Disentangling Causal Effects from Compositional Bias in Quasi-Experimental Designs
YouTube video by MZES Methods Bites
๐จ Content alert ๐จ
New recording and workshop materials published!
โก๏ธ When Events Change Samples: Disentangling Causal Effects from Compositional Bias in Quasi-Experimental Designs
๐ค
@klaramueller.bsky.social
(Uni Mannheim)
๐บ youtu.be/kYdDGgaI95w
๐๏ธ github.com/SocialScienc...
05.03.2026 07:56
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๐ socialsciencedatalab.mzes.uni-mannheim.de/page/events/
03.03.2026 14:06
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2026-03-11 | Input talk | Andreas Kรผpfer (TU Darmstadt & University of Birmingham)
Politics in Action: Studying Multimodal Data from Local Meetings to National Parliaments
Hybrid event [A5, 6, Room A231 + Zoom]
Mรคrz 11, 2026, 13:45-15:15
Abstract
The analysis of multimodal political communication enables political scientists to study how politicians and parties behave in previously untapped ways. While large volumes of audiovisual data are increasingly available, these data are typically unstructured and vary substantially in quality, requiring robust and carefully designed processing pipelines. This talk guides through the challenges and opportunities of analysing political video data across institutional contexts. Analysing videos from local political meetings, including US school boards and state supreme courts, allows the generation of features such as transcriptions, gendered speech shares, and agenda items. However, the often semi-professional production quality of such recordings limits the systematic use of visual information. By contrast, legislative debate recordings are typically standardised and post-edited, enabling the leverage of visual features such as eye contact seeking to study the emergence of dominant behaviour during parliamentary speech. Scaling multimodal processing and feature extraction workflows across heterogeneous institutional contexts is, therefore, crucial. It enables the systematic study of political communication across levels of government and over longer time periods.
Presenter
Andreas Kรผpfer is a Postdoctoral Researcher in the DFG-funded project "Analysing Legislative Politics with Aligned Text, Audio and Image Data" at the Institute for Political Science of the Technical University of Darmstadt, holding a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Mannheim. He works at the intersection of Data Science and Political Science. His research focuses on (multimodal) political communication, combining computational with tradiโฆ
๐จ Upcoming: "Politics in Action: Studying Multimodal Data from Local Meetings to National Parliaments"
๐ค @ankuepfer.bsky.social (TU Darmstadt & University of Birmingham)
๐๏ธ Wed, March 11, 13:45-15:15 CET
๐บ Register for the live stream: us02web.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
03.03.2026 14:06
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๐ Join us *today* at 13:45 CEST for the talk 'When Events Change Samples: Disentangling Causal Effects from Compositional Bias in Quasi-Experimental Designs' by
@klaramueller.bsky.social (University of Mannheim)
โฌ๏ธ Zoom link and details below
25.02.2026 10:44
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๐ socialsciencedatalab.mzes.uni-mannheim.de/page/events/
18.02.2026 10:23
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2026-02-25 | Input talk | Klara Mรผller (University of Mannheim)
When Events Change Samples: Disentangling Causal Effects from Compositional Bias in Quasi-Experimental Designs
Hybrid event [A5, 6, Room A231 + Zoom]
Februar 25, 2026, 13:45-15:15
Abstract
From political psychology, we know that salient political events can shape political attitudes and behavior. In studying such event effects, quasi-experimental designs, such as the unexpected event during survey design (UESD), have become increasingly popular. To allow for causal identification, these designs rest on quite strict assumptions, one of which is the random assignment of respondents to the pre- and post-event sample and the comparability of these samples. From survey methodology, however, we also know that external events can affect who responds to surveys. If event-triggered shifts in survey participation and sample composition are related to outcome variables of interest, causal estimates of an eventโs effect may be biased. This problem is particularly challenging when compositional shifts involve unobserved or even unobservable factors. In this talk, I provide intuition for how such compositional bias can threaten causal conclusions in quasi-experimental settings. I