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Paolo Fornaro

@paolofornaro

Researcher at Labore. Interested in nowcasting, machine learning and big data, productivity analysis. Wannabe rockstar and videogame geek.

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22.10.2023
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Latest posts by Paolo Fornaro @paolofornaro

This is all so bizarre...

06.03.2026 06:21 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

In the House of Lords today, a government minister refused to rule this out.

To be clear, this would amount to legalising theft. It would fly in the face of public opinion on what is fair, and would mean a surrender of British creatives' work by this Labour government.

3/4

02.03.2026 15:43 👍 1053 🔁 220 💬 1 📌 0
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Which Country Should Design U.S. Industrial Policy? The decision Americans must make about industrial policy is whether policies that drive the nature and direction of the U.S. economy should be designed at home or abroad by its trade partners. In a hy...

6/6
To put it another way, this means that rather than allowing European policymakers to decide what is in Europe's best interest, Europe should allow foreign policymakers to decide, as I explain below.
carnegieendowment.org/china-financ...

24.02.2026 07:36 👍 17 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0
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It’s the most wonderful time of the year…

19.02.2026 16:29 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Kuva huijausviesti

Kuva huijausviesti

Varoitus! ⚠️ Tilastokeskuksen nimissä on lähetetty viime päivinä huijausviestejä yritysvastaajille. Viestin otsikkona on "Tietopyyntö tilastollista analyysiä varten". Viestiin ei tule vastata, eikä sen linkkejä klikata. Tilastokeskuksesta tulevat viestit tunnistaa lähettäjän stat.fi-osoitteesta.

13.02.2026 06:37 👍 25 🔁 16 💬 0 📌 0
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Tilastokeskuksen tilastotuotantoa lakkautus- ja supistusuhan alla | Tilastokeskus Tilastokeskuksen määrärahoihin kohdistuu hallituskaudella lähes 6 miljoonan euron leikkaukset, mikä on noin 10 prosenttia vuoden 2023 määrärahoista. Henkilöstön määrä on supistumassa hallituskaudella ...

Aikamoinen lista tärkeitä tilastoja lakkautusuhan alla Tilastokeskuksen määrärahojen leikkausten vuoksi. Muun muassa väestöennuste, asuntojen vuokrat, teollisuuden uudet tilaukset ja työtaistelutilasto ja moni muu.

Ei ole löysää, mistä leikata, vaan tärkeää tietoa katoaa.

stat.fi/fi/uutinen/T...

12.02.2026 11:13 👍 93 🔁 23 💬 5 📌 3
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This morning on @cnbc.com, B of A said the “K-shaped” economy is increasingly about not just the split between high and low-income — but high and MIDDLE-income consumers.

11.02.2026 12:28 👍 477 🔁 183 💬 27 📌 28

2/6
And as Marriner Eccles, FDR's Fed chairman, explained in the 1930s, this creates a dangerous illusion. The extent of business profits depends almost wholly on the purchasing power of ordinary people, which in turn depends on wages.

11.02.2026 05:03 👍 11 🔁 3 💬 1 📌 0
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China’s future growth rate could drop to 2.5% without market reforms: economist China will struggle to keep growth above 4 per cent unless there is a ‘strong turnaround’ in productivity and consumer spending, economist warns.

1/11
SCMP: "China’s potential growth rate could fall to about 2.5 per cent in the coming years unless action is taken, prominent Chinese economist Zhou Tianyong has warned."
sc.mp/itwrt?utm_so...

10.02.2026 10:40 👍 26 🔁 8 💬 1 📌 3

Genuinely curious and ignorant on the matter, why wouldn’t Halla-aho want to be chairman?

