@ilmakunnasilari
Senior researcher @ Finnish Centre for Pensions. PhD, docent (dosentti). Poverty, Social Policy, Policy Evaluation, Life Course, Retirement. Orienteering. https://sites.google.com/view/ilariilmakunnas
Data-driven research, at its best, presents you with results that surprise you. 😲
When I began studying Seattle's minimum pay standard for delivery drivers, I personally expected to see high-attachment delivery drivers making more money after the policy went into effect. 1/13
Gabriel Zucman och Daniel Waldenström diskuterar förmögenheter och ojämlikhet på Stockholms universitet den 31:e mars. Öppet för allmänheten. Sprid gärna! www.su.se/enheter/nati...
Please check the program and consider registering for the event. The program and the registration link can be found here:
www.etk.fi/en/topical-i...
The first thematic part focuses on wealth, redistribution, and pension adequacy (with comments by Markus Jäntti (Stockholm University)). The second part addresses increases in the retirement age and their consequences (with comments by Ulla Hämäläinen (Ministry of Finance)).
I will be moderating our second Pension Research Forum in two weeks (16 March)! We have a total of five presentations. www.etk.fi/en/topical-i...
I recall answering some odd things, with the underlying idea of maximizing my chances of having the shortest six-month conscription. I do not, however, remember whether that question was included.
My colleagues at the Swedish Institute for Social Research, Social Policy unit, are seeking a postdoc for 2-3 years. Great opportunity! su.varbi.com/en/what:job/...
In Sweden, there seems to be approximately 10,000 people named Nova. I had to check since I have reen reading a Swedish children's book in which there is Nova.
Like the “uneducated” explanation, the “religious” one depends on a confusion between correlation and causation. Even if all women today with large families are religious, not all women who are religious have large families. Religion is correlated with total fertility, but not obviously causal.12 That is, something else mediates the association between religion and fertility. We don’t know what that is.
Some people confuse correlation and causation, some people confuse causation and “deterministic direct 1:1 causation” 🥲
Good points. A well-respected, well-known, top journal publishing this kind of stuff is just baffling. And as mentioned, has larger implications for the reputation of science.
We're all plugged too much into American online discourse
Catch up on our Inequalities Seminar with Professor Markus Jäntti ⏯️
Using Swedish data, he shows that mobility looks very different depending on which parent you compare (mother, father, or both), which children you look at (sons, daughters, or everyone), and what kind of income you measure.
👇️
First post of the year, new paper out today: we present possibly the biggest case of systematic Measurement Schmeasurement in tech use. It seems that most studies on gaming (videogame) addiction/disorder haven't measured gaming after all. This research took years, so long 🧵 doi.org/10.1098/rsos...
Vaikea kuvitella, että Suomessa melko lyhyen aikaan olleet vastaavat (mihinkään) kyselyyn. Tuo kysely on lisäksi ensimmäistä kertaa vastaaville 2+ kotitalouksille puhelinhaastattelu. Eli tuskin subjektiivisiin mittareihin ukrainalaiset vaikuttavat.
Yes, we have to move away from these ridiculously burdensome grant applications, laden with unnecessary boxes about "how you will ensure yoir outputs meets our 2025 criteria for excellence" or whatever.
Almost all of this will be GenAI from now on.
So just give us a 500 words on your idea.
Markets and Mobility: How Employers Structure Economic Opportunity
Intergenerational mobility, measuring the ability to achieve economic success regardless of family background, is a critical reflection of a society’s commitment to equality of opportunity. Rising income inequality has raised concerns about the potential erosion of upward mobility. While education has traditionally been viewed as the path to mobility, its transformative power is facing challenges in a rapidly evolving job market. This project reorients the focus of intergenerational mobility research by highlighting the labor market as an arena for the reproduction of advantage. It employs a comparative approach, using administrative data from four countries: Sweden, Austria, England, and the United States. It also incorporates evidence from a broader set of nations through cross-national surveys, longitudinal household surveys, labor force surveys, secondary data, and digital trace data. The project employs cutting-edge empirical methods, including quasi- experimental designs, event studies, within-family comparisons, decomposition analyses, counterfactual simulations, and diagnostic checks to rigorously assess the extent of inequalities in the labor market. The research investigates how family background influences the sorting of individuals to employers and workplaces, accounting for education and occupation, and explores variations in career progression within and between employers. It comprehensively catalogues and assesses mechanisms shaping workplace inequality, contributing to the development of social closure theory. Additionally, the project evaluates intervention strategies, encompassing both employer practices and government actions, to promote fair opportunity in the labor market.
