Predicting Congressional Election Results
Presidential approval & ideological direction of public opinion, not economics or party conflict, predict election results. That looks good for Dems
New #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript with Carlos Algara
www.niskanencenter.org/what-predict...
Constitution schmonstitution
We've got previews of *forty* different major elections taking place tomorrow. This is a post you definitely won't want to miss out on.
Quick reactions after learning that no, nobody could stop him. 1/ goodauthority.org/news/trump-m... 1/
Bar chart: Most Americans disapprove of US military action against Iran A new CNN poll, conducted by SSRS shortly after the US launched a military operation in Iran, finds that roughly 6 in 10 Americans disapprove of the attack. Initial reactions closely track the results of a CNN poll conducted last summer after the US launched airstrikes in Iran.
New from us: Nearly 6 in 10 Americans disapprove of the US decision to take military action in Iran, as most say a long-term military conflict between the two nations is likely, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.
www.cnn.com/2026/03/02/p...
The 2026 primary season is here, and so is The Downballot's very first primary preview of the cycle! We have our big rundown of what to watch in Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas.
NEW: More evidence that those who tried to overturn the results of the 2020 election are working with Trump administration officials to set the rules for the 2026 midterms. @dougbockclark.bsky.social
New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan, the state’s chief election official, said a virtual meeting he had with federal officials was “a routine meeting.” From @willskipworth.bsky.social #NHPolitics
percent of sentences in state of the union addresses since carter that express grievances. HUGE spikes for trump. 12% in 2020, 11% in 2026
a striking chart
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
Very interesting study. On the conclusion, I'll warn that low-effort mail-to-web surveys may not be the answer. In experimenting with these in the past, they can also produce poor estimates, particularly for Black voters. Incentives and/or live-caller surveys have been more effective
Mamdani, whatever else you can say, is an extremely effective politician
More funny than annoying that I set aside a day and a half to cover TXSen GOP candidates - and they canceled their events to appear w Trump in the hope he'll maybe endorse one of them.
Less driving for me! (But I like driving, that's where podcasts live)
www.semafor.com/article/02/2...
This is consistent with what we’ve found in our polling - term limits for Supreme Court justices are extremely popular and enjoy bipartisan popular suppprt
Dare I say it? With the right kind of elite alignment, it could even be “amendment-level” popular support (still unlikely)
March truly comes in like a lion for elections, and @taniel.bsky.social has a must-read guide on the MANY key races to watch next month.
NC Early Voting Continues to Break the Script
With the end of early voting this Saturday at 3 PM, NC's primary turnout is holding, Republicans haven’t closed the gap, and the real test now shifts to Election Day
#ncpol
ncpoliticscenter.substack.com/p/nc-early-v...
“Are we going to war?”
Senate Majority Leader:
“I don’t know the answer to that.”
The Article I Crisis, wearing a suit and tie.
Online opt-in surveys also find recent religious resurgence among U.S. young adults While this analysis focuses on claims of religious revival among young adults in the U.K., some opt-in surveys have pointed to a similar trend in the United States. Barna Group, a research organization serving Christian leaders, has used online opt-in survey data to make claims of rising churchgoing among young adults in the U.S. According to Barna, “Since 2019, both Gen Z and Millennials were the least likely generation to frequently attend church. Today, they are the most engaged.” However, surveys from Pew Research Center using random samples show no clear evidence of a religious revival among young adults. Nor is there clear evidence of religious revival in two other surveys based on random samples conducted by other organizations: the General Social Survey and the American Time Use Survey.
Is there a revival of churchgoing among US young adults? According to
Opt-in online polls: Yes
Surveys using random samples of the population: No
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/01/23/has-there-been-a-christian-revival-among-young-adults-in-the-uk-recent-surveys-may-be-misleading/
Thanks reporter Jim Saksa for quoting me generously in this article.
NEW: We're there. The midterms really are starting.
March has the year's 1st supreme court race. Primaries for Senate, AG, & legislature. Sheriff & DA races rocked by ICE. Special elections that may flip. Even a minimum wage measure!
My guide of the *75* elections to watch in March:
At a faculty meeting, all roads are the long way around.
Also, we knew who won that afternoon, and had to wait until the evening to watch the game on tape delay.
I just watched this again. How Gen X grew up watching the Winter Olympics. The crappy video quality, the Cold War, the USSR. It's like a different world.
youtu.be/qYscemhnf88?...
This is a skeet about Beethoven.
In "The Authoritarian Divide," Christopher Federico @chrispps.bsky.social, Stanley Feldman and Christopher Weber identify factors that have shaped and conditioned the sorting of Americans into different belief patterns and partisan camps as a function of authoritarianism.
cla.umn.edu/polisci/news...
This is a very good piece on running against the establishment and status quo in an age of populism and low institutional trust
This ruling is from a GW Bush appointee
👇🎯 "Democracy is a system in which parties lose elections"
We should stop tolerating claims about nonexistent voter fraud, neverending attempts to restrict suffrage & litigate electoral results, & lies about rigged elections. Other, more serious, actual democracies don't put up with any of this.
I couldn't get a clear view of our Long-eared Owls this morning, but the good news is that they're still here! 🦉❤️🦉 #Owls #CentralPark #birding
Gallup ends presidential approval polling. There are plenty of alternatives but having one firm back the 1930s was a great continuity. Here is my last update of their series. RIP.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
