Rob Ford

Start of the story: It has been twenty-five years since a report of original research was last submitted to our editors for publication, making this an appropriate time to revisit the question that was so widely debated then: What is the role of human scientists in an age when the frontiers of scientific inquiry have moved beyond the comprehension of humans? No doubt many of our subscribers remember reading papers whose authors were the first individuals ever to obtain the results they described. But as metahumans began to dom-nate experimental research, they increasingly made their findings available only via DNT (digital neural transfer), leaving journals to publish second-hand accounts translated into human language. Without DNT humans could not fully grasp prior developments nor effectively utilize the new tools needed to conduct research, while metahumans continued to improve DNT and rely on it even more. Journals for human audiences were reduced to vehicles of popularization, and poor ones at that, as even the most brilliant humans found themselves puzzled by translations of the latest findings.

In 2000, Ted Chiag published a short story in Nature that started like this.

It’s been on my mind a lot these days.

Definitely recommend it and Chiang’s science fiction if you don’t know it already.

Over and over:

Either the ridiculously reckless Trump gamble kind of works out, in which case they learn they are unstoppable God-kings immune to consequences, or it doesn't and there are terrible ramifications for... mostly other people.

So utterly bleak.

The Two Deprivations Are poorer constituencies going green of turquoise?

10/ Thanks a lot for reading. The full article is here: parables.substack.com/p/the-two-de...
May be of interest to @sundersays.bsky.social @benansell.bsky.social @emmaburnell.bsky.social @christabelcoops.bsky.social @anandmenon.bsky.social

Intense Partridge vibes on display here

Between all the “cat ladies” and “angry Muslims” in Gorton and Denton you have to wonder why Goodwin ever wanted to represent this group of voters?

The problem for the govt is it is the govt. The truth will out: savings won’t arrive, costs will. And then the electorate will be angry at the betrayal, and rightly so. All of this is grimly predictable yet here we are with the most senior people in politics playing a dangerous game of make believe

We’ve heard a lot of pious talk from the PM an senior colleagues about populists who offer false solutions and ignore real problems. Yet here we have the Home Secretary offering a false solution while she and her Treasury colleagues ignore real problems.

Right now govt is making up an obviously false “saving” to justify its imm, while ignoring the obviously true cost of that policy (treasury projections assume a level of net migration Home Sec opposes and which is unlikely to happen). And these ppl wonder why trust in politics is declining.

'Starmerism' is being unbothered by such trivial concerns as 'is that even true, though?' or even follow-up questions like 'is this lie even a useful one for us to tell?'

No 10, Treasury, the Home Secretary's own team and the perm secretary should not let senior ministers make up stats.

Its a breach of the code to do it deliberately. Some of those involved may not realise this wasn't just sleight of hand on a 30 year lifetime cost, but a false claim about the policy

This was policy-based evidence-making used to give the backbenchers a soundbite & a challenge (where are you getting the £10 billion from) on the hope they won't spot it is both in 30 years + just made-up

But 2026 immig policy does seem to cost about £7-14 billion by eliminating net migration

The government is willing - as a political choice - to pay significant fiscal costs to get immigration down

But it can not fabricate fiscal savings of its settlement policy by presenting numbers which don't reflect its policy at all.

bsky.app/profile/sund...

Estimated lifetime net fiscal costs for care workers and their adult dependants

Document - which gets to £9.5 bn LIFETIME, then rounds it up to £10 billion - does not pretend it is trying to compare government policy to delay with not delaying.

Home Secretary's speech, "if not, we will see a £10 billion drain on public finances" pretends it did

www.gov.uk/government/p...

What govt have is the projection of a £9.5 billion lifetime cost (in 30 years time) if care workers stay for life (after they turn 65)

This is just NOT a calculation of what govt policy saves by making them wait to 2036-40 not 2026-30 then stay for life. (That is obvs a v small number)

This is pretty disgraceful.

The Two Deprivations Are poorer constituencies going green of turquoise?

1/ I have done a data dive on ‘The Two Deprivations’ and the govt’s Green-Reform dilemma: parables.substack.com/p/the-two-de...
It references the work of @luketryl.bsky.social @robfordmancs.bsky.social

New Labour, New Britain? How the Blair governments reshaped the country In this talk Professor Glen O'Hara discusses his new book New Labour, New Britain? How the Blair governments reshaped the country. The New Labour governments of the 1990's and 2000's seem a long…

What could the current Labour government learn from the Blair years?

In this talk @gsoh31.bsky.social discusses his new book 'New Labour, New Britain?: How the Blair governments reshaped the country' at @yorkstjohn.bsky.social. Watch it on YouTube here:

A sickening society is clear in these statistics

So why is it not in the news?

Powerful wake-up call from @chakrabortty.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

To give an anecdotal example, a lot of not usually political Instagram accounts in the area were talking about his views on women's fertility

It's hard to prove but I have a sneaking suspicion that Goodwin was a particularly poor choice of candidate too in that he had such a big online footprint it was inevitable that stuff would come out that would polarise the electorate. Elsewhere this might have helped him, not here

Pretty much every political scientist who could do maths said "not much of one" long before election day. Matt G picked a pretty terrible seat for Reform. But naturally, Goodwin is making that everyone's fault but his own.

I think that's Labour's first ever council by-election gain from Reform, or is there one I've missed...?

Murton (Durham) Council By-Election Result:

🌹 LAB: 50.6% (+17.6)
➡️ RFM: 39.6% (-4.5)
🌍 GRN: 4.8% (New)
🌳 CON: 3.1% (-2.0)
🔶 LDM: 1.9% (-2.3)

No Ind (-13.6) as previous.

Labour GAIN from Reform.
Changes w/ 2025.

Spital (Tamworth) Council By-Election Result:

➡️ RFM: 44.6% (New)
🌍 GRN: 20.4% (New)
🌳 CON: 19.4% (-18.9)
🌹 LAB: 16.6% (-23.4)

No Ind (-21.9) as previous.

Reform GAIN from Labour.
Changes w/ 2024.

Can AI Replace Social Science Researchers? No. No it can't. Come on, now.

New post: Can AI Replace Social Science Researchers? (No. No it can't. Come on, now.)

davekarpf.beehiiv.com/p/can-ai-rep...

During the Second Reading of the Representation of the People Bill, MP after MP got up to point out what's missing from it: fixing the voting system.

The problems with FPTP can no longer be ignored - and neither can the growing calls for PR. 📣

Here are just a few highlights:

The original revolt on the left report was more or less the opposite topic to this one - voters Labour was losing to UKIP back in the Ed M days!

Exclusive: the progressive voters abandoning Labour

That’s the summary! If you want, you can hear me talking about the full report on today’s New Statesman pod with the great @anooshc.bsky.social or her write-up on the NS website. open.spotify.com/episode/28Kr...

The other myth that needs busting is idea of this vote as ‘PMC Lanyard class’ or Muslim vote.

They're mostly frustrated lower middle class Millennial graduates. Recent homeowners or renters w/ housing costs they can’t afford. IT support, social workers, teachers. White. Normie!

Furthermore, the ceiling on total defections to the left is MUCH higher - because of the way the sociology of the Lab vote has changed over time.

You cannot over-correct and be too complacent about Lab/Reform switchers - they matter too. But Lab need both left & right swing to win.