The predictable regional fallout has begun from America's reckless war of choice against Iran.
New roundtable from @tcambanis.bsky.social @peterjsalisbury.bsky.social @sajadjiyad.bsky.social @yaelmiz.bsky.social @abujamajem.com
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Hezbollah escalated a war with Israel that had never ended, despite a nominal ceasefire.
Renewed fighting will punish Lebanese civilians, but will probably also further weaken Hezbollah.
@abujamajem.com in new roundtable
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Hey @tcambanis.bsky.social thanks for being on the pod w/ @petedominick.bsky.social. More newsy & clippy bits for your ears, plus this amazing expert guest for Wednesday world lunacy! Press play! standupwithpete.com/1547-prof-th...
Thank you, trying my best in this deranged historical moment.
Enduring instability, disorder, and needless death will be the predictable consequences.
American leaders have no good choices, but ought to focus single-mindedly on stopping the war.
Contributions from @peterjsalisbury.bsky.social @abujamajem.com @sajadjiyad.bsky.social @yaelmiz.bsky.social
Already just a few days into the conflict, the law of unintended consequences has kicked in.
New @centuryintl.bsky.social roundtable features frontline analysis to spotlight the most clear and present dangers.
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We were joined by @tcambanis.bsky.social discussing his article at @centuryintl.bsky.social, “Attacking Iran Is a Guaranteed Disaster” as well as how the war has expanded into Lebanon. soundcloud.com/user-8304426...
New podcast just dropped with @abujamajem.com on harms, dangers and folly of the US-Israel war on Iran, as seen from Beirut
War is a tool only of last resort.
New commentary for @centuryintl.bsky.social
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Congress needs to demand that Trump make a case why Iran poses a critical national security threat;
Vigorously and publicly debate that case;
And finally, vote (hopefully against a war) in a roll call so every American knows where their representatives stand.
An American war of choice in Iran will unleash countless new threats and dangers, and leave the entire world worse off.
U.S. decision-makers need to snap out of their trance before unleashing another generation of forever wars.
Listen to Order from Ashes wherever you get podcasts
thecenturyfoundation.podbean.com/e/iran-prepa...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=LAgn...
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open.spotify.com/episode/4XE0...
War with Iran would be extremely dangerous.
Naysan Rafati from @crisisgroup.org outlines the risks, and the view from Iran, on the Order from Ashes podcast
We were lucky to get in on a break day from the Duterte proceedings.
Ended up with a free morning in the Netherlands and visited the ICC.
Idealism, universalism and persistence of staff and prosecutors inspired me.
They’re working under threat of US sanctions to hold war criminals accountable.
I left determined to strive, with them, for a more just world.
Don’t be fooled by bluster about supposedly reborn American power.
Thanks to reckless threats, alliance shredding, and wars of choice, America is weaker than at any point since the Great War broke out in 1914.
And all of us, across the world, are worse off for it.
END
The last time the world collectively undertook this approach, we ended up suffering two world wars.
Only then did the great powers decide that compromise and diplomacy work better than fighting it out for maximum short-term profit.
Today, every belligerent at every level is emulating Trump, Putin and Xi, looking to maximize individual advantage, the consequences for others be damned.
America is now a leading co-conspirator in the spread of conflict and authoritarianism.
In the western hemisphere, the US wants to see more violence and military force.
Trump has accelerated a worldwide collapse into lawless competition for power and spheres of influence.
The list of horrors is long: genocides in Gaza and Sudan, world war-sized wars in Ukraine, and Congo, and deadly conflicts flaring and reflaring in Ethiopia, Yemen, and elsewhere.
Trump’s transactional and trigger-happy approach has further emboldened Russia and China.
He has savaged alliances and international understandings that limited some conflicts and made it possible to resolve others.
Since Trump took office the world has experienced a terrifying tide of war that threatens to engulf all.
Trump’s foreign policy has been a disaster. In tonight’s #SOTU he’ll spin a fantasy about American power.
In reality, Trump’s policies have made the world a much more dangerous and unstable place for all.
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If @aoc.bsky.social's comments on the hypocrisy and then dismantling of the international liberal order at Munich piqued your curiosity, listen to @nicholasdanfort.bsky.social.
He gives the historical sweep of that order, why it hit a wall, and what a better replacement might look like.
How do the Houthis get their weapons?
Join us Tuesday 10 February at 10 am to hear what what
@peterjsalisbury.bsky.social & team learned about the astonishing sprint from dhows to drones in Yemen — and beyond.
Fresh from a trip to the Gulf, @peterjsalisbury.bsky.social reports on the risks of two emboldened regional powers: Saudi Arabia, flush with oil money, and Yemen's Houthis, flush with drone tech.
Bring back Congressional war powers!
Illegal, secret, or undeclared wars have become the norm in the US.
But Congress can — and should — reassert its power to decide when America goes to war.
Order from Ashes episode 100 with Brian Finucane.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/o...
Bring back Congressional war powers!
Illegal, secret, or undeclared wars have become the norm in the US, but Congress can — and should — reassert its power to decide when America goes to war.
Order from Ashes episode 100 with @bcfinucane.bsky.social
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/o...
Congress can and should decide when America goes to war. @bcfinucane.bsky.social explains how.
Order from Ashes episode 100, “On War Powers, Congress Is MIA”
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/o...
open.spotify.com/episode/0j7g...
thecenturyfoundation.podbean.com/e/on-war-pow...
graph tracking democratic backsliding is occuring more quickly in the US than elsewhere.
New from me: It is not just that the US is experiencing democratic backsliding. Authoritarianism has emerged more quickly than in other benchmark countries.
This graph from John Burn-Murdoch sums it up. 🧵
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/autocracy-...
