Read the paper we wrote with July Decarpentrie for @icds-tallinn.bsky.social on the key points of the French president’s speech on nuclear deterrence ⤵️
05.03.2026 11:29
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Read the paper we wrote with July Decarpentrie for @icds-tallinn.bsky.social on the key points of the French president’s speech on nuclear deterrence ⤵️
Particularly interesting discussions on cyber issues and Russia by geographers from @ifgeopolitique.bsky.social& @geode, and researchers from @coruscant-eu.bsky.social at the @icds-tallinn.bsky.social last week. Delighted to have welcome @kevinlimonier.bsky.social& @mlallouet.bsky.social !
Lisaks RKK uudiskirjas:
- Hosaka: Ukraina pärast Jermakki
- Fedosiuk: Valimised Ukrainas
- Gasper & Surendran: Saksamaa uus ajateenistus
- Paire: Prantsusmaa ajateenistus ja toetus Ukrainale
- Kohv & Klyszcz: Võitlus Vene hüdraga
@sanshiro.bsky.social @marpaire.bsky.social @ivanklyszcz.com
NATO figures show Europe and Canada are catching up with the US: their share of #NATO defence spending rose from 28% in 2015 to 36% in 2024, and is expected to reach 38% this year.
⬇️ Felix Gasper reviews current defence spending by each NATO ally: icds.ee/en/defence-s...
📧 RKK UUDISKIRI:
- Prantsusmaa valitsuse kukkumine @marpaire.bsky.social
- Felix Gasper: Kes teeb mida? NATO riikide kaitsekulude ülevaade
- Marek Kohv: Nädalavahetuse rünnak Kiievile
- Sahaidatšnõi keskus: Droonisõja õppetunnid Ukrainast
- Finn-Niklar Brünner: Euroopa vajab paremat tuumaheidutust
📩 UUDISKIRI:
- Ukraina rinne
- Gaza lõks @meriliarjakas.bsky.social
- Tollimaksud muutsid India suhtumist
- Külma sõja õpitunnid
- Prantsusmaa kaitse- ja julgeolekustrateegia uuendamine @marpaire.bsky.social
- Armeeniast Aserbaidžaani läbi Washingtoni @koen-claessen.bsky.social
🤝 We are delighted to welcome Helga Kalm as the International Centre for Defence and Security Deputy Director and Head of the Foreign Policy Programme, and Eda Ahi as the new Director of the #LennartMeriConference.
More: icds.ee/en/icds-welc...
📢 Ma tribune dans @lemonde.fr à propos de l'Ukraine et du débat sur les garanties de sécurité: j’y défends une idée simple mais exigeante : ne pas attendre le cessez-le-feu pour agir 👉 : www.lemonde.fr/idees/articl... Petit 🧵à dérouler ⤵️
The key takeaways from the French National Strategic Review ? Read my latest commentary for the @icds-tallinn.bsky.social 👇
Read my commentary for @icds-tallinn.bsky.social on the latest developments on European defence issues 👇
... To be continued : President's decisions in late 2025 (mobilisation of youth/reservists, 'evolutions' on nuclear deterrence), adoption of the budget this autumn and of course the reading of the updated strategic review already available!
7/In conclusion, serious but determined tone to boost defense capabilities, strong European dimension. US mentioned but only associated with the word ‘uncertainty’, RUS threat reaffirmed as a primary one...
6/World dimension: Indo-Pacific mentioned ‘to reject the logic of blocs and the laws of imperialism’, Indonesia guest of honour at the today's military parade;
...at the end of 2025 + reminder of Northwood's Declaration ‘there is no extreme threat to Europe that would not elicit a response from FRA & UK’; iii) reaffirmed support to UKR with the coalition of the willing co-led with the UK with an operational HQ set up and based in Paris;
5/Efforts at European level to support our Allies & partners: i) need to develop Europ. power and pillar of NATO through its own defence industry ; ii) ongoing dialogue with Europeans on the role of FRA's nuclear deterrence, Macron will return to the 'evolutions' this entails ...
... in 2027 (instead of 2030) at the end of Macron's term of office and with complicated public finances; iii) innovation to be promoted; iv) lessons learned from UKR: a nation capable of holding out, decisions will be taken on how to mobilise the youth&reservists;
4/This means that efforts must be made at national level: i) both the nation and the govt must be aware of and mobilised to face hybrid threats especially in the informational sphere; ii) the military programming law must be revised to reach a budget of 64 bn€ ...
3/Return of ‘nuclear threat, proliferation and major conflicts’ + hybrid threats. Anticipation of the changes (Strat Review 2017, 2 military programming laws) but there is an acceleration -->This diagnosis has been set out in the actualisation of Nat Strat Review published today;
... manipulations of information by foreign states, democratic model targeted by 'obscurantist forces'. Mention of a ‘overturning moment’ because ‘we no longer benefit from the peace dividends’;
2/President’s speech focused on the need to 'defend freedom' which has never been so threatened in Europe (‘our security and freedom are linked to the destiny of UKR’) and more generally in the world with imperialisms, rules of war erased, exoneration from international law, ...
1/ It's a speech that he gives every year on the eve of the military parade. But this one followed two speeches made by the CHOD on 11 July (see my last thread) and the director of the foreign intelligence agency on 9 July, both of which outlined the threats FRA faces;
On the Bastille Day, I'd like to go back over the key points from the President's speech to the armed forces he made yesterday🧶👇:
m.youtube.com/watch?v=eLwM...
8/ Armies must take into account the climate change, which will be ‘a catalyst for chaos’ in the years to come.
… in general it’s not possible to find normal the level of violence we are facing everywhere (including in the Middle East right now).
7/ Make the FRA people understand that the risk of war is already there : ‘even if the war is located in UKR i.e. beyond an area covered by Article 5 of NATO, it causes hundreds of deaths every day’, ‘we can’t get used to this and find it normal’ …
… anticipation since 2017: publication of a strategic review + two programming laws that have increased the defence budget.
6/‘Win the war before the war’ means to sufficiently be deterrent to avoid war. Ability to show determination and be ready to engage in high intensity warfare —> increase defence spending and investments (‘repair and rearm FRA armies’)…
… General Burkhard doesn’t fear a total withdrawal from Europe, but is expected a diminished US commitment, and therefore the Europeans must reinforce their capabilities.
5/In this respect, the first message of the Coalition of the Willing co-chaired with the UK (and joined by 30 countries) is essential : Europeans are capable of taking action without the US. However, it is fundamental to maintain the link with the US…
… its outcome (success or failure of the RUS strategy) will send a signal to the world whether the Europeans are actually taking responsibility or not;