07.02.2026 10:52 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

It’s called R

06.02.2026 16:36 👍 98 🔁 11 💬 7 📌 1
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a little girl in a striped shirt says sorry want me to call you a wmbulance ALT: a little girl in a striped shirt says sorry want me to call you a wmbulance
03.02.2026 09:50 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Europeans after managing to prevent the collapse of NATO for another 1-2 weeks…

#Europe #Rutte

22.01.2026 07:46 👍 939 🔁 315 💬 25 📌 20
Table which indicates the size of venture capital funding per capita for a number of countries. Top country is US, followed by Singapore, Israel and Finland

Table which indicates the size of venture capital funding per capita for a number of countries. Top country is US, followed by Singapore, Israel and Finland

Quite interesting, didn't expect Finland to be so high up. The table is from the Daily shot

23.01.2026 06:28 👍 9 🔁 4 💬 0 📌 1
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Pitää tehdä jotain – ja tämä on jotain Rakennemuutoksista toipuminen kestää mutta talous palautuu kyllä kasvu-uralle ilman erityisiä toimia. Lue SAK:n Ilkka Kaukorannan kirjoitus.

Koska aina pitää tehdä jotain! Tässä on hyvä pohdinta aiheesta www.sak.fi/blogit/pitaa...

15.01.2026 07:47 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Image shows the impact of import tariffs on high-tech goods imposed by the home country. Top left shows Home GDP, income decomposition; top right shows Foreign GDP, income decomposition; bottom left shows Home GDP, expenditure decomposition; bottom right shows foreign GDP, expenditure decomposition.

The Trump administration’s sweeping tariff measures are intended to increase the competitiveness of US firms – especially in high-tech sectors – and reduce US trade deficits. This column discusses the impact of trade policies on innovation and technological hegemony. The analysis suggests that large and persistent changes in tariffs are likely to affect firms’ innovation decisions and the pattern of technological hegemony. However, countries should be wary of using trade policies to boost innovation by their domestic high-tech firms, since the strategy may easily backfire.

Image shows the impact of import tariffs on high-tech goods imposed by the home country. Top left shows Home GDP, income decomposition; top right shows Foreign GDP, income decomposition; bottom left shows Home GDP, expenditure decomposition; bottom right shows foreign GDP, expenditure decomposition. The Trump administration’s sweeping tariff measures are intended to increase the competitiveness of US firms – especially in high-tech sectors – and reduce US trade deficits. This column discusses the impact of trade policies on innovation and technological hegemony. The analysis suggests that large and persistent changes in tariffs are likely to affect firms’ innovation decisions and the pattern of technological hegemony. However, countries should be wary of using trade policies to boost innovation by their domestic high-tech firms, since the strategy may easily backfire.

Large & persistent changes in tariffs affect firms' #innovation decisions and the pattern of technological hegemony. Countries should be wary of using trade policies to boost innovation, as the strategy may easily backfire.
@lucafornaro.bsky.social & Martin Wolf
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

13.01.2026 10:01 👍 6 🔁 4 💬 0 📌 0
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Suomessa yritysrakenteiden uudistuminen on ollut 2010-luvulla vilkkaampaa kuin Yhdysvalloissa, selviää @labore.fi tuoreesta analyysistä. Sen laativat johtaja @maliranta.bsky.social ja johtava tutkija @paolofornaro.bsky.social.
Tiedote ▶️ labore.fi/julkaisu/suo...
Analyysi ▶️ labore.fi/julkaisu/kas...

13.01.2026 05:38 👍 5 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 1
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Nuevo episodio de Future is Blue.

Hablamos con @LucaFornaro.bsky.social y @miguelgonzsim.bsky.social sobre fiscalidad, innovación, aranceles y la productividad europea.

¿Qué puede hacer Europa para salir del estancamiento?

Escúchalo aquí: share.transistor.fm/s/7c29062f

02.12.2025 09:00 👍 4 🔁 5 💬 0 📌 0

"Russia is an undefeatable juggernaut against which Ukraine could never hope to score victories. That's why it's imperative we limit Ukraine's military size so as to give Russia confidence Ukraine won't attack it."

Do these people fucking hear themselves?

24.11.2025 09:58 👍 440 🔁 108 💬 14 📌 2
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Are public debts in the European Union sustainable? This recent article is a great introduction to this topic, I learned a lot by reading it.

One thing that struck me is that debt sustainability analyses typically abstract from the impact of fiscal policy on productivity growth.

11.11.2025 14:38 👍 9 🔁 4 💬 1 📌 0

Accidental renaissance?

