Hugo Ferrinho Lopes

Very honored to receive the @ecpr-sep.bsky.social Best Paper Prize. I’m grateful to the jury for reading my work, and to Marco Lisi for suggesting this paper for nomination.

People significantly overestimate the social costs of changing their beliefs.

Partisans self censor and suppress dissent to avoid appearing disloyal and facing social punishment.

Reminding them of prior group loyalty can open them to changing their beliefs pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41627338/

No @jornalexpresso.bsky.social desta semana há um ensaio meu, da @mafaldapratas.bsky.social, do @joaoc.bsky.social e do @hferrinholopes.bsky.social sobre os efeitos do comboio de tempestades nas residenciais. Tentamos perceber qual foi o impacto no nível de participação e no sentido de voto. (1)

Why does mainstream accommodation of far-right and Eurosceptic parties often electorally backfire? In my 3rd dissertation paper, just published in @wepsocial.bsky.social, I argue that voters specifically punish internally divided parties for accommodation: doi.org/10.1080/0140...
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Another great episode of this podcast on political behaviour research - this time with @miguelpereira.bsky.social and his important insights on political elites

This is crazy. It would have taken years! of work:

Cerca de 25% dos militantes do Chega vieram de outros partidos. Maioria era PSD e CDS Um novo estudo sobre o Chega traça um retrato inédito da sua base e mostra que muitos militantes já traziam convicções à espera de representação política.

A @publico.pt feature today highlights my latest paper. Additional info here 👇

www.publico.pt/2026/02/14/p...

Many congrats!

Coming out in June.

(when @casmudde.bsky.social & I will be presenting it at the @ces-europe.bsky.social conference in Dublin)

Últimas sondagens publicadas e resultados das eleições presidenciais, 1996-2026 (1ª volta).

Dr. Lopes: Ventura Mobilized ‘Latent Populists,’ but Authoritarian Appeals in Portugal Have Limits - ECPS The qualification of André Ventura, leader of the populist radical right party Chega, for the presidential runoff marks a watershed moment in contemporary

www.populismstudies.org/dr-lopes-ven...

NEW PAPER ALERT! My paper, with @bjornhoyland.bsky.social , on how “policy loss” shapes support for the EU has just been published in @cpsjournal.bsky.social. Check it out!
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Just like me? Testing descriptive attributes as voting heuristics The lack of candidate diversity and the descriptive under-representation of groups such as women and young people in parliaments is a recurring concer…

Very interesting new publication by Leonie Rettig and @lukasisermann.com on descriptive attributes as voting heuristics - specifically age and gender:

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

“Nestas eleições, Ventura tem como objectivo transformar-se no líder da direita” O historiador e cientista político António Costa Pinto traça em conversa com o PÚBLICO as principais conclusões e análises da primeira volta das eleições presidenciais.

A minha análise da primeira volta das eleições presidenciais em Portugal.

@acostapinto.bsky.social

There’s a paradox around remote work. Jamie Dimon says it will kill productivity, while startups are hiring for remote roles. Who is right?

With Abhinav Gupta and Elena Simintzi we try to resolve this dispute

Paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Substack: arpitrage.substack.com/p/remote-wor...

Os portugueses e a inteligência artificial O investigador do Instituto de Ciências Sociais analisa a nossa relação com a IA a partir de um inquérito a pessoas com mais de 15 anos

Um ensaio no @jornalexpresso.bsky.social sobre as atitudes dos portugueses em relação à Inteligência Artificial, baseado num inquérito apoiado pela @caixaresearch.bsky.social. expresso.pt/semanario/id...

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Great — congrats!! 👏🏻👏🏻

Given the bad cold that I've had for the past few days (in the midst of the Australian summer 🤦‍♀️), waking up to this email was particularly sweet...

Coming soon in @ejprjournal.bsky.social: our YOUMEM study on gender differences in motivations for joining youth wings of young women and men ✨

Chega: The New Portuguese Far Right In the late 2010s, the Portuguese immunity to the far right came to a sudden end at the 2019 general elections, after the election of Chega’s leader – André Ventura – to the Assembly of the Republic. ...

An excellent collective study of the Portuguese populist radical right.

Latent populists activated? Party membership switching to the radical right Populist radical right (PRR) parties are expanding their grassroots despite widespread membership decline elsewhere. Yet little is known about who joins them and the implications of recruitment fro...

Out today. 50 free copies available here: www.tandfonline.com/eprint/FDB9Z...

Merry Christmas!

🎄 Now if this isn't the perfect Christmas gift for scholars of elections! A fresh @cses.bsky.social Module 6 Advance Release for you all to analyze and explore!

The accepted version is available here: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/ye9bc...

But past ties leave traces: switchers from the left feel warmer toward left parties/leaders and colder toward the right; ex-right switchers show the reverse.

Yet this does not appear to threaten intra-party cohesion. Switchers and first-timers look more alike than different on left-right and core PRR attitudes. When differences do show up, they mostly reflect where switchers came from (left vs. right), rather than switching per se.

About 1 in 4 Chega members are switchers (~25%). Most came from the right (82.4%), especially PSD and CDS-PP. A non-trivial minority came from the left (17.6%).

In a forthcoming study, I use survey data from thousands of rank-and-file members of Portugal’s Chega to compare “switchers” (former members of another party) with first-time party members (for whom the PRR is their first experience of party politics).