If anything that framing is emblematic of the problem: that is a very, very small group of voters. Most Green voters are, by this point, Green supporters (see 2021 Scottish Election Study findings), parsing them as actually SNP supporters because they may cast such a constituency vote is unhelpful
Map of projected seats. Constituencies are 63 SNP, 2 Conservative, 2 Labour, 5 Lib Dem, 1 Green, 0 Alba, 0 Reform. Regional list seats are 0 SNP, 7 Conservative, 16 Labour, 5 Lib Dem, 10 Green, 0 Alba, 18 Reform. Lead party per region is Central and Lothians West SNP, Edinburgh and Lothians East SNP, Glasgow SNP, Highlands and Islands SNP, Mid and Fife SNP, North East SNP, South SNP, West SNP. Gallagher Index is 15.3 - a lower index means a more proportional result.
Map of projected runners up and margins. Constituency runner ups are SNP 7, Conservative 11, Labour 34, Lib Dem 4, Green 4, Reform UK 13. In percentage terms, constituency margins of victory are 7 below 5, 14 between 5 and 10, 35 between 10 and 20, 17 above 20. Closest runner up for last list seat in each region is Central and Lothians West Reform UK, Edinburgh and Lothians East Reform UK, Glasgow Green, Highlands and Islands Green, Mid and Fife Conservative, North East Conservative, South Conservative, West Reform UK.
Ipsos 19-25 Feb seat projection (vs last poll / vs 2021 on new boundaries); AMS Ideal seats:
SNP ~ 60 (nc / -3); 38
Lab ~ 20 (+1 / -1); 25
Grn ~ 16 (-1 / +6); 22
RUK ~ 13 (-4 / +13); 18
Con ~ 10 (-1 / -21); 14
LD ~ 10 (+5 / +6); 12
(Projection caveats: ballotbox.scot/projections)
The reason the SNP keep pushing both votes SNP is because they don't want the Scottish Greens to have enough power to drag them left
Greens set to become the largest party in the Edinburgh and Lothian East region.
Greens are not a wasted vote. Every vote for a Green candidate is a vote for a better, fairer, and independent Scotland π
Most accurate pollster in 2024 btw π
Looks good! Appreciate the work youβre doing π
That would be grand, but no pressure. I would say thatβs best saved for a month from now when polling in urban constituencies gives a clearer verdict on SNP-Green marginals. Wouldnβt want you changing your graphic twice.
Iβm sure the SNP wants a majority. I donβt mind them campaigning for that. Whatβs damaging is to argue itβs the *ONLY* route to independence.
How do you expect non-SNP members of the Indy movement to react? The SNP and the Indy movement are not the same thing. One is more popular than the other.
We campaign on positives. Itβs why weβre up in the polls on track for 3rd place.
Will an SNP majority on 25-30% change Starmers mind? Will it carry more public salience than an Indy-party majority?
I think itβs no to both. The SNP risks losing credibility and setting Indy back with this strategy.
Cheers. The margins in the handful of urban constituencies Greens are contesting are also getting narrower over time. But letβs see where things lie closer to May on those.
Fair enough. I suspect Greens will contest fewer constituencies than 2021, so this will only really be relevant in a handful of constituencies anyways.
The SNP-GRN margin in other urban constituencies is also getting narrower, so weβll see where things lie closer to May.
Worth considering there are constituencies where the Greens are polling ahead of the SNP, or soon to be with shifts in public opinion.
Edinburgh Central is the key example of this.
Greens often spotlight key wins that wouldnβt have happened without us (free bus travel, rent controls, scrapping peak time rail fares etc).
Broadly speaking our time in government was positive, and itβs telling the SNP started rolling back on progressive policies as soon as they kicked us out.
Iβm not expecting the SNP to not criticise us. Weβre separate parties for a reason. I mean itβs actively damaging to the Indy movement to argue an SNP majority is the only way.
If we agree an SNP majority wonβt change anything, then what happens post election? Why would voters believe us again?
With your help, we can bring hope back to politics π www.greens.scot/join
With the Holyrood elections approaching, Greens are proving we are not a wasted vote.
Polling shows us beating the Tories, Lib Dems, & Labour. With your help, we can beat Reform too.
In key constituencies, we can beat the SNP, secure our fair share of seats, and build a better, fairer Scotland.
Confused to hear folks talk up an SNP majority as the only route to indy because:
1- Why would an SNP majority on 25-30% vote share change Starmerβs mind or carry more public salience than a SNP-GRN majority?
2- Itβs clearly the SNP trying to sideline Greens as effective progressive opposition.
Update: todayβs @scotvoting.bsky.social figures, put through the @devolvedelections.bsky.social model, show us winning 5 constituencies, leading Edinburgh & LE region, and more than doubling our number of MSPs, 3 short of 2nd place.
For hope not hate, vote Green π
Help us take on the billionaires and make history: members.greens.scot/join/
Last night reminded us whatβs possible when we stand for hope, not fear
Current polling puts @scottishgreens.org within a 5% swing of winning 4 constituencies, topping Edinburgh & Lothian East region, and electing record numbers of MSPs
For a better, fairer, greener Scotland, vote Green in May π
Whatβs wrong with criticising the SNP? I criticise the Greens on many things. Itβs healthy to be critical. I wouldnβt call that βbashingβ. I respect and would work with people in the progressive wing of the SNP on many things.
The SNP alone is not the Indy movement.
Iβm not sure what youβre getting at?
Iβm getting people joining the Greens and telling me they were disappointed with the SNP. If they feel more comfortable in the Greens of course Iβll welcome them. I also have friends more comfortable in the SNP. Thereβs nothing wrong with any of that.
I just said some people are disappointed with the SNP and are shifting to the Greens? Itβs factually correct, and better for the indy movement than if they went to Labour or Reform instead.
Itβs healthy to have a multi-party indy movement because not everyone will agree with the SNP on policy.
The bottom line is I want folks to be able to vote however they wish. Lending votes to Greens or SNP, however they wish. An Indy majority can achieve a lot, especially when SNP + Greens work together.
I just donβt believe a majority in seats without a majority of vote share is enough for Indyref2.
I canβt speak for my party, but personally I want a result that reflect vote share as much as possible. I stand against unrepresentative voting systems when it works against Greens, and I also donβt want this. I donβt believe itβs productive, and it would only alienate those that didnβt vote for us.
Both.
Gap in const. and list (9% vs 12% in this case) consistent with FPTP pressures on smaller parties.
That 9% is the prediction if we stood everywhere. We wonβt. If poll was correct, the const share for Greens in practice would be below 9, as voters wouldnβt have the option, and look elsewhere.
Once again I agree with you here too. I just think that whilst making the case for independence we must also ensure weβre governing effectively with the tools we have to rekindle both the salience of independence and boost public support for it.
Completely agree. Thatβs actually exactly what Iβm saying. Many Green aligned voters vote for the SNP when the Greens arenβt an option, or they feel pressured by FPTP to not let a unionist/ right wing party in.
Also to be clear I completely agree with you here. I think itβs abhorrent Labour governs with a majority propped up with a third of the vote, and that theyβve abandoned electoral reform. I call that out, which is why I donβt want us to make the same mistake.