06.11.2025 19:39 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Well, thank you on behalf of Italy then

06.11.2025 16:01 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Palkkahajonta on kasvanut Suomessa tasaisen varmasti. Taustalla vaikuttavat erityisesti toimialarakenteen muutokset ja ammattien palkkaerojen kasvu, jotka muovaavat työmarkkinoiden dynamiikkaa, johtava tutkija @paolofornaro.bsky.social Laboresta kirjoittaa. Lue koko juttu ▶️ labore.fi/t&y/mista-pa...

08.10.2025 12:40 👍 3 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0
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Ruutu pois ja lukemaan! - Ehdotukset - Osallistuva budjetointi 2025-2026 - OmaStadi OmaStadi on Helsingin tapa toteuttaa osallistuvaa budjetointia.

For the Helsinki crowd, lots of nice proposals on omastadi, here is one on offering more reading opportunities in public spaces omastadi.hel.fi/processes/os...

06.10.2025 09:52 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

That would be a Jupiterian move

06.10.2025 08:31 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Graph of the heterogeneity of earnings volatility for salaried and hourly workers measured as a change from the previous month.

Over the past decade, cities and states in the US have enacted ‘fair workweek’ laws to stabilise worker schedules. This column uses administrative data on US workers’ paycheques and firms’ payrolls to document considerable monthly fluctuations in earnings. Pay instability is widespread, disproportionately hits lower‑paid hourly workers, and is largely driven by firms’ labour demand rather than worker-related determinants such as childcare demands. These fluctuations represent genuine, welfare-relevant risk that materially shapes household decisions and has attendant effects on the economy.

Graph of the heterogeneity of earnings volatility for salaried and hourly workers measured as a change from the previous month. Over the past decade, cities and states in the US have enacted ‘fair workweek’ laws to stabilise worker schedules. This column uses administrative data on US workers’ paycheques and firms’ payrolls to document considerable monthly fluctuations in earnings. Pay instability is widespread, disproportionately hits lower‑paid hourly workers, and is largely driven by firms’ labour demand rather than worker-related determinants such as childcare demands. These fluctuations represent genuine, welfare-relevant risk that materially shapes household decisions and has attendant effects on the economy.

Administrative data from US workers' paycheques and firms' payrolls show considerable monthly fluctuations in earnings. Pay instability is widespread and represent a genuine, welfare-relevant risk.
@ganong.bsky.social, P Noel, C Patterson, J Vavra, A Weinberg
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

03.10.2025 08:09 👍 6 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 2
Reforming the education of economists in Europe: Breaking the tyranny of the top five Many European countries have adopted the American model of doctoral training and academic evaluation. While this model suits America’s vast, mobile labour market, in Europe it has created perverse incentives and distorted research priorities. This column argues that Europe needs a more pluralistic, socially grounded, and inclusive system for the training of economists. It proposes a two-track approach for PhD training and evaluation that balances both frontier research and applied economics and policy. Europe should also consider broader evaluation and promotion criteria, more diversified PhD programmes, invest in policy-oriented research institutes, and promote the social relevance of the discipline.

cepr.org/voxeu/column...

29.09.2025 07:46 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Talousennuste vuosille 2025-2027: Taantuman jälkeen kasvutekijät kunnossa? "Laboren syksyn 2025 ennusteen mukaan Suomen talous kasvaa 0,6 prosenttia vuonna 2025. Suhdanne kohenee vuosina 2026–2027, jolloin BKT-kasvu vauhdittuu 1,5 ja 1,4 prosenttiin."
Lue lisää! ▶️ labore.fi/julkaisu/tal...

25.09.2025 04:02 👍 3 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 1
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Some thoughts on the interactions between public debt, public investments and productivity growth in the euro area. Key risk is that the union ends up being split between a fiscally sound/high growth block and a fiscally stagnant one.

www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/sint...

23.09.2025 08:45 👍 6 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 0

can't really begin to explain the extent to which I do Not want to be filmed without my knowledge by someone wearing smart glasses while out and about

18.09.2025 08:22 👍 1587 🔁 334 💬 91 📌 27