Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)

Who actually were the Hero Voters? Labour won in 2024 because of economically insecure voters, not social conservatism.

Have been a bit frustrated by some of the conversation about Labour's voter coalition.

I've written about who the "Hero Voters" actually were, how we won them, and what we need to do to earn their support next time.

chriscurtismk.substack.com/p/who-actual...

Really fascinating and important research here

If you want to chat to us about a project, have us come and talk to your team, or you have nothing specific in mind and just fancy a coffee on us, get in touch via our website or drop me a message.

convergent-opinion.com

At Convergent's core are two people who think polling can do a lot more than it usually does — and want to help organisations, political, social, and otherwise, get the insight they need to make better decisions.

We supported Steve and Persuasion with experiment design, MRP modelling, and data collection. Convergent is built on the idea that understanding what moves people in the real world often takes more than standard polling alone.

So proud to have worked with @steveakehurst.bsky.social of @persuasionuk.bsky.social and @38degrees.bsky.social on this deep dive into Labour's progressive defectors. This is also the first public-facing work from Convergent, a new agency where I'm a co-founder.

Polling from More in Common shows that Greens and Reform win a higher share of voters who struggle to make ends meet, while Labour and the Conservatives win those who are most financially comfortable

Reform UK and the Greens are hoovering up financially insecure voters. My piece this week looks at the return of Britain's class politics (with a twist) www.economist.com/britain/2026...

This is not a reasoned political response. Labour has spent two years making all the voting groups who backed the Greens feel unwelcome and unheard, and now attacks them for daring to back someone else. They believe Labour isn’t listening and Starmer seems determined to prove them right

Sources close to Shabana Mahmood pointing out that the polls show her policies are popular with Green voters.

Sources close to Shabana Mahmood pointing out that the polls show her policies are popular with Green voters, continued.

You know, if the stakes of the next election were lower, Blue Labour doing a “actually, the policies are really popular…it’s just that the people who say they like it didn’t vote for us” would be incredibly funny.

Community meme: I CAN EXCUSE FASCISM. BUTI DRAW THE LINE AT MERCANTILISM.

The Supreme Court:

Most annoying internet tic is how nothing can ever just be bad, it always has to be proof that things are worse now than they’ve ever been before

It’s now quite hard to sustain that ex-mining, pro-Brexit, Labour-to-Reform swing seats (via levelling up) have been overlooked or forgotten by Westminster. They’ve been the axis of politics 15 years. Why it hasn’t worked is the question

Gorton is really going to test the idea that progressive voters will naturally come back to Labour to stop Reform, or else naturally figure out who is best placed to beat them.

Super messy information environment where even the most informed voter might not be able to figure it out.

Tables are up now. The number of respondents for the headline voting intention, once don't knows and won't votes are removed, is 51.

<Meaningful stare>

Breaking: Matt Goodwin says his internal polling has him up by 814%.

So how much do you think our defence spending should increase by?

It continues to be a bad failure that essentially there's a policy debate that is obvious to you if you read a business newspaper OR the gov dot uk website or the MI5 threat update OR a decent policy Substack is basically invisible on the BBC and in 90 per cent of Commons debates.

British education in a nutshell

Also, "loudly proclaim your love for Reform voters!" is disasterous as an *electoral* strategy when the next set of elections - this year - is largely being held on terrain where Reform are weak, and Labour voters alienated by this kind of thing are over-represented

The gov' is hoping its new comms strategy will help its cost of living policies cut through. So far, they are not. In fact, at the Budget, the most supported policies around cutting energy bills, freezing NHS prescriptions, freezing rail fares were also among the least well-known announcements.

‘Once whispered, now discussed’: the rise of dubious claims of civil war in the UK Dystopian warnings once reserved for the far right have found a wider audience – but there are good reasons for scepticism

Good article this. Racism really is the reverse of a performance-enhancing drug, the mad, stupid shit it leads people to believe in and to do:

A real Good Samaritan One act of kindness that befell Leeds writer Bernard Hare in 1982 changed him profoundly. Here he tells his story.

i post this story every christmas, and will keep doing so until it stops making me cry

merry christmas xx

Watching linear TV for the first time in forever, and you know who *is* overrepresented in adverts?

People who look about 27, have two kids and a massive house.

The original yahoo website that has a list of 14 categories for finding sites on the internet.

Do you remember when the entire internet could fit under 14 categories?

quite fun that everyone was stunned by figures showing a massive decline in trips to america, then everyone realised it was a statistical artefact of a different date for easter, and then… there was a massive decline in trips to america www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...

Bus usage has been increasing across the North – but one of the biggest increases has been seen in Greater Manchester.

Is this a result of @andyburnham.bsky.social taking buses back into public control?

And are there other reasons for optimism?

Short 🧵

1/4

It's all so bizarre because ... we just don't have to live like this? Rather than pick Denmark to emulate, they could pick Spain. It has encouraged some immigration and is booming compared to the rest of Europe 🤷‍♂️

Surely has to be some sort of projection. I've been all over the UK and US and I've never seen inequality, poverty, or destitution of the type or at the scale that I've seen it in some American cities.

The British General Election of 2024 The British General Election of 2024 is the definitive account of one of the most consequential elections in recent times.

The Appendices for The British General Election of 2024 book are available (for free) under "Back Matter" at link.springer.com/book/10.1007...

The first 71 pages are constituency results analysis by John Curtice, @lottehargrave.bsky.social, @patrick-pme.bsky.social, and myself.