Middle East Policy Council

Negotiating the Impossible? A WMD‐Free Zone in the Middle East The wars in Ukraine and Gaza have drawn attention to the role that nuclear weapons can play during periods of conflict and how regional crises can bar preventive diplomacy. Work toward establishing a...

While Trump decides whether to launch a war on Iran, @drrmason.bsky.social focuses on the potential for a new nuclear deal to be a "platform" for the effort to turn the Middle East into a WMD-free zone. But this requires incentives for Israel to cooperate.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Saudi Arabia and Iran: Spoilers or Enablers of Conflict? Saudi Arabia and Iran played roles, inadvertently or not, in enabling the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel in October 2023. Before the war that ensued, Tehran aided and funded Hamas and its military ....

For more on what the #Hamas vote to choose an interim leader means for the #MiddleEast, see my article (available open-access) @mideastpolicy.bsky.social:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
www.bbc.com/news/article...

Negotiating the Restoration Of the Iran Nuclear Deal There have been protracted negotiations in Vienna to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or nuclear deal, that Iran signed in 2015 but was suspended by the withdrawal of the United...

The stage was set for a potential Iran war when Trump repudiated the nuclear deal in 2018. This analysis by Wyn Rees and Hossein Salimian Rizi shows how Tehran took a much harder line, driven by distrust of the US and closer ties with China & Russia.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Israeli minister says next government must 'encourage' Palestinian migration from West Bank Bezalel Smotrich calls for end of Oslo Accords as part of his 'Colonisation 2030' campaign

Israeli minister says next government must 'encourage' Palestinian migration from West Bank - https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/far-right-minister-says-israel-should-encourage-palestinian-migration-occupied-west-bank

The June 2025 Israeli War: Iran's Assessment and Regional Consequences In June 2025, Iran and Israel engaged in their first direct war. Unlike the two confrontations of the previous year, this conflict began with an Israeli attack on Iranian territory. The intensity and...

As Trump deepens the war footing, Netanyahu pushes US negotiators to demand an end to Iran’s missile program. Ali Bagheri Dolatabadi explains why the June war exposed Israel’s vulnerability, leading to a greater emphasis on these weapons than on nukes.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

The Israeli Peace Movement in a Time of Crisis This article examines the state of the contemporary Israeli peace movement following the October 7, 2023, attacks and the resulting wars. Drawing on frame analysis and more than 40 in-depth interview...

As Israel expands West Bank control & sends soldiers to prevent Palestinians from plowing, a new article features interviews with activists on the ground, who share their strategies and frustrations while Netanyahu scuttles the prospects for peace.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Why the New Turkey‐PKK Peace Process Is Likely to Fail In fall 2024, the Turkish government suddenly proposed that the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) disarm and disband in return for unspecified concessions. Abdullah Ocalan, the group's long-incarcerated...

Erdoğan contends that Damascus’s success in disbanding Kurdish-led forces has provided momentum for peace talks with the PKK. Michael M. Gunter argues in a new analysis that Ankara’s attempt to end the struggle is likely to fail.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Why the New Turkey‐PKK Peace Process Is Likely to Fail In fall 2024, the Turkish government suddenly proposed that the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) disarm and disband in return for unspecified concessions. Abdullah Ocalan, the group's long-incarcerated...

Erdoğan contends that Damascus’s success in disbanding Kurdish-led forces has provided momentum for peace talks with the PKK. Michael M. Gunter argues in a new analysis that Ankara’s attempt to end the struggle is likely to fail.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Maritime Disruption in Yemen: The Making of a Hybrid Red Sea Order Since late 2023, Houthi forces in Yemen have employed drones and missiles to disrupt commercial shipping in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, necessitating global rerouting and prompting multilateral naval r...

As Maersk and other shippers take tentative steps to return to the Red Sea, @fededonelli.bsky.social shows that the corridor has become a hybrid security complex shaped more by conflict than cooperation. Findings also affect other maritime zones. Open access!
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Maritime Disruption in Yemen: The Making of a Hybrid Red Sea Order Since late 2023, Houthi forces in Yemen have employed drones and missiles to disrupt commercial shipping in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, necessitating global rerouting and prompting multilateral naval r...