present a framework to disentangle an eventโs โtrueโ causal effect from compositional bias, with a particular focus on the UESD approach. The framework outlines practical strategies to adjust for observable imbalances and extends sensitivity analyses to assess how strong unobserved confounders would have to be to change or undermine substantive causal conclusions. I illustrate the approach using the rally-around-the-flag effect following the 2015 Charlie Hebdo attacks in France, as well as replications of published UESD studies on terrorist events and rally-style outcomes. By addressing both observable and unobservable sources of bias, this framework enhances causal inference and strengthens the credibility of public opinion research in dโฆ
๐จ Upcoming: "When Events Change Samples: Disentangling Causal Effects from Compositional Bias in Quasi-Experimental Designs"
๐ค Klara Mรผller (University of Mannheim)
๐๏ธ Wed, February 25, 13:45-15:15 CET
๐บ Register for the live stream: us02web.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
18.02.2026 10:23
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Presenters of the SSDL Spring 2026 Event Series:
๐ค @klaramueller.bsky.social (University of Mannheim)
๐ค @ankuepfer.bsky.social (TU Darmstadt & University of Birmingham)
๐ค Leah von der Heyde (GESIS)
๐ค Lion Behrens (Data Scientist & Independent Researcher)
09.02.2026 13:10
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Upcoming
2026-05-13 | Input talk | Lion Behrens (Data Scientist & Independent Researcher)
Modeling Causal Heterogeneity with Machine Learning
more
2026-04-22 | Input talk | Leah von der Heyde (GESIS)
AIn't Nothing But a Survey? Using Large Language Models for Coding Open-Ended Survey Responses
more
2026-03-11 | Input talk | Andreas Kรผpfer (TU Darmstadt & University of Birmingham)
Politics in Action: Studying Multimodal Data from Local Meetings to National Parliaments
more
2026-02-25 | Input talk | Klara Mรผller (University of Mannheim)
When Events Change Samples: Disentangling Causal Effects from Compositional Bias in Quasi-Experimental Designs
more
โถ๏ธ Social Science Data Lab: Spring 2026 Events
Four input talks by great researchers (see below โคต๏ธ)!
๐๏ธ Details & Zoom:
socialsciencedatalab.mzes.uni-mannheim.de/page/events/
๐ฅ Organizers:
@rubac.bsky.social,
@denis-cohen.bsky.social and Alexander Wenz
09.02.2026 13:10
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What the Digital Services Act (DSA) Means for Researcher Access to Digital Platforms
YouTube video by MZES Methods Bites
๐จ Content alert ๐จ
New recording published!
โก๏ธBrave New Data Access World: What the Digital Services Act (DSA) Means for Researcher Access to Digital Platforms
๐ค @dscheykopp.bsky.social (Weizenbaum Institute Berlin)
๐บ youtu.be/8gf2mjIs5j8
16.12.2025 09:30
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๐ Join us *today* at 13:45 CEST for the talk 'Brave New Data Access World: What the Digital Services Act (DSA) Means for Researcher Access to Digital Platforms' by
@dscheykopp.bsky.social
(Weizenbaum Institute Berlin)
โฌ๏ธ Zoom link and details below
03.12.2025 08:00
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๐ socialsciencedatalab.mzes.uni-mannheim.de/page/events/
26.11.2025 10:12
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Brave New Data Access World: What the Digital Services Act (DSA) Means for Researcher Access to Digital Platforms
Hybrid event [A5, 6, Room A231 + Zoom]
Dezember 03, 2025, 13:45-15:15
Abstract
The European Unionโs Digital Services Act (DSA) marks a turning point for the study of digital platforms by establishing a legal framework for researcher access to platform data, including from major social media companies. Article 40 of the DSA outlines how researchers can request such access, opening unprecedented possibilities for empirical investigations into the digital public sphere. Yet, the practical implementation of this right to data access raises important challenges. Questions of eligibility, the scope of accessible data, and the ethical and technical standards required for secure processing are central to understanding what this new regime will mean in practice. This talk provides an overview of the DSAโs data-access provisions, explains their relevance for the research community, and discusses what opportunitiesโand limitationsโemerge for studying systemic risks, algorithmic effects, and platform governance. It reflects on early experiences with Article 40 implementation and considers what it will take to build a sustainable infrastructure for independent, policy-relevant research on digital platforms in Europe.
