Dan Silverman

The information environment matters.

And consensus truth is a public good we can build democratic institutions to facilitate and protect.

It would be a great public service if a credible organization who monitors the info environment in war -- Bellingcat? -- would put out a simple rating system for the accuracy and reliability of the biggest OSINT accounts on X so that members of the public (and even experts) knew the landscape

Why are you doing this to us

Have we ever started a war that has spread to and imperiled so many countries at once? Can‘t think of one

This was clear from the jump, but the Venezuela invasion going as smoothly as it did, from a pure operational perspective, is going to prove catastrophic in the long run.

Yeah it’s not that hard to understand folks. It’s classic Pape/Dying to Win. (Perceived) foreign occupation —> terrorist/violent resistance

Thus, if swaths of people perceive the U.S. to be “occupied” by Israel, some small slice of them may attack things that they associate with Israel

Bay of Pigs 2.0 or Mogadishu 2.0 are still the chief dangers here

And since the admin can’t win, and certainly won’t want to admit it lost, there’s a real risk they try something

Honestly, I’d read that

"The wealthy Gulf states and their people had good reason to feel that they were detaching from the region’s problems... The human price of regional power politics was supposed to be paid by Syrians, Sudanese, Lebanese, and Yemenis—not by them."

Very fair. I think there is a logic perhaps -- they believe that narrative reigns and you can bend the narrative however you want. Honestly, that can work more than we in the "reality-based community" like to admit sometimes but in cases like this, per my post, I think it is easy to blow up

Seems like a very easy narrative for Iran to puncture, all they have to do is launch any fresh attack and the press will cover it and the "unconditionally surrendered" claim will be dead?

In the end, though, I still think there’s a pretty decent shot he wins both the primary and the general despite all of these legitimate concerns

I have to admit, I think I‘ve been more torn on Platner than most on here but this thread definitely raises some serious concerns about his story from both an honesty and an electability perspective

Donald J. Trump C @realDonaldTrump + There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER! After that, and the selection of a GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s), we, and many of our wonderful and very brave allies and partners, will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before. IRAN WILL HAVE A GREAT FUTURE. "MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN (MIGA!)." Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Unconditional surrender without ground troops. Right.

Seriously wouldn't be surprised if they started moving toward body doubles or lookalikes at this point

Needless to say, this war is incredibly foolish for the U.S.

But it's crazy that, *if you were going to do it,* you didn't do it 1-2 months ago when the population was actually out in force doing the thing you want on Iran's streets

So you want the Iranian people, some 20k of which was just slaughtered, to do what -- mass outside a few govt buildings and try to take them over?

Will those buildings be bombed? Do you realize how easily they can be painted as foreign collaborators now and mowed down? What is it you're suggesting?

DropSite going with the Humane Nazis angle on submarine warfare

Anecdotal and I’m sure views were mixed throughout the region, but I do have to say I have Pakistani *Sunni* *establishment* mutuals on FB who were posting martyrhood type memes of Khamenei after his death

I want to see a Dem supercut ad of Trump 2.0 officials’ most damning remarks, weaving this in with

-Musk’s “mistakes will be made” re: DOGE
-Leavitt’s “his main focus is the ballroom”
-Maybe throw in a “you people can have a few less dolls”
-End with JD laughing and saying “politics should be fun!”

The last photo of third-grader Mikaeil Mirdoraghi, waving to his mom before he left for school. He was killed shortly after in the U.S./Israeli strike on a primary school in Minab.

Azerbaijan says four injured by Iranian drones, vows to retaliate Azerbaijan was preparing unspecified retaliatory measures on Thursday after it said four Iranian drones had crossed its border and injured four ‌people in the Nakhchivan exclave, raising concerns abou...

Update: Oy

'We don't see any reason to negotiate: Araghchi We have more comments from Iran's top diplomat. In a live interview with NBC, Abbas Aragchi said Iran is "not asking for a ceasefire". "We don't see any reason why we should negotiate with the US", he said. "When we negotiated with them twice, every time, they attacked us in the middle of negotiations." Araghchi also emphasised that Iran has not closed the Strait of Hormuz, saying "it is the ships and tankers" that have refused to cross the waterway.

Iranian Foreign Minister:

“We don’t see any reason to negotiate”

(aje.news/0avpno?updat...)

It’s a good point — “Track AIPAC” seems to sketchily lump JStreet and other softer sources in under their umbrella phrase “pro-Israel lobby and their mega donors” for candidates they don’t like, and exclude them for those they do

Nancy Youssef, ..guil @ X.com @nancyayoussef The preliminary Pentagon cost estimate of the war in Iran is $1 billion a day, a congressional official told me. 12:20 PM • 3/4/26 • 44K Views

Preliminary Pentagon cost estimate of the war in Iran is $1 BILLION a day. So far.

To the surprise of some officials in Kyiv, no one from the U.S. bothered to ask Ukraine to share its expertise in how to defend against drones before starting the offensive in Iran, Simon Shuster and Nancy A. Youssef report. theatln.tc/AFPCstm6

You’re now “far left” unless you falsely claim an election was stolen against my personalist authoritarian wanna-be party leader, says constitutional law scholar

It’s happening again

That’s quite a combo of perspectives on this, indeed

Iraq's first lady, Shanaz Ibrahim Ahmed, a political/humanitarian figure from a prominent (& very political) Sulimaniyah-rooted Kurdish family closely tied to the PUK, coming in hot with a free history lesson for people who think Iraqi Kurds might be unquestioningly game for more US bait-and-switch.