily readings from Hamilton airport (YHM) and brief reports on weather related events across the world.

Hamilton (YHM) November Weather Summary:
-Below average high & low temperatures
-Well above average monthly snowfall (nearly double)
& Top 10 highest November daily snowfall.
-Major Lake effect snow banding off Lake Huron several times this month.

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When a few inches of snow falls before the leaves are finished falling

In addition to the synoptic snow, parts of Hamilton and Grimsby area are likely seeing some lake effect enhancement with the NE near surface flow from Lake Ontario.

Near shore may be closer to wet snow/rain with the warm lake and further away from the lake is snow (me).

A Far Reaching Cold Wave & Potentially Snow For The Great Lakes Region This Weekend (November 9th Through 11th) An early taste of winter

A cold burst for much of eastern Canada and the US and potentially snow this weekend for the Great Lakes. I cover it here.

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Hamilton's October Climatology vs Observed: Welcome Rain For Southern Ontario, Hurricane Melissa Breakdown Comparing weather normals vs daily readings from Hamilton airport (YHM) and brief reports on weather related events across the world.

Hamilton (YHM) October Weather Summary:
-Higher than average high temperatures (pushing record early month)
-Warm & Dry streak is over
-Below average monthly rain streak continues (though alleviated elsewhere in Ontario)
-Hurricane Melissa Breakdown

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Right on time. Buffalo will dodge the snow this time, but the lakes are plenty warm and more troughs will come.

Pattern Shift: Lake Effect Rain (Not a Typo) For The Usual Lake Effect Snow Regions If you’ve been following my monthly Hamilton weather breakdowns, you’ll know much of Southern Ontario (and especially Eastern Ontario) has watched ridging take hold around here most of the summer and ...

Lake Effect Rain (yes, you read that right) expected for the familar snow belt areas as this Fall setup emulates the snow producing setups come Wednesday and Thursday.

I explain the hows and whys.

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Similarities Abound: A Meteorological Comparison Of The Arnett, OK and Greensburg, KS Tornadoes of 2007 & 2025 Similar presentations and similar synoptic setup yielding similar results

I've seen the comparisons of the damage scar of Enderlin to Greensburg (it's on point), but there was the other synoptic event (Arnett, OK) that happened earlier in the year that also mirrored Greensburg.

antonfalco.substack.com/p/similariti...

The First EF5 Tornado Since May 2013: Enderlin, North Dakota. June 20th. The Meteorology & EF Scale Explained A recent NWS upgrade changed the rating from EF4 to EF5

The Enderlin, North Dakota tornado was recently upgraded to an EF5, the first since Moore, Oklahoma 2013.

I discuss the meteorology, the EF Scale, and indicators that were surveyed that went into the decision.

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Hamilton's September Climatology vs Observed: The Year Of The Hot & Dry Summer & Close Encounter Hurricanes In The Atlantic Comparing weather normals vs daily readings from Hamilton airport (YHM) and brief reports on weather related events across the world.

Hamilton (YHM) September weather summary:
-Hot & Dry again (75% of expected rain)
-Summer devoid of significant rain
-Close Encounter Hurricanes
-Hurricanes Imelda & Humberto

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Hamilton (YHM) August weather summary:

-Hot & Dry Conditions first half (60% of expected rain)
-Muggy start, very dry end of month
-The year of the photogenic tornado continued
-Wildfire in cottage country
-Anton visits Alberta (more on my site)

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The Air Canada strike has left me here in Alberta until tomorrow with some friends.

I will take this parting gift.

Hamilton's July Climatology vs Observed: Muggy, Hot & Drought Conditions. Flash Flooding & Photogenic Tornadoes Continue In The US Comparing weather normals vs daily readings from Hamilton airport (YHM) and brief reports on weather related events

Hamilton (YHM) July weather summary:
-Hot & Dry Conditions (38% of expected rain)
-Very muggy: multiple days above 40 Humidex

Elsewhere:
-Flash flooding across the US
-The year of the photogenic tornado continued

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Synoptic Meteorology Breakdown of Yesterday's Tornado Near Goderich, Ontario (July 26th, 2025) A low risk of severe weather (mostly strong winds and heavy rain) was the highlighted risk on Saturday across parts of Southern Ontario.

A discussion on the synoptic meteorology of the tornado near Goderich, Ontario yesterday (July 26th, 2025). The usual well timed culprits were major factors (high 3CAPE).

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The northward extent of the ridging will be quite interesting for the Great Lakes into next week.

If flow overlaps with moisture return and embedded shortwaves, we could see an increased severe risk.

Mercifully, Southern Ontario will be entering a phase of lower temperatures, dew points and humidex after being under the influence of them for nearly a week. Enjoy.

The Photogenic Shelf Cloud Of June 27th: From Goderich to Hamilton Low end tornado risk turns into a shelf cloud run. Ontario classic.

The photogenic shelf cloud of June 27th recap. Pictures and video in the post.

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Photogenic Shelf Cloud Follows Me From Goderich To Hamilton, Ontario. June 27th, 2025 YouTube video by Anton Falco Photography

The YouTube recap of the shelf cloud event is here: youtu.be/z1lk44s55Qo