Worth looking at #Putin remarks about #Russia and #Israel-#Iran at #SPIEF2025 in full - they reveal a lot about his current thinking:
-He says that "those who promote ... narratives about Russia's unreliability as an ally are provocateurs"
🧵
Putin: “I’ve already said that Russians and Ukrainians are one people. In that sense, all of Ukraine is ours. … We have this old rule, that wherever a Russian steps foot — that’s our territory.”
Whatever this is, it’s not a president preparing his people for compromise.
There’s a bad conspiracy theory going around that Bob Woodward claims in his book ‘War’ that the AFU allowed 30,000 Russian troops to quietly withdraw from Kherson due to US pressure on Kiyv. It’s false on all counts. 1/
Another quarter another Veteran Missileer magazine issue.
It has many interesting bits, but mostly nichie ones, ie clarifying that the technical requirements for Rif radio link came from suggestions for improving Efir-M radio link.
1/3
Efir-M is a dual band (MW/LW) radio link, acting as a robust (UWB) back up to the local cable network from mid 70s, allowing transmission of launch commands from low level CPs (Division, Regiment) to the launchers (ie silos)
2/3
Whilst we will have to see what happens, feels like doubling down on a gamble that had dubious success in the first place. Doubling down on Kursk whilst other issues persist on the front seems increasingly risky.
The Russia-Africa Monitor no. 11 is out! A slow week with fewer links, but much to comment about Moscow's latest moves in Libya… and Algeria. Check it out! open.substack.com/pub/klyszcz/...
Ukrainians have continued their attacks in Kursk. Today, an armored column advanced towards Bolshoye Soldatskoye, and reportedly fighting is ongoing in other villages too.
Unfortunately, I find it unlikely that these actions could produce very significant results. 1/
Ukraine’s decision to make new brigades, instead of replacing losses at the front line among the best and most experienced units, had proven to be one of the more puzzling force management choices given the battlefield situation and problems with mobilization. 16/
A long thread on the war and the current situation. Although the worst-case scenarios didn’t materialize in 2024, it was the most difficult period since spring 2022. There were positive developments, and bright spots, but the current trajectory is negative. 1/
Something fresh to read on disruptive tech and strategic stability by your truly in the latest Russia in Global Affairs issue: Disruptive Technologies as a Source of Strategic Destabilization.
Happy new year everyone 🎉
Russian annual launch rate fell to its lowest level in the 21st century with 17 missions in 2024. But Roskosmos promises to begin deployment of low-orbital "mega-constellations" in near future, which, if ever materializes, should boost the launch rate.
Details:
www.russianspaceweb.com/2024.html
Yeltsin resignation speech 1999
Putin inaugural address 1999
On this day in 1999, Boris Yeltsin resigned from the Presidency of Russia.
My newest for @RiddleRussia
Frosty relations: #Russia and the #EU in the #Arctic
it explores the history and outlook of EU-Russia Arctic relations in 2025, spotting various points of contention and a few glimmers of possible cooperation
ridl.io/frosty-relat...
Important development for 🇰🇷🇰🇵 watchers:
Colby argues US should shift focus from NK to China.
So, he urges South Korea to take more responsibility for its defense, even exploring nuclear options.
And he views DPRK denuclearization as unlikely, prefers arms control to denuke.
It’s by no means an exhaustive look at these things, but I do hope I get the time to write more extensively about some of the things outlined, especially the situation in Libya and how that may develop.
The piece gives a brief outline of what went down in Syria after HTS and allies launched it’s offensive against government forces in Aleppo, what Russia had at stake in the country and what may be next now that Assad is gone.
After a little bit of a break, got round to writing a short piece on the fall of Bashar al-Assad and some of the implications for Russia: russiarecap.substack.com/p/rr-2-you-c...
New Russia-Africa Monitor is out!
More details are emerging about Russia's post-Assad troubles in Africa, with new developments from Mali to Libya to Sudan. Plus, slightly fewer links (29) than usual because I caught a cold. :(
Subscribe! open.substack.com/pub/klyszcz/...
Looking through the recent US report on Chinese military.
Some interesting bits from my perspective:
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This likely refers to the deployment of the 5th gen combat NC3 (ИАСБУ), it's links, including in tandem with new weapon systems, and of the new overall C3 system for the service (that ИАСБУ is a component of), modernization of some key high level CPs.
6/8
Russian-Chinese consultations on missile defence and missile aspects of strategic stability were held on December 11 in Beijing.
The Sides had an in-depth discussion of these matters in the context of maintaining global and regional security and, in particular...
So 8 days on and this take needs updating. Russia has not (and does not appear likely to) brought to bear the capabilities required to save Assad. Russia’s foothold in the country is in an increasingly precarious position.
Apparent casualties amongst Russian SSO in Syria today as the rebels have launched an offensive. Whilst the VKS will inevitably bomb the offensive to a halt, it’s a reminder for Russia about how the Syria file is still one that needs attention. How does Putin balance an unstable ME with Ukr?
A YaRS regimental central position, courtesy of dr.Kornev's community on TG.
I believe that it is based on public land registry data, and shows positions of many key components of this position (ie radio apertures), if with imperfect markings data (ie wrong radio bands stated).
All-stars commentaries on the revised version of the Basic Principles of State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence: russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics...
#NukeSky
Regarding the BBC interview with the Russian (12 GUMO) officer. The unit “shut inside the base” is precisely the opposite of "we were ready to launch." Readiness means dispersal. He was "part of the base’s security unit." Putting it on alert is NOT preparing a launch www.bbc.com/news/article...
What happened in Chechnya after #Kadyrov.
Our new talk with
@chambersharold8
in English with Russian subtitles
www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWJI...
A reluctant, "I don't have any new content, so check out a good estimate of a counterforce/countervalue Russian laydown in Virginia". I intend to update this stuff soon and add Russia, China, the UK, France, and other countries to the targeting list.
github.com/davidteter/O...
