My current prediction stands that by Sunday the carriers will be retreating.
06.03.2026 18:54
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I built an app for predictions like that!
06.03.2026 18:52
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There are days when I dream of being back in basic training in the army, where the most complex thing I had to stress about was a company gear check, and a missing firing pin.
06.03.2026 18:52
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Jos nyt jollekin oli epäselvää niin minulta irtoaa heti ääni liittovaltion puolesta.
EU:lla on riittävästi historiallista ja poliittista kulttuuripääomaa luoda uuden sukupolven liittovaltio.
Coalition of the Willing tarjoaa keinon päästä liikkeelle.
05.03.2026 17:08
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The autistic fixation on kinetic metrics (sortie rates, kill ratios, munition expenditures) obscures the fact that modern wars are won or lost in the political and informational domains.
Will America win every battle on their way to lose the war? Again?
05.03.2026 17:05
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The American military analysts are rather autistic in their determination to look at the kinetic effects in complete isolation from the outcomes.
As a result they continue being dumbfounded about they can win every battle on a way to defeat in every war since WW2, with the exception of Gulf War.
05.03.2026 16:07
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If AWS starts feeling sluggish it could be because the EMEA regions around Iran are being migrated to deal with damage from Iranian drones.
05.03.2026 10:18
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Falsify.app promotes critical and transparent thinking: it helps you make falsifiable predictions, learn from them, and make sense of the world.
I've just launched it:
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05.03.2026 07:39
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That speech is written by Claude, I’m pretty sure.
04.03.2026 17:43
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Prediction • M52Qzf00Gtd19uMuQgvk • Falsify
Open this prediction on Falsify to view the full claim, rationale, AI assessment, and discussion.
falsify.app/p/M52Qzf00Gt...
Iran to strike desalination plants — The plants provide 60% of fresh water in region, turning them into strategic targets to apply pressure
04.03.2026 14:49
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04.03.2026 12:49
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Spanish Prime Minister following Trump's threats: "We will not be complicit in something that is bad for the world and that is also contrary to our values and interests, simply out of fear of reprisals" #Iran #Trump #tariffs
04.03.2026 09:22
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Da moon.
03.03.2026 17:33
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🚨 BREAKING: Macron announces increase in France's deployed nuclear warheads.
He adds that France will no longer communicate about how many warheads France is deploying.
This is a major change in France's nuclear posture.
02.03.2026 14:28
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One of the hallmarks of the US power system is their blindness to how detrimental it is to consider military outcomes insulated from political outcomes.
If an operation creates a power vacuum, it’s not a success.
You can win every battle and still lose the war.
Again.
02.03.2026 08:38
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was just watching this - at least can say we saw the first.
bsky.app/profile/altw...
28.02.2026 18:20
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Never forget who you’re fighting for.
28.02.2026 12:04
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28.02.2026 15:04
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Looks like Iran has decided on three types of targets: US military bases in the region (Bahrain & others), oil infrastructure (eastern Saudi Arabia) and, perhaps most escalatory of all, densely populated urban areas to maximise economic and political impact (Dubai).
28.02.2026 17:22
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Tiniest violins for the many European tax exiles and gangsters who never quite understood how much of a geopolitical house of cards the UAE is
28.02.2026 17:02
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Tax breaks for his rich buddies...
27.02.2026 15:43
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I served in the military for 20 years. Afterwards, I devoted another 25 years directly supporting the military, as contractor and civilian.
For those serving now, you are either participating in or supporting an illegal war. The orders to commit were illegal. You have an obligation to resist.
28.02.2026 17:05
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xkcd 2170 "coordinate precision"
28.02.2026 16:00
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Update: The total number of little girls killed at an elementary school in Minab, Iran, by the US and Israel has risen to 51.
The entire community is devastated, families destroyed.
28.02.2026 16:01
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My line on BBCr4 Today on the Iran strikes was this. Last June there were intensive US/Iran talks under way. Aborted by Israeli strikes on Iran which US joined. I think this is similar. The US-Iran-Oman talks seemed to be going well. Netanyahu preempted, and Trump felt he had to follow 1/5
28.02.2026 10:14
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Prediction (by Dec 2026):
ICE/DHS/NG occupy voting stations in GA/AZ/MI/PA/WI; voter suppression widespread.
WH rejects non-GOP results, SCOTUS ordered to overturn via “emergency.”
100+ opposition arrested/removed.
If true, US midterms mark shift from functioning to performative democracy
28.02.2026 11:37
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Would it be possible for Iran to take out a carrier?
They’re one of the leading drone manufacturers. I wonder if it’s possible they could swarm the group defenses?
28.02.2026 10:13
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