Looking forward to the Green/Reform crossover now
03.03.2026 06:46
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Looking forward to the Green/Reform crossover now
.... and here it is:
news.sky.com/video/exclus...
Well, no, they’re not just as wrong. The bigger error is not seeing that “trying to win over voters from a party on the opposite end of the spectrum, whose values your core voters oppose” is not same as “chasing voters from party on same side ideologically whose values your core voters like.”
"Trying to compete with Reform not only feels inauthentic... but a betrayal of what Labour is supposed to represent. We must address the concerns and fears of voters, not play on them."
Damning stuff from Sadiq Khan
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
I just feel like, ideally, the Labour response to yesterday's result would have tried to talk people *out* of detecting to the Greens, rather than, y'know, the opposite?
I have bitter experience of something similar on a much smaller scale.
2012 Trent Vale by-election in Stoke. I ran it. Canvassing data indicated a comfortable Labour hold. But indie posters in people's windows far outnumbered Labour ones. Independents won.
At least in this by-election, simply wandering around counting posters was much more predictive of the result than the constituency polling! Easy to see even the correct ordering of the top 3
Importantly not just the Gorton side, but also Denton, albeit more muted:
bsky.app/profile/toms...
As the analysis starts of the Gorton and Denton result, I wanted to flag some aspects that my experience yesterday suggests are being over or under-played
(Caveats - I went to Longsight, Gorton and Denton town centres and spoke to as many people as I could, but it was mostly during the working day)
Their equivalent of Watford Gap services
Ha! It's true some artistic licence is needed
Arya Stark from Game of Thrones saying "When people ask you what happened here, tell them the North remembers."
Gorton and Denton to Number 10:
Simply wandering around counting posters is however surprisingly predictive...
bsky.app/profile/toms...
bsky.app/profile/toms...
Update: not so much shy as non-existing
March on Westminster today, Andy!
Go to say it's not looking good for the too close to predict people
As a matter of principle, you should vote for a party which is willing to switch to an electoral system that can cope with more than 2 competitive candidates
A Labour by election advert depicting the Gorton and Denton constituency and claiming that only they are competitive in every area
Meanwhile if you actually go to Denton you will notice approximately zero Labour posters and a surprisingly large number of Green ones. Maybe all the Labour voters are just very shy, we'll see...
I genuinely don't know how it's possible to spend any amount of time in Gorton and Denton without noticing the massive enthusiasm for the Greens and complete lack of enthusiasm for Labour, yet somehow this column manages it
Love all his books and I see he's got a new one out next month, hurrah
New Swingometer! The Gorton and Denton By-election: A tale of Two Manchesters
open.substack.com/pub/swingome...
"You're stuck with me"
After a big weekend, Andy Burnham is back to the day job: Mayor of Greater Manchester. In today's briefing, we break down Burnham's attempted return to Westminster, and what might happen next 🧵
Nobody who actually lives in Manchester thinks that. We're all furious with Starmer though.
YouGov MRP prediction for Gorton and Denton from September 2025, giving Labour on 30%, Reform on 24% and the Greens on 19%
Not sure why received wisdom says that Reform are the front runners to take Gorton and Denton from Labour. This YouGov MRP is from September at "peak Reform", and even then the Greens were doing well. Since then, nationally Reform are down 5 points and the Greens up 6...
The crossover is coming in more than ways than one...
Very bad for a Green is overstating it I think. The Levenshulme peninsula will almost certainly go Green now that Burnham has been clobbered. The Denton side is another story.
It won't be easy but it could hardly be better conditions for a Green win... plenty of people will be wanting to stick it to both Starmer and Farage
If only this guy could write the rules
PS - The fact that the media was informed of the NEC decision before I was tells you everything you need to know about the way the Labour Party is being run these days.
You would think that over 30 years of service would count for something but sadly not. 🤷🏻♂️