Presenter
Jakob Ohme leads the interdisciplinary "Digital News Dynamics" research group at the Weizenbaum Institute in Berlin, exploring the impact and dissemination of professional journalism on digital platforms versus other sources like influencers or AI. His work emphasizes the changes digital and mobile communications bring to news consumption and political engagement, particularly across different generations. Jakob Ohme is dedicated to advancing digital methodologies in political communication and journalism research, notably through the innovative use of digital trace data. He's also a Co-Principal Investigator in the #DSA40 Collaboratory, focโฆ
๐จ Upcoming: "Brave New Data Access World: What the Digital Services Act (DSA) Means for Researcher Access to Digital Platforms"
๐ค @dscheykopp.bsky.social (Weizenbaum Institute Berlin)
๐๏ธ Wed, December 3, 13:45-15:15 CET
๐บ Register for the live stream: us02web.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
26.11.2025 10:12
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Large Language Models for Social Research: Potentials and Challenges
YouTube video by MZES Methods Bites
๐จ Content alert ๐จ
New recording and workshop materials published!
โก๏ธ Large Language Models for Social Research: Potentials and Challenges
๐ค @indiiigo.bsky.social (University of Mannheim)
๐บ youtu.be/p5wPJHK-74M
๐๏ธ github.com/SocialScienc...
06.11.2025 14:20
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๐ Join us *today* at 13:45 CEST for the talk 'What Shapes Voter Perceptions of Election Polls? The Impact of Partisanship and Visual Design' by
@eliaskoch.bsky.social (Hertie School)
โฌ๏ธ Zoom link and details below
05.11.2025 09:40
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๐ socialsciencedatalab.mzes.uni-mannheim.de/page/events
29.10.2025 10:40
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What Shapes Voter Perceptions of Election Polls? The Impact of Partisanship and Visual Design
Hybrid event [A5, 6, Room A231 + Zoom]
November 05, 2025, 13:45-15:15
Abstract
Election polls are a central feature of modern electoral campaigns, providing voters with information that can guide their decisions. Yet, voters are often confronted with many polls showing volatile or conflicting outcomes, and media outlets present these polls in very different ways. This raises two key questions: (1) How do voters judge the trustworthiness of a pollโs results? and (2) How does the way a poll is presented affect these perceptions? I present experimental evidence from two large-scale studies in Germany. Together, they show that both the content of a poll and the way it is presented influence voter perceptions, offering new insights into how individuals navigate modern campaigns environments.
Presenter(s)
Elias Koch is a Doctoral Researcher at the Research Training Group DYNAMICS (HU Berlin/Hertie School) and a Research Associate at the Hertie School in Berlin. His research explores party competition and political behaviour in established democracies, with a particular focus on shifting public opinion landscapes.
๐จ Upcoming: "What Shapes Voter Perceptions of Election Polls? The Impact of Partisanship and Visual Design"
๐ค @eliaskoch.bsky.social (Hertie School)
๐๏ธ Wed, November 5, 13:45-15:15 CET
๐บ Register for the live stream: us02web.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
29.10.2025 10:40
๐ 4
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๐ Join us *today* at 13:45 CEST for the talk 'Large Language Models for Social Research: Potentials and Challenges' by
@indiiigo.bsky.social
(University of Mannheim)
โฌ๏ธ Zoom link and details below
22.10.2025 07:48
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Large Language Models for Social Research: Potentials and Challenges
Hybrid event [A5, 6, Room A231 + Zoom]
Oktober 22, 2025, 13:45-15:15
Abstract
Large Language Models (LLMs) have the potential to revolutionize the social sciencesโfor example, by accelerating content analysis or enabling realistic social simulations. In this workshop, I will discuss how LLMs can be applied and audited for social science applications, including the generation of synthetic survey responses and content analysis. I will also address how biases in LLMs can hinder these applications and explore ways to better surface and understand these biases. Finally, I will present a hands-on use case demonstrating how LLMs can be guided using demographic personas for both content analysis and simulated surveys.
