A February poll from Colombia shows that support for civil unions between homosexual couples is falling and consistently so. Its one of a growing number of polls showing support for gay rights slipping.
Agradezco la oportunidad de hablar sobre la incertidumbre económica en el mundo y las oportunidades y desafíos para América Latina en un contexto global cada vez más proteccionista con Bloomberg Línea.
www.bloomberglinea.com/latinoameric...
The US's weighted average tariff rate (WATR) went from 2.3% in 2024 to 25.5% following the "liberation day" announcement. For context, Mercosur's WATR is 9.5%.
Mercosur va a tener el mismo arancel que Chile, Perú y Colombia, a pesar de que ellos tienen un TLC con EEUU
Mercosur will have the same tariff as Chile, Peru, and Colombia, despite the fact that they have a free trade agreement with the U.S
Dije a @lanacioncom.bsky.social en una larga entrevista que "El ancla principal de cualquier país democrático en desarrollo es tener una justicia independiente y fuerte. Sin eso, es difícil mantener un sendero de crecimiento y desarrollo”
www.lanacion.com.ar/conversacion...
Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose
"none of Petro’s original cabinet remains in office."
www.ft.com/content/28b9...
Argentina's lower house votes to approve Milei's decree to enter into a new IMF program. The Senate can vote against the decree, but it will not void the decree as both chambers need to vote down the decree.
"Johannes Kaiser is the novelty, but it is important to mention that he is not just a right-wing candidate. He represents rejection, indignation; he is the candidate of anti-politics, of anger."
www.ex-ante.cl/roberto-izik...
Lula has seen his net approval rating crash between December and February, according to the latest IPEC poll. It's now -15%, this is a ditch that looks all but impossible to recover from. Next year's election increasingly looks like the opposition's to lose.
The global shift towards a libertarian right is continuing apace with Johannes Kaiser surging in the polls to contest first place with front-runner from the centre-right Chile Vamos coalition, Evelyn Matthei.
Michelle Bachelet bows out of the presidential race. This followed from the resignation of former interior minister, Carolina Tohá. This paves the way for Tohá to become the most likley candidate for the left-wing ticket to succeed Boric
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”
I told Reuters "Uruguay will be under a lot of pressure from the US to limit Chinese investment in strategic sectors like infrastructure and telecommunications" & the govt will need to "exercise its diplomatic muscle" with the anti-China & protectionist Trump admin.
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
An image that is hard to imagine in most democracies today. The winner of the presidential election in Uruguay, Yamandú Orsi, hugs his opponent, Alvaro Delgado, on the day of Orsi's inauguration.
Dije a @afpfr.bsky.social "Reducir el déficit fiscal es importante para mantener la calificación de grado de inversión de Uruguay controlando el crecimiento de la deuda pública como porcentaje del PIB, que ha crecido desde 2019"
www.swissinfo.ch/spa/uruguay-...
www.swissinfo.ch/spa/uruguay-...
Voters in the region are rewarding populist leaders for real short-term policy results, but they are discounting the likely long-term downside consequences of weaker checks & balances.
Dije a @lanacioncom.bsky.social "los sistemas de partidos a nivel global 'no logran representar adecuadamente las demandas de una población cada vez más polarizada, lo que crea un terreno fértil para el auge del populismo.'"
www.lanacion.com.ar/el-mundo/la-...
The 2024 Democracy Index by the Economist Intelligence: EIU is out. You can download a copy of the report here: shorturl.at/MFt0t
I am grateful to have contributed to make this report possible, being the lead for Latin America and the Caribbean.
Monthly economic data indicates an impressive V-shaped economic recovery in Argentina for 2024, accompanied by disinflation. Growth will likely strengthen further when currency controls are lifted this year.
According to the latest monthly economic activity indicator for December, Argentina's GDP contracted by 1.8%.
This is significantly less than what consensus had expected at 2.7%.
This is a big win for Milei's bet on expansionary austerity.
Early draft map. I may write more about this tomorrow.
🇷🇺🌐🇺🇦 The UN vote reveals most Latin American gvts are in 4 buckets:
Liberals: 🇨🇱🇬🇹🇲🇽🇵🇪🇺🇾
BRICS multipolar: 🇧🇷🇨🇴🇨🇺🇭🇳
Trump multipolar: 🇦🇷🇨🇷🇸🇻
Pro-Russia: 🇭🇹🇳🇮
🇺🇸Trump says he will consider VAT as a tariff & will incorporate it in the reciprocal tariffs, which will hit LATAM hard:
🇺🇾 22%
🇦🇷 21%
🇨🇱 19%
🇨🇴 19%
🇩🇴 18%
🇵🇪 18%
🇭🇳 15%
🇳🇮 15%
🇲🇽 16%
🇧🇴 13%
🇨🇷 13%
🇸🇻 13%
🇪🇨 12%
🇬🇹 12%
🇵🇾 10%
🇵🇦 7%
🇨🇱Interesting poll in Chile about the views & voting intension of immigrants.
*⃣59% say they will vote for a right-wing candidate (Matthei, Kast or Kaiser)
*⃣Disapproval of Boric's government is much higher than the average at 75%
www.ex-ante.cl/panel-ciudad...
According to the latest Cadem poll, half of Chileans have a favourable opinion of Trump. Why? A reason seems to be an overwhelming majority of Chileans agree with Trump's policies clamping down on undocumented migration & militarization of the border.
There is no doubt that Colombia will not be able to fully replace US demand, but it will also likely accelerate Petro's drive to deepen political and economic ties with China. This would only serve to aggravate tensions, but it's also a trade off the US should be aware of.
Petro says he will impose retaliatory tariffs on the US:
"Me informan que usted pone a nuestro fruto del trabajo humano 50% de arancel para entrar a EEUU, yo hago lo mismo."
Despite the liberalisation of the airline sector in Argentina under Milei that was assumed by critics to undermine the national flag carrier, Aerolíneas Argentinas, the carrier flew a record number of pax in December.
www.lanacion.com.ar/economia/rec...
