@davidpalomera
Research and analysis. Political economy, care, social security and ecology. MSCA-Cofund Postdoc at @sdu.dk. The Sustainable Welfare Post at davidpalomera.com Member at @espaizerovuit.bsky.social and @tcaren.bsky.social
We're in uncharted territory- if WTI crude holds these gains tomorrow- the current rise of 29.9% or $27.16/bbl would be its largest single day price jump- in both percent and amount- ever. Ever. EVER.
European Green Deal 2 when.
El postureo verde de Repsol se va terminando. Dos guerras/golpes de EEUU sobre países petroleros y ya vuelve a ser rentable invertir en petróleo y dejar de lado las renovables.
Una transición verde que dependa de las fuerzas del mercado y de estas ratas capitalistas es imposible.
High oil prices can support greater adoption of renewables, but central banks should avoid raising interest rates in response to supply‑driven inflation, as this would increase financing costs for highly capital‑intensive renewable projects.
NYT and FT are both very good at reporting and warmongering
FT headline from this morning: "Most dangerous job on earth': the life of an Iranian ballistic missile crew" Modified headline now: "The hunt for Iran’s ballistic missile crews"
Imagine deciding that the initial headline for this piece on how ordinary soldiers fighting a defensive war on the ground with zero air defenses are getting vaporized at a rate that gives them a "life expectancy of days, and soon ... hours" conveyed too much empathy and had to be changed to this.
🟡 @financialtimes.com destaca que España está siendo el país de Europa que está logrando, durante esta ya primera semana de guerra en Irán, mantener los precios de la electricidad más estables y competitivos para hogares e industria.
www.ft.com/content/ac77...
1/3 El Consejo de la Productividad presenta su Informe Anual. Mi lectura, en @agendapublica.es:
agendapublica.es/noticia/2076...
Hoy escribo sobre la íntima relacion entre cuidados y democracia, una de las conclusiones de la primera parada del Congreso Multisede “Los cuidados que queremos”
www.publico.es/opinion/colu...
Woah, and we are finally here, the EU going full developmentalist after decades of neoliberal globalisation dogma.
No está de más recordar ante el cierre de Ormuz que la semana pasada la derecha tumbó el mecanismo que permite a Consumo topar precios en situaciones de emergencia. Se está trabajando en recuperar la herramienta, pero que no se olvide este golpe de Junts, PP y Vox a los consumidores más vulnerables.
What a day to cover this topic.
Short version: Financial hegemony is when you don't need to start wars to get what you want; and also when, if you 𝘥𝘰 start a war*, your borrowing cost goes down and your currency goes up.
* Which you'll be tempted to start one regularly.
Spain has become a beacon in a world marked by brutality. In Iran, people have every right to celebrate the fall of tyrants, but in Europe we cannot be complicit with the powers that placed those tyrants in power and that continue to destroy any hope for a world guided not guided by brute force.
River or sankey diagram showing the allocation of profits from global oil and gas companies to quantiles of the US wealth size distribution via financial system intermediaries, such as asset managers, and categories of ultimate beneficiaries, such as business owners, pension funds and shareholders in listed companies. The scale is hundreds of billions of US dollars, and ultimately 50.4% of profits reaching the US personal wealth distribution go to the richest 1% of households.
🚨NEW PAPER🚨
We all know the 2022 energy price shock fueled the cost of living crisis. It also caused a profit bonanza for the very rich. We show the US reaped the largest profits ($377bn) of any country. 50% went to the richest 1%, only 1% to the bottom 50%. A🧵 www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Breathtaking statement from Carney.
Basically that Iran's regime is evil and therefore Canada stands with US and Israel's war of aggression.
So much for the "middle powers" leading a nonaligned post-American world order. @katemac.bsky.social
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https://www.ft.com/content/7bbc4ad3-57f4-4cfd-b791-e50e625c2e0e
Amazon, Google and Microsoft staff are urging executives to back Anthropic in its escalating dispute with the Pentagon, pressing them to refuse any contracts that would enable autonomous weapons or mass domestic surveillance.
In a letter on Friday seen by the FT, worker groups representing thousands of tech employees said they would oppose any effort to dilute guardrails adopted by the AI start-up after its chief executive Dario Amodei rejected what he described as a “final offer” to continue supplying the US military.
“We know [the Pentagon] will rapidly seek to onboard other models without these guardrails in place, regardless of whether they try to force Anthropic to comply,” the letter reads.
“We are writing to urge our own companies to also refuse to comply should they or the frontier labs they invest in enter into further contracts with the Pentagon,” the letter said.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:u3smqiqgoclp6fi3qbkrgjwd/bafkreickf6t4xztfzq7exmh3otolyemzlypei4273qttdnegel44eork5y)
Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://help.ft.com/faq/gifting-and-sharing-an-article/what-is-a-gift-article/. https://www.ft.com/content/7bbc4ad3-57f4-4cfd-b791-e50e625c2e0e Amazon, Google and Microsoft staff are urging executives to back Anthropic in its escalating dispute with the Pentagon, pressing them to refuse any contracts that would enable autonomous weapons or mass domestic surveillance. In a letter on Friday seen by the FT, worker groups representing thousands of tech employees said they would oppose any effort to dilute guardrails adopted by the AI start-up after its chief executive Dario Amodei rejected what he described as a “final offer” to continue supplying the US military. “We know [the Pentagon] will rapidly seek to onboard other models without these guardrails in place, regardless of whether they try to force Anthropic to comply,” the letter reads. “We are writing to urge our own companies to also refuse to comply should they or the frontier labs they invest in enter into further contracts with the Pentagon,” the letter said.