Presenter(s)
Indira Sen is a Junior Faculty member at the University of Mannheimโs Business School in the Chair of Data Science for the Social and Economic Sciences. Her work lies at the intersection of NLP and Computational Social Science, specifically in developing and evaluating representative and equitable language technology, including Large Language Models.
๐จ Upcoming: "Large Language Models for Social Research: Potentials and Challenges"
๐ค Indira Sen (University of Mannheim)
๐๏ธ Wed, October 22, 13:45-15:15 CET
๐บ Register for the live stream: us02web.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
๐ socialsciencedatalab.mzes.uni-mannheim.de/page/events/
15.10.2025 10:02
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GitHub - SocialScienceDataLab/roundtable-developments-LargeScale: Roundtable Discussion: New Developments in Large-Scale Survey Data in Germany by Claudia Schmiedeberg, Pablo Christmann, Stefanie Wolt...
Roundtable Discussion: New Developments in Large-Scale Survey Data in Germany by Claudia Schmiedeberg, Pablo Christmann, Stefanie Wolter, Michael Bergmann, Arne Bethmann - GitHub - SocialScienceDa...
๐จ Content alert ๐จ
New workshop materials published!
โก๏ธ Roundtable Discussion: New Developments in Large-Scale Survey Data in Germany
๐ค Claudia Schmiedeberg, Pablo Christmann, Stefanie Wolter, Michael Bergmann, Arne Bethmann
๐๏ธ github.com/SocialScienc...
02.10.2025 13:47
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๐ Join us *today* at 13:45 CEST for the talk 'Roundtable Discussion: New Developments in Large-Scale Survey Data in Germany' by Claudia Schmiedeberg, Pablo Christmann, Stefanie Wolter, Michael Bergmann, Arne Bethmann
โฌ๏ธ Zoom link and details below
24.09.2025 09:34
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๐ socialsciencedatalab.mzes.uni-mannheim.de/page/events/
18.09.2025 14:18
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Roundtable Discussion: New Developments in Large-Scale Survey Data in Germany
Hybrid event [A5, 6, Room A231 + Zoom]
September 24, 2025, 13:45-15:15
Abstract
The roundtable brings together researchers from leading institutes and survey programs in Germany including the German Longitudinal Environmental Study (GLEN), the Family Research and Demographic Panel (FreDA), the Research Data Center of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), and the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). The discussion will focus on current innovations, challenges, and opportunities in large-scale survey data from the data producersโ and usersโ perspective.
Presenter(s)
Claudia Schmiedeberg is a postdoctoral researcher at the Department of Sociology at LMU Munich. Her research focuses on survey methodology, environmental topics, and couple relationships.
Pablo Christmann is the project coordinator of FReDA โ The German Family Demography Panel Study and a postdoctoral researcher at GESIS. His main research interests include political attitudes as well as survey methodology and methods.
Stefanie Wolter is a senior researcher at the Research Data Center of the Federal Employment Agency. She is project head of the Linked Personnel Panel, and responsible for linking enterprise and establishment data. Her research focuses on flexible work and within-firm inequality.
Michael Bergmann is a survey methodologist with a doctorate in social sciences from the University of Mannheim. As part of a joint appointment by htw saar and SBI, he works as head of the Survey Methodology department for the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) and as professor of survey methodology at the Faculty of Social Sciences. His research interests include methods for improving the quality of survey data, the investigation of the effects of different survey modes on data quality in panel studies, and the analysis of interviewer behavior. In terms of content, he is primarily โฆ
๐จ Upcoming: "Roundtable Discussion: New Developments in Large-Scale Survey Data in Germany"
๐ค Claudia Schmiedeberg, Pablo Christmann, Stefanie Wolter, Michael Bergmann, Arne Bethmann
๐๏ธ Wed, September 24, 13:45-15:15 CET
๐บ Register for the live stream: us02web.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
18.09.2025 14:18
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๐ Join us *today* at 13:45 CEST for the talk 'Assessing the Reproducibility of Observational Social Research' by
@lschaechtele.bsky.social (LMU Munich)
โฌ๏ธ Zoom link and details below
10.09.2025 06:56
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Assessing the Reproducibility of Observational Social Research
Hybrid event [A5, 6, Room A231 + Zoom]
September 10, 2025, 13:45-15:15
Abstract
Reproducibility โ i.e., the extent to which results are consistent when re-running the same code on the same data โ is a minimum requirement for credible empirical research. However, as prior audits have tended to look at selective samples, only little is known so far about its extent in the observational social sciences. In this input talk, I present insights from a large-scale reproducibility assessment of published social science papers that use data from the European Social Survey (ESS). Starting from an initial pool of 1,206 articles, we obtained research code for 385 papers and conducted a standardized reproducibility assessment on a random sample of 100. I will present insights into our method and our results, highlight common hurdles and pitfalls we encountered, and conclude by discussing low-cost measures that could help improve reproducibility at scale.
