At SHIELD we’ll be watching the follow through very carefully to assess the rules and the guardrails that will govern our growing trading relationships and how we ensure the value of the economic activity we generate is delivered back into the hands of Canadians.
The Canadian government is actively courting new trade partners while simultaneously working to become our own best customer through the Buy Canadian policy. All of this is in pursuit of diversifying our economic partners to counteract the impacts of the trade war.
Canada may not have entered recession territory in 2025 but leading indicators like plans to add or reduce employees provide signals for how 2026 could unfold. Businesses are feeling the uncertainty of the trade war.
The last time the plans for cutting the workforce were this high was in 2016 when the economy was dealing with the aftermath of the oil price shock.
Other times when plans to reduce the size of the workforce were this high include the bursting of the dotcom bubble and the great recession.
Cndn businesses are less pessimistic about their future prospects than they were last summer but some indicators are showing alarming trends. The Bank of Canada's Business outlook survey shows the share of firms planning to reduce their workforce more than doubled between Q2 and Q4 of 2025.
Our Prime Minister has planted a flag in the ground. But it’s the deals that come after the speech – the guardrails that are set, the goals put in place, the rules of engagement that form the new partnerships – that will define Canada’s sovereignty and geopolitical positioning for years to come.
At The Canadian SHIELD Institute our focus has been on the investment agreements, trade deals and economic policy that will form the backbone of this new quest for strategic autonomy.
It was a strong speech that is grabbing a lot of attention - as it should. He outlined his approach to reclaiming Canada’s sovereignty. Now we're watching for the activity that will put this approach into action.
Thanks to Sammy Hudes from the @cdnpress.bsky.social for the good conversation about Prime Minister Mark Carney’s speech in Davos yesterday. To say the speech is gettign a lot of attention is an understatement! www.thecanadianpressnews.ca/national/car...
“The average doesn’t tell the story of Canada’s labour market,” Tiessen said.
“Having one overarching story makes everyone feel alienated from that story and then they’re not recognizing their own experience in what is getting reported.”
financialpost.com/pmn/business...
Economist and #SCPFellow @kaylietiessen.bsky.social on how Canada's 2025 jobs numbers mask uncertainty and growing disparities.
📈 👇 thetyee.ca/News/2026/01... @thetyee.ca
Thanks to @isaacphannay.bsky.social at the Tyee for covering my thoughts on the labour market in 2025.
Lots of turmoil under the surface of what looked to be a not-as-bad-as-it-could-have-been year for jobs across Canada.
thetyee.ca/News/2026/01...
All of this is to say that there is not one story in the labour market. And your view of how the economy is doing probably depends a lot on your own family’s situation.
Employment shrunk in construction and business services, barely budged in the goods producing sector — which includes both oil & gas and manufacturing — but employment grew substantially in health care, social services and tourism.
Men and women over the age of 25 had vastly different experiences as well: 114,000 more women in this age group were employed by the end of 2025 compared to 2024 and most of those new jobs were full-time. But only 67,000 more men were employed and most of those new jobs were part-time.
Young workers aged 15-24 faced the toughest labour market they had in years during the summer months. By December their unemployment rate was down to 11.6% from a high of more than 15% in July.
The prairie provinces — particularly Alberta — showed big gains, while Newfoundland and Labrador barely budged. Quebec, Ontario and BC showed mediocre gains.
Looking beyond those top-line numbers shows that how you experienced the first year of the trade war depends on your gender, industry, region, and age.
Employment grew by 1.1% in 2025. But more temporary jobs were created than permanent jobs and part-time jobs grew faster than full-time jobs.
The 2025 jobs numbers are out! And at first glance you might think it was a completely blah year for workers across Canada. But the headline numbers of “no recession” and “decent job creation” mask a lot of turmoil under the surface.
www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quo...
This week for @canadianshieldinstitute.ca, Chief Economist @kaylietiessen.bsky.social pulled together six charts to watch for 2026.
My favourite is this chart. New grads used to have a a higher employment rate than the overall population. Not anymore.
app.cyberimpact.com/newsletter-v...
My latest in The Monitor from @policyalternatives.ca : Right now, digital platforms decide what information is delivered to our feeds, how disinformation is allowed to spread and which companies get preference while we shop on-line. That needs to change.
Sign up for our newsletter, The National Interest, to find out what other charts I'm following in 2026. @canadianshieldinstitute.ca
In the face of Trump's economic threats, we need to put our energy towards dealing with the crisis in front of us and building a strong and resilient Ontario.
Watch #SCPFellow @kaylietiessen.bsky.social on TVO's The Agenda 👇
#EconSky
Tune in tonight at 8 & 11 for a thoughtful conversation about the things our politicians could do to demonstrate responsible spending while focussing on protecting people from the worst impacts of Trump's policies and threats. @dantisch.bsky.social @tvotoday.bsky.social @spaikin.bsky.social
The self-checkout experiment isn't working out like retailers hoped.
Though Loblaws customers do get the unique experience of being herded into fenced self-checkout pens like cattle.
Machines costs $25k+, theft is up 4%, and 30% of customers refuse to use them entirely.
There was an alternative to landing on the graveyard of incumbent governments in the wake of inflation. Mexico and Spain have demonstrated to the world how stabilizing the prices of essentials can pay back - economically and politically.
My first @foreignaffairs.bsky.social
