Daniel Kessler

I.e., they cheated with tall mountains

Looks like it's currently trying to extend north at Shenandoah NP. Would be meaningful if that continues east and gives Warrenton flakes, which I'd expect in 15 mins if it holds.

I think the record is 110-21 in favor of more winter. That's a .840 win pct for winter. Early spring is the Washington Generals of this tradition.

But with late winter mellowing more often, Phil's forecasts have been getting a bit more wrong: 30% the last 10 years compared to 39% historically.

DC is overdue for a cold February. 8 of the last 9 Februarys at DCA have been warmer than avg. Same at Dulles, with the Februarys in 2017 (44.8°F) and 2023 (44.6°F) being warmer than its avg March (44.2°F). With a Feb mean temp in mid 40s at *Dulles*, no groundhog needed to declare an early spring.

Looks like a long commute after sneaking past the Quebecers, going down I-81 from the border to US-15 by Harrisburg to I-270. It likely exited onto Rockville Pike and took that down to DC. It couldn't locate a bridge to cross from there, so Arlington is currently 40°F warmer.

Away from the tropical island of Reagan National, it apparently stayed under 20 today at BWI and Dulles, which both seemingly topped out at 19.9°F.

Breaking: Pam Bondi has ordered the arrest of Reality, last name "Liberal Bias".

Good. Next, please get the NWS to swap "enhanced" and "moderate" so that they can accurately forecast English vocabulary.

What low level are we talking?

No drought or D0?
EF-0 or EF-1?
Force 0 or force 1?
Isolated or scattered?
Marginally or slightly?
Tropical disturbance or depression?
Winter weather area or minor impact?

It's very possible at least one of the airports goes 3+ weeks below some number in the mid to upper 30s. Another disrupted vortex will happen, and after next week it could target the eastern US. I don't know if the groundhog will even bother trying this year.

Yes, it's the first time since Feb 1979 (7 days) that DCA will have freezing highs 6 straight days.

I thought last Jan was in contention. Upon researching, places like BWI stayed below 36 for 8 days (Jan 4–11): 33, 33, 31, 34, 31, 31, 34, & 35. Predictably, DCA was above freezing all those days 🙃

The answer seems to be yes ✓

With confirmation in Alexandria and Arlington, I wonder if southern MD and PG County south of US-50 are also seeing flakes. That'd be great if true, as those areas are also lighting up on the base reflectivity.

Either glass or the agents' equipment making hard contact with him

I'd advise using bullet points rather than hyphens when starting with numbers (esp cold ones), which in this case make 5 look like -5.

How about the 2012 remake?

New Epstein Island

Motto: Second verse, same as the first – a little bit louder and a little bit worse

Disagree with the index. I don't see a 30% chance of under 1" at this point. Too timid.

If DC was 50 miles farther south, this would already warrant a 10 on the snow potential index, given that threshold is just 1".

I'll continue to say it. At least half of the Democrats in Congress are not capable of leadership. It'll be as important to select good ones as it is to remove Schumer and Jeffries from those roles (and ideally from Congress altogether).

We're rooting for less cold air (unless u need to travel) thanks to what'll be a disrupted polar vortex advancing down to the northern Plains. If it's too aggressive, it'll push the generated snow from the Gulf too far south. The 12Z GFS was not a good sign.

What and when was your first call?

Agreed, it's time to stop framing Trump as a politician falling short on promises and recognize the comprehensive grift and assault for what it is.

Just a 6 on snow potential indicates this could disappoint by missing, which is what happened last Feb when it hit SE VA. I think this is looking better than that bs situation at least. Getting late enough to start outlining discrete scenarios, but still too early to predict totals.

Agreed. I think the batters would "square up" his pitches too easily.

The one other way it can shift without a tumultuous event is oil prices going up. Democrats would build at least on the economy and energy numbers. Those are likely the most important to Americans now, so other numbers might also improve indirectly from that issue.

The trends will only go so far with the current Democratic leadership. It's shifted left, but the only way it'll shift much further from current numbers is via tumultuous events like a hot war, market downturn, economic downturn (might be happening under the surface), or economic war with allies.

These numbers would be better without Schumer or Jeffries in leadership. It'll be important to replace them, and to replace them with someone who has the motivation and energy to play politics. I think about half of the Democrats in Congress aren't qualified for leadership.

So, that makes Wilmington, NC about as close to frozen tundra. 😆

"Snow" it goes...