5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Why this oil price spike is nothing like June:
1) June YoY increase was negative, now positive
2) Current YoY increase higher than level seen in spring/summer 2024, when Biden got into political trouble over #affordability
Time to TACO?
4 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
$GLD hasn't seen this level of panic outflows since 2016
#sentiment
3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
$GDX now on rising trend line support
2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
$SPX forward P/E now down to 20.9 after Friday's downdraft. Is that cheap enough?
1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
All major US indices are breaking down out of their trading ranges, except for $NDX
How can Iran surrender if Israel/US keep trying to kill any new leadership?
5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
For the past few weeks I've warned about the elevated readings of NYSE High Low Logic, which indicates a bifurcated market, much like the #HindenburgOmen. Will the #Iran war be the trigger for a correction?
4 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Equity risk appetite factors look a little wobbly here
3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
The combination of sideways $SPX price movement and rising EPS estimates means that forward P/E has fallen to 21.5. Less stratospheric but still elevated.
2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
$SPX forward 12m EPS estimates are rising strongly
1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Major US averages have been range bound, except EW $SPX is in an uptrend. Though $IWM violated a rising trend line but range bound.
5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
If you thought small caps represent the new leadership, here's a warning. The $SML is exhibiting a negative divergence against its A-D Line.
4 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Beware! The market is still highly bifurcated
3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Software stocks are still weak, and technology is testing a key relative support level.
$IGV
2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Our #TradeWar factor barely budged in response to the #IEEPA decision
1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Did you notice the market reaction to the #SCOTUS #IEEPA ruling? $SPX was up less than 1% and $VVIX remains above 100, indicating continued anxiety.
5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Meanwhile, consumer staples are surging, highly extended, while exhibiting "good" overbought conditions.
$XLP
4 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
$NDX has further potential downside risk relative to $SPX
Not oversold yet
3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Credit market angst: Chicago Fed study found 26% of big bank loans to software companies are rated B or lower
www.chicagofed.org/publications...
2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Software Apocalypse charted. $IGV violated several int relaltive support levels & now testing key support.
More worrisome is the breach of relative uptrend of technology against equal-weigthed $SPX
1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Software Apocalypse?
I'm old enough to remember who Time Magazine named as Person of the Year
I know that everyone is excited about broadening breadth. But the EW $SPX and $ACWI ex-US are now at the top of their rising channels. Too much too fast?
$SPX $SPXEW $ACWX
5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Polymarket odds of an attack on #Iran. This can't be called tail-risk anymore.
4 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
#Value on a tear against #Growth across all market cap bands and internationally.
3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Earnings season results has been strong, and the recent price weakness has pulled $SPX fwd P/E to 21.5, the bottom of a recent range. If this is a normal drawdown in a bull trend, this a good place for the decline to stop.
2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Bad New? A cluster of Hindenburg Omen signals
1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Don't forget about the Dow Theory buy signal
5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
$SPX breadth is still broadening
4 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
#Growth has become oversold relative to #Value
3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Estimates are still rising strongly