Presenter(s)
Laura Schรคchtele is a PhD candidate in Sociology at the LMU Munich and part of the DFG-funded meta-scientific research program META-REP. She holds a masterโs degree in Sociology from the LMU Munich and has been a visiting researcher at the Meta-Research Center at Tilburg University. In her dissertation, she investigates the links between academic incentive structures, researchersโ strategic behavior, and scientific transparency. Her broader research interests include the sociology of science, social inequality, and quantitative methods of empirical social research
๐จ Upcoming: "Assessing the Reproducibility of Observational Social Research"
๐ค
@lschaechtele.bsky.social (LMU Munich)
๐๏ธ Wed, September 10, 13:45-15:15 CET
๐บ Register for the live stream: us02web.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
๐ socialsciencedatalab.mzes.uni-mannheim.de/page/events/
02.09.2025 15:07
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Presenters of the SSDL Fall 2025 Event Series (2/2):
๐ค @eliaskoch.bsky.social (Hertie School)
๐ค @dscheykopp.bsky.social (Weizenbaum Institute Berlin)
๐ค @dingdingpeng.the100.ci (Leipzig University)
02.09.2025 15:02
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Presenters of the SSDL Fall 2025 Event Series (1/2):
๐ค
@lschaechtele.bsky.social (LMU Munich)
๐ค Claudia Schmiedeberg, Pablo Christmann, Stefanie Wolter, Michael Bergmann, Arne Bethmann
๐ค Indira Sen (University of Mannheim)
02.09.2025 15:02
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โถ๏ธ Social Science Data Lab: Fall 2025 Events
Six input talks by great researchers (see below โคต๏ธ)!
๐๏ธ Details & Zoom:
socialsciencedatalab.mzes.uni-mannheim.de/page/events/
๐ฅ Organizers:
@rubac.bsky.social,
@denis-cohen.bsky.social and Alexander Wenz
02.09.2025 15:02
๐ 10
๐ 4
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Forecasting the German Federal Election 2025 - Different Modelling Approaches
YouTube video by MZES Methods Bites
๐จ Content alert ๐จ
New recording and workshop materials published!
โก๏ธ Forecasting the German Federal Election 2025 - Different Modelling Approaches
๐ค @hannahrajski.bsky.social (Uni Mannheim) & @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social (Witten/Herdecke Uni)
๐บ youtu.be/iQXUQ3NsKsk
๐๏ธ github.com/SocialScienc...
17.07.2025 05:45
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Analyzing Survey Data with Weights โ A Practical Introduction
YouTube video by MZES Methods Bites
๐จ Content alert ๐จ
New recording and workshop materials published!
โก๏ธ Analyzing Survey Data with Weights โ A Practical Introduction
๐ค Stefan Zins (Institute for Employment Research)
๐บ youtu.be/uAHYkvoWY-Q
๐๏ธ github.com/SocialScienc...
28.05.2025 07:58
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CANCELLED: Unfortunately, @indiiigo.bsky.social SSDL talk tomorrow has been cancelled for this semester. The talk will take place next semester instead. We will share the new date and details as soon as they are confirmed.
๐ Stay updated: socialsciencedatalab.mzes.uni-mannheim.de/page/events
27.05.2025 08:03
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