In our lead story this morning we write that the Ukraine war is becoming increasingly unsustainable for both sides – Russia, too, is reaching the point of exhaustion.
www.eurointelligence.com
our lead story this morning is about Germany’s projected increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio from 60-80%. The appetite to agree to more European debt, and the fiscal space that is left, will fall dramatically.
eurointelligence.com
In our lead story this morning, we write about the peace that descended on the Middle East this morning and wonder what will now happen to Iran’s nuclear programme.
www.eurointelligence.com
In our briefing this morning, we look at the long-term consequences of the US strike against Iran, and struggle to find any good outcomes.
www.eurointellingence.com
Pedro Sánchez is right. The Nato 5% target will over-extend European countries financially, weaken their fiscal position, and ultimately be counter-productive for their security. A fine mess. Our lead story in Eurointelligence this morning.
www.eurointelligence.com
Here is my latest column in Eurointelligence on why I no longer support Eurobonds.
www.eurointelligence.com/column/goodb...
In the latest edition of our new long-format podcast, our team discusses the geopolitical consequences of the war against Iran.
www.eurointelligence.com/podcasts
In our lead story this morning we take wonder about what China and Russia will do in response to US military action against Iran;
www.eurointelligence.com
Has von der Leyen just hoisted the white flag in the trade talks with the US with her U-turn on China?
www.eurointelligence.com
In our main story this morning we write about the appreciation of the euro and the effect this will have on transatlantic trade, coming on top of the tariffs
www.eurointelligence.com
My column in UnHerd on why the West is winning all the battles, and losing all the wars.
unherd.com/2025/06/the-...
Our lead story this morning on why risks of a geopolitical catastrophe are higher today than at anytime during the Cold War.
www.eurointelligence.com
In our lead story this morning we write that the OECD has found the answer of what to reform in Germany – finance and fiscal - but the message is not getting through
www.eurointelligence.com
In our lead story this morning, we write that gold has overtaken the euro as the world’s second largest reserve asset – so much for the euro taking over from the dollar...
www.eurointelligence.com
A column by my colleague Jack Smith in Eurointelligence about the anti-immigration policies of Mette Fredriksen's, the country's social democratic prime minister.
www.eurointelligence.com/column/can-t...
In our new longer-format podcast, our team discusses widely underestimated supply chain interdependencies between China, the US and the EU.
www.eurointelligence.com/podcasts
European companies are experiencing a massive real exchange rate shock, as evidence mounts that China is diverting trade earmarked for the US into European markets.
www.eurointelligence.com
In our lead story this morning, we write about one important aspect of western sanctions hypocrisy. Some energy policy relationships with Russia have been so deep that some countries, including Japan and France, are struggling to extricate themselves.
www.eurointelligence.com
my latest column in UnHerd on Elon Musk.
unherd.com/2025/06/musk...
One of the silliest ideas we have heard in a long time is the one that the EU can win a trade war against the US. The EU is not China.
www.eurointelligence.com
In our newsbriefing this morning we write that for all the noise, the signals we receive from the Trump administration are clear: the trade tariffs will come; the debt will rise; growth will fall. This is what usually happens before a financial crisis.
www.eurointelligence.com
In our lead story this morning we write about why Geert Wilders blew up the Dutch government, and what he hopes to get from new elections. His gamble might pay off.
www.eurointelligence.com
Our lead story this morning is about the absurdity of numerical defence spending targets. The history of numerical fiscal targets should be a cautionary tale.
www.eurointelligence.com
here is my latest column for UnHerd on why Lawfare almost always backfires.
unherd.com/2025/06/lawf...
In our lead story this morning, we discuss the mindbogglingly large number of avenues Donald Trump has at his disposal to impose trade tariffs
www.eurointelligence.com
In our lead story this morning, we write about a notable relaxation in Russia’s demands for a peace deal: Russia no longer insists on full control of the four Ukrainian oblasts it previously claimed, and on Ukraine’s de-militarisation.
www.eurointelligence.com
my latest UnHerd column: "Trump’s ideal counterpart in a negotiation is a king, a tyrant, or a British prime minister...The European Commission is not a principal agent. It is more like an estate agent. It collects offers for consideration."
unherd.com/2025/05/why-...
In our lead story we write that the purpose of Donald Trump’s 50% tariff threat is to make the 20% look good – like we have won something.
www.eurointelligence.com
In our latest podcast, our team discusses the elections in Romania, Poland and Portugal, and what it tells us about the far-right.
www.eurointelligence.com/podcasts
In our briefing today we discuss the impact of the US budget on the rest of the world. Spoiler: it’s big, but not so beautiful.
www.eurointelligence.com