As Maersk and other shippers take tentative steps to return to the Red Sea, @fededonelli.bsky.social shows that the corridor has become a hybrid security complex shaped more by conflict than cooperation. Findings also affect other maritime zones. Open access!
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

The Struggle for Syria: Strategic Rivalry and the Risks of Escalation This article investigates the rivalry between Turkey and Israel over Syria, which has intensified since the ouster of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. The two states have pursued conflicting securit....

New Middle East Policy article! As the US weighs pulling troops from Syria after the SDF collapse, Buğra Sari and Avnihan Kirişik analyze a larger challenge facing the regime in Damascus: the risk of a direct clash—inside the country—between Israel and Turkey.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

The Struggle for Syria: Strategic Rivalry and the Risks of Escalation This article investigates the rivalry between Turkey and Israel over Syria, which has intensified since the ouster of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. The two states have pursued conflicting securit....

New Middle East Policy article! As the US weighs pulling troops from Syria after the SDF collapse, Buğra Sari and Avnihan Kirişik analyze a larger challenge facing the regime in Damascus: the risk of a direct clash—inside the country—between Israel and Turkey.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

From Rebuilding to Restoring Political Order: A New Agenda for Failed Arab States A new approach to rebuilding collapsed states is being trialed in the Arab world, most conspicuously by the Trump administration but with broad international support. This replaces the previous model...

New open-access article explores nascent US paradigm to restore order in failed states: (1) back a strongman who it thinks can unify the country; (2) reinforce this through a council of Mideast powers including Gulf states, Turkey, Israel. Free to read:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

🚨New issue of @MidEastPolicy out now!📘

Among many excellent contributions, my #article looks at the new #security #configuration of the #RedSea—and what it means for #regional order and #global dynamics.

A must-read issue👇

#Yemen #Sudan #Somalia #Somaliland #Israel #Gaza

Middle East Policy: Vol 32, No 4 Click on the title to browse this issue

New Middle East Policy analyzes rebuilding failed states, Saudi gains with Trump, new Red Sea order, Turkey-Israel conflict in Syria, Israel peace movement, Erdogan’s challenges. Bugra Sari, Guilain Denoeux, Robert Springborg, @fededonelli.bsky.social, more.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/toc/14754967...

The 2022 Iran Protests: The View from the Streets The fall 2022 protests in Iran reflected the public's frustration with the status quo. These outbursts were sparked by the death of a young woman, Mahsa Amini, in police custody and quickly spread, u...

As the Iranian regime faces its biggest domestic challenge in years, new Middle East Policy article features interviews with people who participated in the Woman, Life, Freedom demonstrations, seeking to understand their motivations and hopes.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

The 2022 Iran Protests: The View from the Streets The fall 2022 protests in Iran reflected the public's frustration with the status quo. These outbursts were sparked by the death of a young woman, Mahsa Amini, in police custody and quickly spread, u...

As the Iranian regime faces its biggest domestic challenge in years, new Middle East Policy article features interviews with people who participated in the Woman, Life, Freedom demonstrations, seeking to understand their motivations and hopes.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Middle East Policy: Vol 32, No 4 Click on the title to browse this issue

Issue no. 166 of Middle East Policy explores the new regional orders, the Turkey-Israel conflict, Erdogan’s struggles with the PKK and the opposition, and peace activists in Israel. With
Guilain Denoeux, Robert Springborg, @fededonelli.bsky.social, many others
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/toc/14754967...

Middle East Policy: Vol 32, No 4 Click on the title to browse this issue

Issue no. 166 of Middle East Policy explores the new regional orders, the Turkey-Israel conflict, Erdogan’s struggles with the PKK and the opposition, and peace activists in Israel. With
Guilain Denoeux, Robert Springborg, @fededonelli.bsky.social, many others
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/toc/14754967...

With the US backing a new Israel-Iran war, Middle East Policy issues its new journal, exploring the new regional order, the Israel peace movement, Turkey’s domestic struggles. With
Guilain Denoeux, Robert Springborg, @fededonelli.bsky.social, many more
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/toc/14754967/2025/32/4

With the US backing a new Israel-Iran war, Middle East Policy issues its new journal, exploring the new regional order, the Israel peace movement, Turkey’s domestic struggles. With
Guilain Denoeux, Robert Springborg, @fededonelli.bsky.social, many more
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/toc/14754967/2025/32/4

Negotiating the Impossible? A WMD‐Free Zone in the Middle East The wars in Ukraine and Gaza have drawn attention to the role that nuclear weapons can play during periods of conflict and how regional crises can bar preventive diplomacy. Work toward establishing a...