JOB! I'm hiring a postdoc for 2 years on my ERC MaMo project.
Looking for someone with strong quant methods, ongoing work close to the project's aims, and a desire to publish in sociology. Start flexible in the next 12 months.
Formal call out shortly, but contact me first.
Suomen aktuaariyhdistys hakee arvioijaa meidän tulevalle pitkän aikavälin eläkelaskelmaraportille: actuary.fi/uutiset/tyop...
The recent literature on the u-shape indicates that it is quite much to do with (bad) statistical practices: e.g., academic.oup.com/esr/advance-... and www.cambridge.org/core/journal.... So the 'new thing' was perhaps not that useful also for other reasons. Thanks for interesting post!
Kaksivuotisen esiopetuksen kokeilun loppuraportti on julkaistu. Laajamittainen uudistus ei keskimäärin parantanut lasten akateemisia tai sosioemotionaalisia taitoja verrattuna nykyjärjestelmään. Juuri siksi laaja RCT-tutkimus oli välttämätön.
okm.fi/-/kaksivuoti...
#esiopetus #RCT #vaikuttavuus
Computational Social Scientists in the Nordics, unite!
🇩🇰🇫🇮🇳🇴🇸🇪🇮🇸
The brand new Nordic Society for CSS welcomes all researchers and practitioners based in the Nordics. The Society will promote student mobility, events, and education initiatives.
Join for free: nosocss.org/join.html.
There are many dubious papers on correcting for multiple comparisons. And the issue is so simple:
1) You need to control error rates of claims. If multiple tests inflate error rates, you must lower alpha.
2) you adjust on the level of a claim.
lakens.github.io/statistical_....
If we are banning cell phones for kids we need to be talking about banning chatbots for boomers
www.persuasion.community/p/my-chatgpt...
En usko, että asia selittää uutisoinnin mahdollista vähäisyyttä, mutta jos etukäteen korostetaan 150 000 köyhää lasta niin lähempänä 135 000 on kuitenkin vähemmän. Mutta kuten sanoin, joka tapauksessa huolestuttava kehityskulku.
Olin itse asiassa asiaa jo tuumaillut aiemmin syksyllä näiden kirjoitusten jälkeen www.hs.fi/paakirjoituk... www.hs.fi/paakirjoituk.... Samaa mieltä, että onhan tuokin kasvu aikamoinen.
Erittäin hyvä ja informatiivinen kirjoitus 👍
Tämä on erittäin tärkeä pointti.
En ole myöskään varma, että onko tuollainen ennusteiden "väärinkäyttö" lopulta edes käyttäjien tarkoituksen mukaista. Mikäli pienituloisuusaste lopulta on vaikka muuttumaton tai jopa matalampi, mikä on pienituloisuusargumenttien painoarvo vastaisuudessa?
Kinda scary that you're publishing a paper and then some of the best econometricians of your generation jump on the replication package and start to publicly dissect the results—not gonna lie. 😅
🔹 Mallin kannustavuus tehokkuuteen on heikko: ylijäämiin tai ennaltaehkäisyyn ei synny todellisia kannusteita (HYTE vain 1,5 %). Sen sijaan malli kannustaa alueita maksimoimaan valtion rahoituksen.
Johtopäätös: rahoitusmallia on kehitettävä, jotta uudistuksen tavoitteet voidaan saavuttaa. 3/3
