Very true.
02.03.2026 04:30
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Very true.
they ran in all but five seats at the last election, so that won't be their limiting factor.
Hanson absolutely can be sworn in as PM while sitting in the senate (see Gorton for the precedent). She would need to switch to the House after, and that's probably what she would do if PHON managed to form government. It's very significant Hanson has a substantial lead over Taylor as preferred PM.
One Nation are leading the Coalition by a long way on primary votes, and if an election were held now would probably be the second largest party in the House of Representatives.
Likewise, Josh.
Really enjoyed chatting with @benraue.com and @shaunratcliff.bsky.social about the growing importance of housing and asset ownership in voting on The Tally Room podcast. Take a listen if you're interested!
Today's podcast features @joshgoddard98.bsky.social and @shaunratcliff.bsky.social and is about how your position in the housing market (and your asset wealth) is becoming a more significant determinant of how you vote. www.tallyroom.com.au/64384
what makes you say that?
I spoke to Marija Taflaga and @markgkenny.bsky.social on ANU's Democracy Sausage podcast about our polling and what it means for Australian politics
Listen here:
reporter.anu.edu.au/all-stories/...
Listen to the latest episode of ANU's Democracy Sausage podcast, where I talk to Marija and Mark about the January AFR/RedBridge/Accent Research poll, and the potential of a realignment of the Australian party system
How has the preferential voting system masked the decline of the major parties and why is the decline worse for the Liberals and Nationals? 🗳️
#AUListen #DemocracySausage 🎙️ @shaunratcliff.bsky.social @marijataflaga.bsky.social @markgkenny.bsky.social 👉 ausi.anu.edu.au/news/democra...
Listen to the latest episode of ANU's Democracy Sausage podcast, where I talk to Marija and Mark about the January AFR/RedBridge/Accent Research poll, and the potential of a realignment of the Australian party system
I spoke to Marija Taflaga and @markgkenny.bsky.social on ANU's Democracy Sausage podcast about our polling and what it means for Australian politics
Listen here:
reporter.anu.edu.au/all-stories/...
The sample is a bit small for that, so the movements will be noisy. When we next do a large sample poll we'll probably include some demographic time series, like we did late last year.
The January AFR/RedBridge/Accent Research poll is out now. It shows that since December, the vote share of the former Coalition parties has collapsed further.
The Liberal, LNP and National vote is less than half of their pre-election high.
sort of, although younger renters and financial stressed voters are more likely to go to the Greens rather than One Nation.
thanks Ben, appreciated!
some large-sample survey work we did last year found that the best groups for One Nation were older renters, and older voters reporting high levels of financial insecurity
Here are the crosstabs in the report (for vote).
More coming tomorrow.
The fieldwork for this survey of N = 1,003 Australian voters was conducted between Thursday 22 January and Thursday 29 January.
This is a warning of things to come for the former parties of the Coalition, and also Labor. Failure to address the challenges faced by voters will only lead to more voters fleeing the centre.
It is broad based, driven by dissatisfaction with the major parties, the broader political system, and a deep pessimism about the direction in which Australia is heading.
We haven’t necessarily seen the end point of this trend.
What these results indicate is that the wave of support being enjoyed by Pauline Hanson and her party is not just about the Liberal leadership, the split in the Coalition, or immigration. Although these all play a role.
One Nation is catching up, though and is now ahead of the Liberal Party on housing, cost of living and climate change, and tied on national security; while it leads as the preferred party of a plurality of voters on immigration.
More voters also see One Nation as best able to handle a range of significant issues.
Labor still seen as the better party to handle 4 out of the 6 issues asked about in this survey, but its lead is slipping.
The other is the share of voters who say say Australia is headed in the wrong direction, which has also grown over the past month and a half.
Reasons for One Nation’s growing support can be seen in two figures:
The first is the the shift in salience of immigration and national security
Both issues have become more important to voters since December