As part of our look back to the best articles of 2025, @drrmason.bsky.social examines how to build a WMD-free zone across the Middle East, including how to create incentives for Israel to “transition away from nuclear arms.”
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

The Perils of Nuclear Talks After the US‐Israel War on Iran In June 2025, Israel bombed Iranian nuclear facilities, military commanders and scientists, and civilian areas, with assistance from the United States—Washington's first foray into conventional warfa...

Among our top articles of ’25, @banafshkeynoush.bsky.social argues Trump’s ‘narrative of dominating the outcome of a nuclear deal, and the Iranian elite’s consensus over unlimited enrichment and breaking US hegemony, are major obstacles.’ Open access:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Iran's Annus Horribilis in 2024: Beaten, but Not Defeated Iran and the Axis of Resistance—the armed nonstate actors that it supports, plus the Assad regime in Syria—had a horrible 2024. Hamas and Hezbollah suffered heavy blows at the hands of Israel. Bashar...

One of our most-read articles of 2025: @thomasjuneau.bsky.social analyzes Iran’s annus horribilis and lays out the potential for the Islamic Republic “to claw back its losses” amid the “new normal in the regional balance of power.” Open access:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Best Articles of 2025: New Regional (Dis)order - Middle East Policy Council President Donald Trump has signed a law ending all American sanctions on Syria, one month after the Islamist former rebels who now run the government joined the fight against the Islamic State. Throug...

Best of ’25, cont.: the new (dis)order, from Iran-Israel to a WMD-free zone, new approach to collapsed states, Saudi hedging, regional corporate elite. With
@thomasjuneau.bsky.social
@banafshkeynoush.bsky.social
@hannesbaumann.bsky.social
@drrmason.bsky.social
& many more
mepc.org/commentaries...

Among our top articles of 2025, Ali Bagheri Dolatabadi analyzes Iran’s taken on the June war, finding that Tehran’s success in penetrating Israel’s defenses could make missiles, not nukes, key to the next phase of conflict.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Best Articles of 2025: New Regional (Dis)order - Middle East Policy Council President Donald Trump has signed a law ending all American sanctions on Syria, one month after the Islamist former rebels who now run the government joined the fight against the Islamic State. Throug...

Best of ’25, cont.: the new (dis)order, from Iran-Israel to a WMD-free zone, new approach to collapsed states, Saudi hedging, regional corporate elite. With
@thomasjuneau.bsky.social
@banafshkeynoush.bsky.social
@hannesbaumann.bsky.social
@drrmason.bsky.social
& many more
mepc.org/commentaries...

Best Articles of 2025: The Gaza War - Middle East Policy Council This week, the prospects for peace in Gaza remained tenuous as Israel and Hamas continued to shift their positions on the next phase of the ceasefire amid continued violence against, and lack of suffi...

Our best articles of 2025 on Gaza: dispossession & dehumanization of Palestinians, Saudi & Iranian impotence, prospects for normalization, Israeli peace movements & resistance
M.T. Samuel
@banafshkeynoush.bsky.social
@zivguy.bsky.social
Yagil Levy
Mahmood Monshipouri
more
mepc.org/commentaries...

Best Articles of 2025: The Gaza War - Middle East Policy Council This week, the prospects for peace in Gaza remained tenuous as Israel and Hamas continued to shift their positions on the next phase of the ceasefire amid continued violence against, and lack of suffi...

Our best articles of 2025 on Gaza: dispossession & dehumanization of Palestinians, Saudi & Iranian impotence, prospects for normalization, Israeli peace movements & resistance
M.T. Samuel
@banafshkeynoush.bsky.social
@zivguy.bsky.social
Yagil Levy
Mahmood Monshipouri
more
mepc.org/commentaries...

Best Articles of 2025: The Gaza War - Middle East Policy Council This week, the prospects for peace in Gaza remained tenuous as Israel and Hamas continued to shift their positions on the next phase of the ceasefire amid continued violence against, and lack of suffi...

As the ceasefire plan bogs down ahead of phase 2 and Palestinians face devastating storms, we look back at our year of covering the Gaza war. Featuring
M.T. Samuel
@banafshkeynoush.bsky.social
@zivguy.bsky.social
Yagil Levy
Mahmood Monshipouri
and many others from 2025
mepc.org/commentaries...