The relative autonomy of tech workers, and the need for the bosses to obtains some degree of active consent from them, seems to me a central axis of the politics of big tech. There aren't many industries where you can imagine seeing something like this.
Left figure: Year-on-year change (in %) of monthly Chinese exports to the EU and the US (in USD). Right figure: Average year-on-year growth rate (in %) of monthly Chinese export values/quantities/unit values to the EU (in USD) of all HS6 product groups; pre-tariff period is January 2024 to March 2025; post-tariff period is April 2025 to December 2025. High US tariffs on imports from China in the first half of 2025 led to concerns about a large-scale redirection of Chinese exports to the EU. This column argues that these tariffs have so far caused only limited trade diversion towards the EU. Effects appear confined to a small group of highly exposed products, for which export quantities to the EU have risen and prices appear to have edged down. Thus, the macroeconomic impact likely has been very limited so far. The recent increase in Chinese exports to the EU seems primarily driven by structural factors like China’s growing competitiveness.
Patrick Schulte, Almira Enders, Andreas Esser, and Felix Strobel (@bundesbank.de) show that US tariffs on China did not cause large-scale redirection of Chinese exports to the EU despite concerns. Effects appear confined to a small group of highly exposed products.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
🚨 David Palomera (Univ. of Southern Denmark) explores at ICTA-UAB whether pensions really depend on GDP growth.
📊💡Drawing on 50 years of OECD data, he reflects on how pensions can adapt in a post-growth world.
@davidpalomera.bsky.social
#PostGrowth #Pensions #EconomicTransition
TOMORROW,
REAL-Postgrowth seminar series welcomes David Palomera @davidpalomera.bsky.social (University of Southern Denmark) for:
“Are Pensions Dependent on GDP Growth? An Empirical Analysis of Public Pension Spending and Generosity in the OECD”
🗓 24/02 ⏰ 11h📍hybrid
www.uab.cat/web/sala-de-...
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"La inestabilitat seguirà sent inherent al capitalisme, però governs i moviments socials han de treballar perquè els diners, la inversió i els mercats enforteixin la riquesa col·lectiva" nou article d'en @davidpalomera.bsky.social a
@elmoneconomia.bsky.social
elmon.cat/moneconomia/...
Hace unas semanas pude estar en una charla con Morris Ganz, el jefe de estrategia de Mamdani. Lo primero que dijo fue que poner el foco en la asequibilidad era una manera de cambiar el marco de la conversación desde la seguridad/crimen donde era prácticamente imposible ganar.
Es gracioso que Repsol sea una de las peores empresas fósiles también a nivel internacional.
🔵 OPINIÓ | 'Uns apunts sobre ‘La Turra’: invertir, banca i crisi sistèmica', per David Palomera (@davidpalomera.bsky.social)
Next week the REAL-Postgrowth seminar series welcomes David Palomera @davidpalomera.bsky.social (University of Southern Denmark) for:
“Are Pensions Dependent on GDP Growth? An Empirical Analysis of Public Pension Spending and Generosity in the OECD”
🗓 24/02 ⏰ 11h📍hybrid
www.uab.cat/web/sala-de-...
The public sector saw a 0.7 percentage-point increase in union density in 2025, rising from 35.7% to 36.4%. This growth reflected an increase of 236,000 unionized workers. The most notable development in public-sector unionization in 2025 occurred among federal government workers. Despite—and likely because of—the Trump administration’s aggressive attacks on federal employees and their unions, federal workers increasingly turned to collective representation. Union density among federal workers rose from 29.9% to 31.1%, the largest single-year increase since 2011. This increase represented a gain of 40,000 unionized workers—notable given that federal government employment fell as the Trump administration slashed federal jobs. Unionization among state and local government workers also rose—from 37.1% to 37.6%, reflecting an increase of 196,000 unionized workers. Private-sector union coverage increased by 227,000 in 2025, pushing the unionization rate up from 6.7% to 6.8%. Within the private sector, there were particularly large gains in health care and social assistance, retail trade, and educational services. In contrast, the traditionally blue-collar industries of mining, manufacturing, and transportation and utilities saw declines. Construction was one heavily blue-collar sector to buck this trend, posting substantial gains in union coverage.
Here's some good news - the number of workers represented by a union rose by almost half a million last year. www.epi.org/publication/...
I don't know exactly what but something has to be done about the current commoditisation of science. We researchers cannot continue publishing-as-usual in a world where for-profit corporations are enclosing precious knowledge just to boost their profits.
Sobre el estudio del efecto del cambio climático en la DANA de Valencia de 2024 publicado ayer en @nature.com, el mejor resumen son estas tres imágenes, comparando lo que pasó con su contrafactual (sin cambio climático, con temperatura preindustrial).
Son terroríficas y esclarecedoras.
They hide the true scam: the richest 1% using their wealth to buy back stocks and inflate companies with no sustainable model. The real pyramid scheme is the system that makes us bet on AI, stablecoins, and speculation. Only to make the top richer and the working class poorer.