Why not the Kehoe-Prescott?
06.07.2025 19:07
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Why not the Kehoe-Prescott?
Have you written a great macro paper?
Submit to the CJE.
New macro crowd in the editorial board with Joe Steinberg at the helm.
#macro #econbluesky
Thanks for the nice words, John!
Thank you @chrisneill.bsky.social!!! We are very happy with the recognition!
If, as the say, "Wars are God's way of teaching Americans geography," it must be the case that "Tariffs are God's way of teaching Americans Economics."
"I thought I was voting for pro-business policies and small, targeted, and incremental tariffs, that would encourage..." How could anyone watch Trump, listen to what he says, and think anything constructive would ensue on the economic policy front?
We're in the midst of an election, so lots of not-entirely-fleshed-out promises being made. I think we have to wait to see the first budget from the incoming government.
The Toronto Life folks (Ali Amad, in this case) did a great job summarizing how things have been.
torontolife.com/city/it-felt...
Our paper with Jack "Trade Wars with Trade Deficits" has made quite the rounds as of late.
We put together these notes to help understand the results:
drive.google.com/file/d/1cTRr...
Our paper with Jack "Trade Wars with Trade Deficits" has made quite the rounds as of late.
We put together these notes to help understand the results:
drive.google.com/file/d/1cTRr...
Yes, the stock market behaves efficiently. Erratic, volatile are not antonyms of efficient.
Williamson is spot on, as usual.
1/So, I take "efficient market hypothesis" to be the proposition that there is some model of rational behavior consistent with asset market behavior. What's puzzling? You load the world up with a highly unusual amount of uncertainty, and then force it to respond to a quickly-evolving series...
I am happy the Globe and Mail published this piece.
Don't blame @paupujolas.bsky.social
Trump Administration has cited this paper by Pujolas & Rossbach as justifying recent Trump tariffs. It does not. Nor does it justify 2018 Trump tariffs on China:
"We find that both the United States and China experienced welfare losses from their recent trade war."
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Worried about Smoot-Hawley repeating?
You should be *even more* worried now.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
Advertencia importante de @paupujolas.bsky.social : los países pequeños siempre pierden en guerras comerciales. Razón de más para mantener filas prietas en la UE.
Los Estados Unidos podría iniciar una guerra comercial con China y, si se establecieran los aranceles correctos, ganarla. 2/3
Ya lo dijimos en este artículo
nadaesgratis.es/admin/guerra...
De cara al futuro, los responsables de la formulación de políticas comerciales, deben comprender que los desequilibrios comerciales bilaterales cambian la manera de pensar en guerras comerciales... 1/3
De hecho, nuestros resultados indican que, de mantenerse los desequilibrios comerciales bilaterales existentes, la política comercial óptima para Estados Unidos consiste en empezar un montón de guerras comerciales con varios países. 3/3
Elbows up, Canada.
A great idea from my friend David Feeny and his wife Darrell Tomkins.
Help a first-generation student by donating!
dailynews.mcmaster.ca/articles/why...
www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
Because "retaliating" is a misleasing word.
One of my companies informed me they cancelled a $2m conference in Florida. Why ?
They didn’t feel they could pass on the incremental cost of tariffs. So they are cutting expenses.
That’s a city that lost a ton of tourism revenue.
The cost of tariffs isn’t just the cost of the tariff
Felicidades Juan!!
Let's have a second to think of all those Old Folks in Trumpland that voted for the Very Stable Genius and are now panicking when they look at their 401k.
Vote for the Qualified, Dark-Skinned Female next time, ey?
(If there is a next time)
"I've seen photographs..." What a clown.
Trudeau: "He talked about banking again today in a tweet, which doesn't make any sense because 16 banks are currently active in Canada holding about $113b worth of assets in this country... what he wants is to see a total collapse of the Canadian economy, because that'll make it easier to annex us."
